SOG Predictor Model - #1 Alabama (6-0) vs Kentucky (3-4)

No 500 yards on offense?

(a) Kentucky plays a very slow game, which slows down the other team

(b) I think we're going to run more, which will also slow things

(c) Kentucky's defense is average - not great but not a sieve. They also play a lot of bend but don't break (1st in the SEC in plays over 30+ yards allowed, 6 in 7 games but 7th in plays > 10+ yards), therefore again forcing teams to take more time.

TL/DR - Kentucky's entire gameplan (offense and defense) is to shrink the game. That shrinks total points, total yards, etc......it also means they have serious issues coming back from deficits, which then drives other teams to be content having the game squeezed down when they are up 21 points.


As for Vanderbilt, they were down 38-21 with about 4 minutes left and scored 14 pts and had 160 yards (out of 400) in the last 4 minutes playing catch up down 3 scores.

If we came out and threw the ball 50 times we could probably get to 50 points and 500+ yards. I just very much doubt we tilt the offense that way Saturday, and we certainly won't once we get a decent-sized lead because we know they can't come back unless we hand them points.


JMHO, and also why their stats are the way they are. I wouldn't be surprised to see us bomb them early and get out to a lead and then kind of grind them. It also depends a lot on how we defend their run game. If they average 4+ YPA they'll hold the ball for a while (even if they don't score much and punt from the 40 most possessions).

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Is this game 100% on? Any chance a schedule change rearranging the final games?

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It seems like the movement for future games will be Arkansas and then the open date, but I guess we won't know for sure until the deadline tomorrow.

All 11/21 games will remain as scheduled.

Unless, of course, they get postponed for the Rona.

Agreed

Initial line is Bama favored by 31.

Games this weekend were a perfect example of how hard it is to predict (a) the number of plays and (b) points scored based on yardage.

The prediction was for
- Alabama to run 70 plays and gain 7.12 YPP. We ran 66 plays and gained 7.71 YPP.

- Kentucky to run 65 plays and gain 4.84 YPP. They ran 57 plays and gained 3.14 YPP.

However, they had 3 trips to the red zone that garnered 3 points and threw a pick 6. On top of that, they lost 30 yards on a bad snap.



The other one is LSU/Arkansas

Prediction
LSU - 30 pts, 5.05 YPP, 6.99 Pass YPA, 3.68 Rush YPA
Arky - 37 pts, 7.47 YPP, 12.05 Pass YPA, 4.26 Rush YPA

Actual
LSU - 27 pts, 4.60 YPP, 6.45 Pass YPA, 3.02 Rush YPA
Arky - 24 pts, 8.36 YPP, 13.04 Pass YPA, 3.85 Rush YPA

LSU was WORSE than predicted and Arkansas BETTER than predicted - when the prediction said Arkansas would win by 7...........AND LSU WON BY 3

WHY?

LSU ran 91 plays. Arkansas ran 53plays.

LSU went 13/24 in 3rd/4th downs. Arkansas went 1/11 in 3rd/4th downs.

LSU had to thread the damn needle of staying in good down and distance and seeking out 1st downs, and they somehow did it. If LSU gets 1-2 less of those and Arkansas gets 1-2 more, LSU probably runs 15 less plays and Arkansas runs 10 more and Arkansas wins the game.