re: The college football season is about to be postponed.

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The main problem is when the hospitals get overrun.

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Oh, right, that thing we’ve been 2 weeks away from since March.

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Let's go with 0.25%. It's highly contagious, so, let's say without mitigation or interventions it infects 75% of the US population. At 0.25%, that's a little over 600k deaths.

The main problem is when the hospitals get overrun. In that case, you have additional deaths from people who would have been in the 99.75% that survive, but don't because they can't get treatment.

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Hospitals aren't getting over run. Measures that would actually slow things down cause other deaths and issues.

Also, that 0.25% number is the overall. In order to get real projections you need to do it by age. People below the age of 60 it's much lower, like 0.001% or something like that. But then above the age of 60 it also gets higher and by the time you get above the age of 70 it goes above the 0.25%.

I recently read that almost half the deaths thus far have been people in nursing homes.