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re: Pretend LSU beats Alabama in 2 weeks..
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:35 am to BHMKyle
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:35 am to BHMKyle
I mean you are preaching to the choir here Kyle. Clemson's schedule is possibly the worst major P5 schedule (especially when you tack on another crappy game in Charlotte) for a true title contender in years. They will have no marquee opponents AND almost no mid-level quality opponents. Their only mid-level quality opponents may actually hurt them overall, because they will end up being SEC teams that finished 6-6 or 7-5.
I personally think Clemson at this point is right at or near Alabama in terms of "respect" given by the national media/hierarchy, and if they are sitting on a 13-0 record, 28 game winning streak and fresh off a 15-0 national title season (that included a 28 pt win over Alabama) that there is a 0.0% chance they are getting left out of the playoff. Especially if Alabama's resume is overall pretty meh (better than Clemson's, but not eye popping). None at all.
That's why I say that LSU would have a much better shot - they'd have flashy wins, better metrics and a close road loss to a team with the longest home winning streak in college football.
I personally think Clemson at this point is right at or near Alabama in terms of "respect" given by the national media/hierarchy, and if they are sitting on a 13-0 record, 28 game winning streak and fresh off a 15-0 national title season (that included a 28 pt win over Alabama) that there is a 0.0% chance they are getting left out of the playoff. Especially if Alabama's resume is overall pretty meh (better than Clemson's, but not eye popping). None at all.
That's why I say that LSU would have a much better shot - they'd have flashy wins, better metrics and a close road loss to a team with the longest home winning streak in college football.
This post was edited on 10/25/19 at 11:39 am
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Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:39 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
That's why I say that LSU would have a much better shot - they'd have flashy wins, better metrics and a road loss to a team that hasn't lost a home game in 4 years.
You don't think the committee would be impressed with Duke's pass defense?
Posted on 10/25/19 at 1:08 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Clemson's schedule is possibly the worst major P5 schedule (especially when you tack on another crappy game in Charlotte) for a true title contender in years.
Exactly. And they'll get a pass as long as the next best team is somebody like Oregon. But the second that 4/5 line becomes a test between Clemson vs. Alabama, suddenly the talking heads are going to want to zero in on that soft schedule.
The way I see it, Clemson's schedule is no different than UCF in 2017 or Boise State several years back when they'd run the table. It's horrendous. And if you are going to play a schedule that soft, you better tear through it like an NFL team playing a junior high school team.
... Clemson hasn't done that. They needed OT to beat North Carolina already.
I have no doubt Bama is a better team than Clemson this season and I think everyone would agree with that. So if Bama loses to LSU but otherwise blows out every opponent, there is going to be a big debate about who should go to the playoff.
People are crazy if they think Clemson is going to ultimately win that debate.
quote:
I personally think Clemson at this point is right at or near Alabama in terms of "respect" given by the national media/hierarchy,
You are mistaken. They might have been there in January, but when you have to go to OT to beat North Carolina, that respect flies out the window. If Clemson had as much respect as Alabama, they wouldn't start the year #1... then slide to #2... then slide to #3... and now slide to #4 all without losing a game.
Their slide from #1 to #4 while staying unbeaten is a perfect metaphor for how much respect they have currently. Right now, its not as much as you think.
Posted on 10/25/19 at 1:41 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I personally think Clemson at this point is right at or near Alabama in terms of "respect" given by the national media/hierarchy
To show how this is not the case:
Going into the North Carolina game, Clemson was ranked #1 in the AP Poll with 1543 AP Points that week. Following a narrow, 1-point victory, Clemson fell to #2 but their AP Points dropped to 426..... that's a 117 point drop (nearly 2 spots per voter) for a 5-0 defending champ because of a close win that shouldn't have been so close.
How does this compare to some shaky Alabama performances?
In 2017, Alabama played a 7-2 Mississippi State team that went toe-to-toe with Bama for the entire game. This was a State team with zero impressive wins and two completely lopsided defeats against the two decent teams they had played (losses combined for 67 point deficit) . State led 24-17 with 10 minutes to play, and Bama didn't score the go-ahead touchdown until 25 seconds left in the game.
Alabama was #1 in the country in the AP Poll going into that game with 1,520 AP Points.... the next week, they stayed #1 and saw their AP Points RISE to 1,521.
In 2016, Alabama went to Oxford to face Ole Miss... a team that was 1-1 on the season. The Rebels enjoyed a two touchdown lead in the first half. Ultimately Bama held on to win 48-43.
Alabama entered #1 in the AP Poll with 1520 points. The next week they stayed #1 with 1,510 points. Only 10 of 62 voters felt the need to drop them a spot on their ballots.
In 2014, Alabama faced 3-2 Arkansas. The Hogs led 13-7 well into the 4th quarter before Alabama finally scored the go-ahead TD to finally win 14-13.
Alabama entered the week #7 because they were coming off a home loss to Ole Miss..... the next week, despite struggling for the 2nd consecutive week and barely beating a horrendous Arkansas team, Bama stayed put at #7 and increased their AP Points from 1,060 to 1,068. Any other team would have fallen another 3-4 spots in the polls.
My point is not that any of this was not justified. My point is that Alabama has the respect of the voters so much so that if they struggle when they shouldn't, they don't slip on any ballots.
Clemson obviously does not have that respect. They lost 117 points in the AP Poll despite winning. That doesn't happen to Alabama. Ever.
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