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re: Opinions will another 5 loss season get Gus fired.

Posted on 6/14/19 at 10:22 am to
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 6/14/19 at 10:22 am to
Depends on who the 5 losses are to.

If the losses come to Oregon, Florida, LSU (all away from home) in addition to Georgia and Alabama..... and all of those teams have the type season they are projected to have, I have a hard time seeing Auburn fire their coach. If preseason projections are correct, this is how Auburn's season would look under that scenario:

#2 Alabama- Loss at home
#3 Georgia- Loss at home
#6 LSU- Loss in Baton Rouge
#8 Florida- Loss in Gainesville
#10 Oregon- Loss in Dallas
#11 Texas A&M- Win in College Station
#21 Mississippi St.- Win at home

I mean yes, no major program is going to be happy with 5 losses, but if all 5 are against Top 10 teams and you still had 2 wins against Top 25 teams, do you really want to fire a coach and start all over?

Things should start getting easier for Auburn on the schedule front in the near future. If you look at OOC opponents along with their East opponents, here is how its looked during the Gus era using FINAL AP Rankings except for 2019 in which I'm using CURRENT PROJECTED PRESEASON RANKINGS:

2013: NR Washington State, at NR Tennessee, NR Georgia
2014: at #18 Kansas State, NR South Carolina, at #9 Georgia
2015: NR Louisville, at NR Kentucky, NR Georgia
2016: #1 Clemson, NR Vanderbilt, at NR Georgia
2017: at #4 Clemson, NR Missouri, at #2 Georgia
2018: #13 Washington, NR Tennessee, #7 Georgia
2019: #10 Oregon, at #8 Florida, #3 Georgia

Has Gus' Auburn program really fallen off the past few years because of a lack of talent/coaching or is it just that the schedule has been so brutal that no team would be able to handle it?

Obviously there have been some questionable coaching decisions, etc.... but I don't think Gus is the main problem.

Auburn's softening the past few years is in direct correlation with Georgia improving under Kirby along with their unbelievably difficult OOC schedule.

We all know the SEC West is the most difficult division in college football most years. There is no debating that. In fact its nearly impossible for any team to get through just the SEC West unscathed..... note most SEC West Champs have a a division loss. 2011 Alabama lost to LSU. 2013 Auburn lost to LSU. 2014 Alabama lost to Ole Miss. 2015 Alabama lost to Ole Miss. 2017 Auburn lost to LSU. Etc.

But Auburn is the only SEC West team who has to play East Leader Georgia every year. Then throw in difficult OOC games like #1 Clemson (2016), #4 Clemson (2017), #13 Washington (2018), and now projected #10 Oregon (2019).... how can anyone get through that gauntlet?

Meanwhile you've got Alabama playing Tennessee every year and playing these OOC foes:

2017: 6-Loss Florida State
2018: 10-Loss Louisville
2019: Duke

This has been a rough patch for Auburn but I think the schedule is mostly responsible for that. All things considered, Auburn has done fairly decent the last 5 years.

Starting next year, things get a bit easier:

2020: North Carolina, Kentucky
2021: at Penn State, at South Carolina
2022: Penn State, Missouri
2023: at California; at Vanderbilt

... OOC series with Baylor and UCLA to follow Cal. Penn State could be decent, and Mizzou and South Carolina are always capable of having a good year, but it gets more manageable IMO. You don't see a Clemson or a Florida on those schedules at least.

I think Auburn should hang on to Gus and give him a few more years. I think things are due to improve beginning next year if Auburn can weather this scheduling perfect storm.
This post was edited on 6/14/19 at 10:25 am
Posted by Leto II
Arrakis
Member since Dec 2018
21610 posts
Posted on 6/14/19 at 10:26 am to
quote:

LSU (all away from home) in addition to Georgia and Alabama.

I think losing those 3 gets him fired, regardless of what else happens. It should, at least. Yes, they are good teams, but there are always going to be good teams on our schedule. If he can't take care of at least a couple of those, then he's not the right guy for the job.
Posted by peepingcrxxms
Sumrall, MS
Member since Aug 2016
848 posts
Posted on 6/14/19 at 2:40 pm to
Jesus what a tough schedule. Auburn will be fortunate to go 8-4 with that gauntlet. Scheduling Oregon was ballsy with those east opponents.
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