re: Tua practicing and moving fairly well

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Haven't really asked specifically, what do you think about Oklahoma and the matchups?

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Bama O vs OU D:

Honestly, I think Oklahoma is going to fight valiantly, and get absolutely outmanned at every level. I think their only chance at any form of success is to get real creative with the blitz in the attempt to get negative plays, and take some chances for Pick 6s or scoop and scores.

I read on reddit a few days ago, and I'm paraphrasing, "Big12 defensive philosophy is getting 2 turnovers, 2 drive stops for a FG, or 2 big special teams plays. That's it. That's the entire philosophy. It's basically 'get a turnover, or just let them score'."

And there is some truth to that. Bama is going to score an Imperial frickton of points. We should run and throw at will. I think the o/u on pass interference calls on OU should be 7. They have no chance at coverage, and have no chance versus the run game. It will be a track meet. OU is just looking for a few big things to go their way.

Bama D vs OU O

Here's where the meat is, though. OU needs to score at will as well, and honestly - they are going to have some offensive success, particularly in the first half. But the simple fact is that Bama is also going to get some stops. OU's overall statistics are going to be way down from normal. It's just a fact. The opposing defense has improved just that much. Alabama's defense, while not as elite in ways as we're accustomed to, is from another dimension as compared to anyone OU has seen.

(This perceived dip in Bama defensive quality isn't real, though. It only seems so because this is the first season in CFB in which the RPO is universally used, and it's truly revolutionary. They will have to regulate balance back into the game, a la lowering the mound in baseball. They will have to institute a rule eliminating any downhill movement by Olinemen. It will definitely happen, likely by limiting the window to 1 yard downfield from 3. Even elite defenses give up yards now. The game has changed. It seems like Bama isn't as good as before, but it's a mirage - they are. The cards are currently stacked against all defenses.)

I expect our defense to have one goal above all others: force Kyler Murray to beat us from the pocket. Collapse the pocket from outside in, and never run upfield past Murray. Any OU lurker is saying to himself, "Harumph. Kyler will throw all over Bama. He's super accurate." I watched OU a good bit this year, and while Murray does have nice touch and throws a nice ball, he's been throwing into pachyderm-sized windows most of the year. Against Bama the windows are going to shrink, and shrink massively. Add to that the fact that Bma is going to plug the run quite well, close distances faster than OU is used to, and tackle better in space as well - and it becomes clear that OU is going to have periods of struggle.

And that's it. OU is going to have some success, I'm sure. But over 4 quarters, Bama is going to rush the passer better than OU has seen all year. They are also going to pursue the ballcarrier with more team speed than OU has seen all year. They will similarly fill the run gaps better than OU has seen all year, as well as blanket receivers in a way the OU has not seen. All Year.

Bama will get some stops, particularly in the second half. Bet the OU points under in the second half, no matter what it is.

SIDE NOTES:

If I'm OU, I run the ball down Alabama's throat, or try to, at least. Speed, power, wide, up the gut - all of it. I go against tendency and run the Single Wing all first half. Get Alabama to adjust to something you're not gonna do in the 2nd half. In the second half, I come out throwing the football and scrambling with reckless abandon, out of some really confusing sets. Strange stuff, where it gets screwy with who's eligible and who's not. Get Bama on it's heels defensively by attempting to neutralize the success of the halftime adjustment. And win or go down in a hail of bullets.

Having said all that... I think this is going to be like playing Johnny Manziel's TexAM but with a really bad defense. Maybe akin to playing Ole Miss with Sonic the Hedgehog at QB. Yeah, you got a puncher's chance. But we're probably gonna double you up by the end of the game, 58-28, or 62-32. OU will need an Imperial frickton of points + 2, and I don't think they can get there.

Also, Murray winning the Heisman decreased their chances appreciably. The team got mad. Like a world class boxer getting punched right in the nose in round 1. He's paying attention now. Focused.

Murray might not finish the game. No dirty hits or any of that nonsense. It's just that his skill, priorities, and skeleton will be tested against a defense that's built for and seen this kinda stuff, and wants to break him in half. I think it could get ugly after a few Bama defenders arrive at Murray in a bad humor.

One key to Bama's success is Shyheim Carter. He's really come on as a versatile weapon for us, settling into that Star role nicely. He's going to be asked to do a lot of very important things on the 29th. If Carter plays well, Murray likely won't. Also, I think getting an OLB or 2 back will be really huge. Maybe game-altering huge.

Bama will likely attempt zero FGs. We will also likely take the football if we win the toss.