re: S&P+ Matchups - Orange Bowl : #1 Alabama vs #4 Oklahoma, comparative team (Arkansas, FYI)

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I think Connelly's takes in to account what you would expect a team to do with that schedule, as in a team going undefeated with a shitty schedule will be higher than team that went 6-6 with a tough schedule.

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Correct, I was actually going to note that as the 2nd reason but forgot to add it.

Basically, Sagarin is measuring a team's resume. Connelly is measuring how good a team is. Those two things don't always come out the same.