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re: Statistical Game Preview: Louisiana State vs Mississippi State
Posted on 10/15/18 at 5:58 pm to LSUgrad08112
Posted on 10/15/18 at 5:58 pm to LSUgrad08112
quote:
Just a question out of curiosity, am I overlooking something or do you adjust for strength of teams played? And if not, do you see a difference in your prediction accuracy early in the season vs. later in the season or do the factors like Vegas line that you take into account usually straighten that out?
It's taken into account based on the Sagarin Rating and by accounting for the +/- percentage difference in the team's Average Offense versus their already-played opponents average defense.
For example, for Miss State:
Offensive Yards per game = 430.7 ypg
Opponents Yards per game allowed (i.e. teams they've played average defense) = 368.6
So State has a net +16.8% offensive yards versus there season-opponents-played average defense... It's a little clunky but it helps dial it in a bit.
On the other hand:
LSU defense allows = 340.3 ypg
LSU opponent's offenses average = 434.7
Therefore, LSU holds their opponents to -21.7% of their typical offense.
So if you take the Miss St. +16.8% Off and the LSU -21.7% Def, you can see that LSU will probably hold Miss St. under their offensive average for this game, by roughly 5%... (without other variables included)
However, that is only 1 of about 10 other variables put into the calculation.
Anyhow, the calculation / formula is just a fun thing for me and for some discussion. The real nuts and bolts of the comparison is seeing how Team A Offense stacks up to Team B Defense, side-by-side. My first iterations of this comparison (back in 2009) didn't even have the score predictions - it was purely statistics comparisons.
This post was edited on 10/15/18 at 6:00 pm
Posted on 10/15/18 at 6:14 pm to SpreadsheetAg
Best post on rant so far this season
, thanks for taking time. LSU vs State looks like a good matchup from what your analysis shows.
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Posted on 10/15/18 at 9:03 pm to SpreadsheetAg
You've probably done this team analysis spreadsheet enough that you have a master template that allows you to just plug in the each teams info each week. Would you be interested in sharing the template?
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