Florida recruiting

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went over to the 247 gator board and it looks like there is indeed some concern

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Their recruiting thread on the Florida board here is pretty rosy. Mostly Straws convincing the others that all is well.

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If we look at recruiting through August 1 for Jim McElwain, Will Muschamp and Urban Meyer’s second and third recruiting classes, a clear trend emerges. The percentage of top-300 players compared to total recruits is remarkably similar prior to August 1 and after National Signing Day is over.

The implication here is critical. Were Mullen to not pick up any more commitments before August 1 (or pick up another 3-star or two), he would have a profile that looks just like Jim McElwain’s 2016 recruiting class.

That class was ranked 12th nationally, with 7 top-300 players and zero 5-stars. Compare that to Zook, Muschamp and Meyer who had 15, 18 and 11 top-300 players in their second classes ranked 1st, 2nd and 3rd nationally.

My recollection was that McElwain filled out the 2016 class late with 3-star candidates but the numbers above show that I was wrong. He was filling the class with 3-star players right from the jump, which is very similar to where Mullen stands now.

What this should do is point out the flaw in the “Mullen has to show it on the field and the recruits will come” crowd.

Florida went 9-3 in 2005 in Urban Meyer’s first year, and the percentage of elite players after August actually went down. Admittedly Meyer only had three commits by August, but those players were all elite.

Will Muschamp was able to sell the program before he ever coached a game, reeling in 12 commitments, 8 of whom were elite by August. The Gators then struggled to a 7-6 record in Muschamp’s first season, but were able to bring in the exact same percentage of elite players during/after the season as before.

Jim McElwain struggled early, with only four of his 12 commits qualifying as elite prior to the 2015 season. You could actually make an argument that McElwain had the most on-field success in his first year (10-4, SEC Championship Game). What you can’t argue is that McElwain struggled after August as well to bring in elite recruits, as only 7 of his 25 commits in the 2016 class were ranked in the top-300.

This doesn’t just hold for the Gators. Kirby Smart’s bump class in 2017 had 10 commits by August 1, 7 of them top-300 players (70%). The Bulldogs finished the 2017 class with 17 top-300 players out of 26 commits (65%). It didn’t matter that Georgia struggled to an 8-5 record – two games worse than under Mark Richt the year prior – when it came to recruiting.

But perhaps you’d argue that it’s unfair to compare Mullen to Smart, who has proven to be an elite recruiter. Well, what about Penn State’s James Franklin? Franklin came from a school (Vanderbilt) with little football tradition and went 24-15 and finished ranked his last two seasons.

Franklin’s bump class at Penn State ranked 14th nationally with 8 of 15 commits prior to August ranking in the top-300. It is true that Penn State struggled in 2014 (7-6) and that the percentage of top-300 recruits decreased to 44 percent in the final class. But that number increases to 52 percent if you widen the definition of elite and include two recruits who ranked 306th and 316th.

The take-home is striking: by August 1 it is clear whether a coach is going to bring home a good overall recruiting class or not

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