re: Do you think your program will win tCFP within the next 20 years?

As programs are currently constituted:

Bama: 70% chance - no need to say much. 70% may seem low but it is not as easy as Bama has made it seem. No one else has won more than 1 in the last 12 years. It's tougher than ever.

UGA: 50%. See above. UGA does not yet know all of the difficulties and pitfalls of being consistent. Then you have to win 3 post season games, almost all against top notch competition without the benefit of home-field advantage. Just because one is close one year, means nothing for the next. Recruiting usually only gets one so far. Bama is a serious road block for the foreseeable future.

UF: 10%. Great talent pool, very good history, good coach. But Bama, UGA, FSU, +.

AU: 10%. High highs, good coach, good history. Bama is a blessing and a curse. Getting past them is a hard, OTOH, hiding in their shadow and the confidence of beating them enables you.

IMO, as currently constituted, no one else has a legitimate chance to make it. To think LSU can overcome Coach O for a NC is too much. For A&M, JF is OK, but not what you think. No one else is viable in the least.


Long term, as a program:

Bama - Saban for 5-10 more years. After that, too much history. Bama has had 5 coaches with at least 7 years and an 80+ winning % from 1923-. 3 within the last 40 years. No other SEC program except UT has even one - Neyland, who last coached ~65 years ago and UF with Spurrier and Meyer (6 years). In the poll era (AP and/or UP/Coaches), 1936-, Bama has 12 NCs (1941 is invalid), the rest of the SEC combined 11: LSU & UF 3, UT & AU 2, UGA 1. Alabama can hardly handle post-Saban as badly as post-Bryant. It will more than likely be like Wade to Thomas.

UF: their recent history has shown that with the right coach they can win big. They still exist in the middle of a boatload of talent.

UGA: their history is good but not great, especially at the national level. Things can change and they too sit on a motherlode of talent. Kirby has been very fortunate with being with Saban and falling into the UGA recruiting lap. But even if he is not a great coach, which I question, they can still win a title. But it's not going to be like what they now think. UGA has been a kind of UTex lite. Good University, cool social scene and a good but underachieving football program; but the first 2 create an unfounded snobbery that robs their football program since football is played by men and men are not cool today. But maybe you've now made a commitment to become a Cro-Magnon.

LSU: ah LSU, the drunken beauty. Now she's fallen on the floor into her own vomit. But the next coach can clean her up in a moment. But you need someone who has some sense at that University. Do y'all have someone ? Let me hear ya, LSU. I wantcha back. Though we've had our foot on your neck for most of your history, you've made it fun and exciting.

AU: the curse of Bama. But you've handled it as well as anyone could. As noted earlier, it can be a bit of a blessing too. It may not be 53 years between titles, but it will probably be longer than you think. You schitzo you.

A&M: the optimism of money and Texas and talant. But money can't buy you top notch football success, even talent and certainly not being in Texas. The right coach can overcome a lot, but Jimbo will prove to be another disappointment, while maybe tantalizing you a time or two.

UT: exploding Nashville will provide more help than many realize, but you are unlikely to recapture your former success. It was primarily regional anyway. Essentially even with Bama regionally, but you usually gagged on the national stage. There Bama out performed you by miles. Nashville's success is also robbing you of some of your energy. Pruitt may do some good, but it will likely be teases. Hard to see you getting past all of your natural shortcomings, as well as, Bama, UF and UGA. You gotta tough row to hoe.