I just ran my silly model, which uses a lot of the same ideas as theirs (production vs opponent average), but I guess they don't use any sort of Yards Per Point measurement or something. Anyway, I came up with this

GEORGIA - 29
SOUTH CAROLINA - 9

Georgia
429 Total Yards (6.85 YPP)
164 Pass Yards (10.8 YPA)
265 Rush Yards (5.6 YPA)

South Carolina
155 Total Yards (2.53 YPP)
108 Pass Yards (3.6 YPA)
47 Rush Yards (1.5 YPA)

South Carolina has run for less YPA than their opponent averages in their last 5 P5 games. They have passed for less YPA in their last 3 P5 games. Combine that with UGA's defense being stingy and it's not a pretty picture.

This post was edited on 11/1/17 at 5:39 pm

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Posted by atlgamecockman

Washington, DC

Member since Dec 2012

3822 posts

Posted on 11/1/17 at 5:37 pm to SummerOfGeorge

29 - 9 seems more likely than 42-10 in my book.

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Posted by meansonny

ATL

Member since Sep 2012

25950 posts

Posted on 11/1/17 at 5:45 pm to SummerOfGeorge

The UGA offensive stats are about what we do against the conference.

I don't know scar enough to know what they average.

We typically put up more points because of favorable field position and pretty dang good coaching (1st and 3rd quarters are dominant point differentials. We haven't had a lot of missed opportunities at those times ).

Pretty cool. Thanks for running it.

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