quote:
I don't understand why conventional wisdom would suggest Trump would do well there. Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, and the GOP establishment are heavily entrenched and motivated in Wisconsin.

The same reason why people are saying that Trump will likely win Indiana in a few weeks: Lots of blue collar workers

Over 16% of all jobs in Wisconsin are manufacturing jobs... that compares to just 8.7% nationally.

States with the highest percentage of manufacturing jobs:
17.12%- Indiana
16.39%- Wisconsin
13.95%- Michigan
13.77%- Iowa
12.99%- Alabama
12.80%- Ohio
12.75%- Arkansas
12.70%- Kentucky

Wisconsin is also far less evangelical compared to most of the states that Cruz has won. While Trump has done better than expected with evangelicals in the South, it is still a demographic that better suits Cruz.

Cruz has thus far done very well in states with high evangelical or Mormon populations.

Combined Evangelical + Mormon make-up of states Cruz has won:
62%- Utah
48%- Oklahoma
40%- Idaho
36%- Wyoming
32%- Texas
32%- Kansas
28%- Iowa
----National Average 27%----
22%- Wisconsin
16%- Maine

Maine was a caucus state in which there were less than 19,000 total people participating... Cruz won that because he has far superior organization compared to the Trump campaign.

But outside of Maine, Wisconsin is the first state that Cruz has won with an Evangelical/Mormon population below the national average.

This is another reason why Cruz' large margin of victory was such a surprise.

Now, with just 4 weeks until the winner-take-all Indiana primary, the conventional wisdom again is that Trump should win the Hoosier state.

While it has a slightly higher percentage of manufacturing jobs compared to Wisconsin, it is also far more Evangelical. A total of 32% of Indiana is comprised of Evangelical Christians or Mormons... far higher than the 22% in Wisconsin.

If Cruz wins Indiana, there is almost no hope for Trump to get to the 1237 delegates he needs before the convention.

This post was edited on 4/6/16 at 12:22 pm