Started By
Message
re: Cruz once again exceeds expectations
Posted on 4/6/16 at 9:17 am to BHMKyle
Posted on 4/6/16 at 9:17 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Trump will do very well in those states. But it was also conventional wisdom a month ago that he would do very well in Wisconsin. That didn't happen.
I don't understand why conventional wisdom would suggest Trump would do well there. Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, and the GOP establishment are heavily entrenched and motivated in Wisconsin. Couple that with local talk radio being at the forefront of the Never Trump movement, and this was a perfect storm of coalescing behind one candidate to beat Trump.
I don't think you'll see another state be as hostile to Trump as Wisconsin was for quite a while.
Still, this probably ensures a brokered convention, and Paul Ryan as the GOPe candidate to get rocked by HillDawg in November. Assuming she isn't in jail.
3
Posted on 4/6/16 at 10:26 am to RoyalAir
quote:
I don't understand why conventional wisdom would suggest Trump would do well there. Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, and the GOP establishment are heavily entrenched and motivated in Wisconsin. Couple that with local talk radio being at the forefront of the Never Trump movement, and this was a perfect storm of coalescing behind one candidate to beat Trump.
I don't think you'll see another state be as hostile to Trump as Wisconsin was for quite a while.
Yep.
quote:
Still, this probably ensures a brokered convention, and Paul Ryan as the GOPe candidate to get rocked by HillDawg in November.
Maybe. The next two weeks will tell the tale. There are 267 delegates up for grabs and all but 19 are in winner-take-all or winner-take-most states. In every one but Delaware (which apparently hasn't been polled), Trump has a lead usually outside the margin of error. If he sweeps those, he will be in a powerful position.
quote:
Still, this probably ensures a brokered convention, and Paul Ryan as the GOPe candidate to get rocked by HillDawg in November.
If Paul Ryan gets nominated having not participated in the primaries, he won't just get rocked. Trump will go independent and Ryan will not carry a single state. I just cannot see anyone in the (R) party being stupid enough to go that route. The nominee will be Trump or Cruz.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 10:27 am to RoyalAir
quote:
I don't understand why conventional wisdom would suggest Trump would do well there. Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, and the GOP establishment are heavily entrenched and motivated in Wisconsin.
The same reason why people are saying that Trump will likely win Indiana in a few weeks: Lots of blue collar workers
Over 16% of all jobs in Wisconsin are manufacturing jobs... that compares to just 8.7% nationally.
States with the highest percentage of manufacturing jobs:
17.12%- Indiana
16.39%- Wisconsin
13.95%- Michigan
13.77%- Iowa
12.99%- Alabama
12.80%- Ohio
12.75%- Arkansas
12.70%- Kentucky
Wisconsin is also far less evangelical compared to most of the states that Cruz has won. While Trump has done better than expected with evangelicals in the South, it is still a demographic that better suits Cruz.
Cruz has thus far done very well in states with high evangelical or Mormon populations.
Combined Evangelical + Mormon make-up of states Cruz has won:
62%- Utah
48%- Oklahoma
40%- Idaho
36%- Wyoming
32%- Texas
32%- Kansas
28%- Iowa
----National Average 27%----
22%- Wisconsin
16%- Maine
Maine was a caucus state in which there were less than 19,000 total people participating... Cruz won that because he has far superior organization compared to the Trump campaign.
But outside of Maine, Wisconsin is the first state that Cruz has won with an Evangelical/Mormon population below the national average.
This is another reason why Cruz' large margin of victory was such a surprise.
Now, with just 4 weeks until the winner-take-all Indiana primary, the conventional wisdom again is that Trump should win the Hoosier state.
While it has a slightly higher percentage of manufacturing jobs compared to Wisconsin, it is also far more Evangelical. A total of 32% of Indiana is comprised of Evangelical Christians or Mormons... far higher than the 22% in Wisconsin.
If Cruz wins Indiana, there is almost no hope for Trump to get to the 1237 delegates he needs before the convention.
This post was edited on 4/6/16 at 12:22 pm
Posted on 4/6/16 at 4:52 pm to RoyalAir
quote:
I don't understand why conventional wisdom would suggest Trump would do well there. Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, and the GOP establishment are heavily entrenched and motivated in Wisconsin. Couple that with local talk radio being at the forefront of the Never Trump movement, and this was a perfect storm of coalescing behind one candidate to beat Trump.
I love how former faces of the Tea Party are now seen as the "establishment". Really makes me sad for the once great Republican Party but it's in fricking shambles and so disorganized. In two or four years there will be another movement or candidate that divides it once again and fricks up any chance this country has of getting a Republican in office, hopefully it doesn't frick up holding Congress before then
Page 1 of 1
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News