re: From here, I see Chubb winning the Hiesman in 2016,

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This. After his performance in the NC Game he will be the early favorite, and it is much easier for a QB to win than a RB.

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I agree, it will be Watson's to lose if he plays like he did this year.

I will say Chubb COULD have a chance if Watson, Fournette and McCaffery start out slow. If Chubb can start his year like he did last year he will have the added bonus of his first game being a big one against UNC. Combined with really good play, I could see them running with a story about how he came back from a devastating injury to win the Heisman.