SB Nation: Vols might actually be underrated

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It's not hard to understand the infatuation.

According to the 247Sports Composite, Tennessee head coach Butch Jones signed the No. 7 class in the country in 2014 and the No. 4 class in 2015. Those include 32 four- or five-star recruits.

According to F/+ ratings, Tennessee's 2014 team was its best since 2007. The bar isn't high -- the Vols had managed only one top-40 finish in that span -- but progress in Jones' second season was undeniable.
TL;DR


Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports

Projected S&P+ ranking: 20

5-year recruiting ranking: 13

Biggest strength: The Vols have one of the most disruptive front-seven trios in the country.

Biggest question mark: The offensive line was a clear liability, and we don't know experience will cure that.

Biggest 2015 game: Take your pick. Oklahoma (Sept. 12) is a huge statement opportunity, Georgia (Oct. 10) could be a massive game in the East race, and the trip to Mizzou (Nov. 21) could have postseason implications.

In one sentence: Tennessee has a tantalizing combination of production and upside, and while the schedule probably features too many obstacles, it's not hard to see the Vols topping seven wins for the first time since 2007.
Combine that with Tennessee's name-brand reputation, which tends to result in a race to proclaim a team "BACK," and a great bowl performance, which tends to result in an artificial bump in the preseason polls, and I assumed the Vols would be ranked far too high to start 2015. Like, top-15 high.

In fact, I wrote about the dreaded bowl bump and its harmful effects after Tennessee's bowl win.

Offseason perceptions matter more than they should. A top-30 performance in 2015, which would be accompanied by about eight wins or so, would represent another step forward for Jones. But if we set the bar higher than that and make improvement seem disappointing, that's unfair.

So consider me pleasantly surprised that the pollsters are tapping the brakes. The Vols ranked 25th in the preseason coaches poll; in the SEC hierarchy, that puts them behind Arkansas and Missouri and ahead of Mississippi State and Texas A&M. And it nearly matches their projected No. 26 ranking in the upcoming Football Outsiders Almanac 2015. It is a fair spot, and Jones' Vols will have a chance to exceed expectations.

Jones has used every recruiting trick in the book to bring talent to Knoxville, and he and his staff have proved capable of putting it in position to succeed. For a young team, the Vols weren't particularly volatile last year, and that could say good things as the quality of the product improves.

We're just waiting to see how quickly the product improves. You won't continue to sign top-five classes without affirming your direction on the field, and the hurdles don't end after a 7-6 season. Jones is eschewing some development and five-year depth (quite a few of last year's signees have already left) in exchange for getting uncut talent onto the field. In theory, that could work, but it could cause problems if growth isn't quick enough to maintain recruiting.

The bar is set in a fair place for 2015. The upside is immense, but the Vols are a couple of injuries away from being too young to rise, and the schedule presents countless opportunities for breakthrough wins and discouraging losses.

It's going to be an interesting season in Knoxville.

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