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re: 2016 Presidential Election

Posted on 4/14/15 at 10:53 am to
Posted by FairhopeTider
Fairhope, Alabama
Member since May 2012
20843 posts
Posted on 4/14/15 at 10:53 am to
Personally, this is going to be a tricky election to call. Whether you support/respect them or not, the GOP is putting out some heavy hitters. Usually, someone like Jeb could just cruise to the nomination by outspending and by being the "established" candidate. However, his name will make him a lightening rod and there is potential for some other candidates, like Christie, to come in a split up the establishment vote. Then you have someone like Cruz who will try to ride the right wing of the party through the primary. Meanwhile, there is a large segment of the Republican party who want something new...and that's where Walker, Rand, and possibly Rubio come in. Whoever survives will either be battle tested or battered to the point where they'll be served to Hillary on a silver platter.

In the end, the GOP needs to nominate somebody that can energize people to vote FOR them, not just vote against Hillary. You never win a National Election by running as the alternative. Hillary is formidable but is vulnerable at the same time. If the GOP trots out someone who isn't ready for the bigtime, she'll destroy them. However, if the GOP nominates someone who has charisma, has a strong campaign machine, and can rally the party behind them, I think they will win.

The General Election is one big marketing campaign. Hillary will have the "first woman president" thing going on for her and she will go into the General with a lead in the polls over most GOP rivals....but don't underestimate the "Rather have a beer with" vote. Its stupid, but that usually dictates who wins most presidential elections. If you win that, it means people understand you, your message, and think you are in touch with reality. Hillary would lose that vote to most of the GOP candidates.
This post was edited on 4/14/15 at 11:00 am
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