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re: 2016 Presidential Election
Posted on 4/13/15 at 4:16 pm to 5thTiger
Posted on 4/13/15 at 4:16 pm to 5thTiger
Hillary will be the dem nominee.
I'm not sure who the republican will be yet as they have a very deep field of talented challengers, none of whom will make it past Super Tuesday (except for maybe Walker). My vote will go to Rand, but the nominee will likely bee Jeb, Rubio, Walker (assuming he doesn't completely f&%k this up or get torn down by a scandal), or some late entrant we don't even know about yet.
I'm not sure who the republican will be yet as they have a very deep field of talented challengers, none of whom will make it past Super Tuesday (except for maybe Walker). My vote will go to Rand, but the nominee will likely bee Jeb, Rubio, Walker (assuming he doesn't completely f&%k this up or get torn down by a scandal), or some late entrant we don't even know about yet.
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Posted on 4/14/15 at 10:53 am to 5thTiger
Personally, this is going to be a tricky election to call. Whether you support/respect them or not, the GOP is putting out some heavy hitters. Usually, someone like Jeb could just cruise to the nomination by outspending and by being the "established" candidate. However, his name will make him a lightening rod and there is potential for some other candidates, like Christie, to come in a split up the establishment vote. Then you have someone like Cruz who will try to ride the right wing of the party through the primary. Meanwhile, there is a large segment of the Republican party who want something new...and that's where Walker, Rand, and possibly Rubio come in. Whoever survives will either be battle tested or battered to the point where they'll be served to Hillary on a silver platter.
In the end, the GOP needs to nominate somebody that can energize people to vote FOR them, not just vote against Hillary. You never win a National Election by running as the alternative. Hillary is formidable but is vulnerable at the same time. If the GOP trots out someone who isn't ready for the bigtime, she'll destroy them. However, if the GOP nominates someone who has charisma, has a strong campaign machine, and can rally the party behind them, I think they will win.
The General Election is one big marketing campaign. Hillary will have the "first woman president" thing going on for her and she will go into the General with a lead in the polls over most GOP rivals....but don't underestimate the "Rather have a beer with" vote. Its stupid, but that usually dictates who wins most presidential elections. If you win that, it means people understand you, your message, and think you are in touch with reality. Hillary would lose that vote to most of the GOP candidates.
In the end, the GOP needs to nominate somebody that can energize people to vote FOR them, not just vote against Hillary. You never win a National Election by running as the alternative. Hillary is formidable but is vulnerable at the same time. If the GOP trots out someone who isn't ready for the bigtime, she'll destroy them. However, if the GOP nominates someone who has charisma, has a strong campaign machine, and can rally the party behind them, I think they will win.
The General Election is one big marketing campaign. Hillary will have the "first woman president" thing going on for her and she will go into the General with a lead in the polls over most GOP rivals....but don't underestimate the "Rather have a beer with" vote. Its stupid, but that usually dictates who wins most presidential elections. If you win that, it means people understand you, your message, and think you are in touch with reality. Hillary would lose that vote to most of the GOP candidates.
This post was edited on 4/14/15 at 11:00 am
Posted on 4/14/15 at 1:28 pm to 5thTiger
Bush isn't electable. He's no different from McCain in '08. If the establishment pushes him, they are essentially throwing in the towel to the Dems. McCain wasn't legitimate opposition to Obama in '08, and Bush won't be opposition to Clinton in '16. And while we're at it, if the presidency is just going to be a token that gets transferred from the House of Bush to the House of Clinton every 10 years or so, can we just go ahead and have a monarchy already?
Cruz is running to stay relevant in the Senate. He doesn't have a legit chance in the General Election because the media will paint him as Anti-Science and people will come out to vote against him.
Christie isn't interesting, and would cause a lot of people to vote third-party. I certainly would.
That leaves Rubio, Paul, and Walker. I'm not a big fan of Walker, cos he comes across as a Koch puppet, but I'd be OK with Rubio.
But my money (in terms of who the strongest candidate is, not who will actually emerge victorious) is Paul. I think he'd eviscerate Hilldawg in a debate, and I think she knows it, too. He has to clean up around the edges a little bit, but he could do well. If he paired with, say, a Tim Scott for his running mate, the GOP would be able to give the Dems a run for their money.
Cruz is running to stay relevant in the Senate. He doesn't have a legit chance in the General Election because the media will paint him as Anti-Science and people will come out to vote against him.
Christie isn't interesting, and would cause a lot of people to vote third-party. I certainly would.
That leaves Rubio, Paul, and Walker. I'm not a big fan of Walker, cos he comes across as a Koch puppet, but I'd be OK with Rubio.
But my money (in terms of who the strongest candidate is, not who will actually emerge victorious) is Paul. I think he'd eviscerate Hilldawg in a debate, and I think she knows it, too. He has to clean up around the edges a little bit, but he could do well. If he paired with, say, a Tim Scott for his running mate, the GOP would be able to give the Dems a run for their money.
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