re: Grantland article (RE: Chavis, LSU, TAMU, and the SEC) SIAP

quote:

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In 2013 A&M was 18 points away from going 11-1 and winning the SEC West. Shave 7 points per game (turn one touchdown drive into a punt) and this would have been the case.

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I don't think you can quantify how a season turns that simply. Yes, technically had you turned one touchdown drive into a punt per game, all else equal you go 11-1. But you don't take into account how the other team adjusts depending on the situation.

You're right that tamu doesn't need elite numbers, but it will be really hard to break the trend with the offense that ya'll run. Again, I think Chavis brings improvement, but the other "spread, hurry up, what have you" offenses referenced in the article really shows how tall of an order it is to have even a good defense with that kind of offense.

Over the last few years, here is the average final "total defense" rank of the schools mentioned in the article:

Oklahoma State: 83, highest rating of 53
Oregon: 59 with a high of 37
Baylor: 79 with a high of 27
Auburn: 78 with a high of 66 last year.

Also, take into account that Sumlin's program has yet to crack the top 100 nationally in time of possession, averaging 114 nationally in his tenure.

Granted, tamu has some good recruiting classes coming in, but that doesn't automatically translate into elite units. Over the same time span, TCU, Boise, Penn State, Wisconsin, UCF, Louisville, and Stanford (not the kind of schools you'd consider recruiting powershouses) all finished in the top 4 nationally in total defense.

The real concern for tamu, moving ahead and trying to improve its running game. Under Sumlin, they went from 11th nationally (with NFL draftee Cyrus Gray toting the rock), to 45, to 84th nationally in rushing offense. Scooping up three star RBs away from ULL likely won't change that trend. (sorry, couldn't resist).