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re: MSU has the biggest chance for an upset this weekend
Posted on 9/17/14 at 10:38 am to Hardy_Har
Posted on 9/17/14 at 10:38 am to Hardy_Har
Thread title is misleading, Hardy. Even though you appear confident that MSU will perform this Saturday in Death Valley, you are selling MSU short(probably out of modesty).
Think about it for a second. 50% = same win chance on a neutral field. I'd say ESPN probably knocked off a third of that for the game being at night, in Death Valley.
33% of 50% = 16.5%, so...
50% - 16.5% = 33.5%
39% - 33.5% = 5.5%
So, an even win % chance at Death Valley would be a 33.5% win chance. Since MSU was given a 39% win chance, we can clearly see that MSU is has a 5.5% better chance to win this game than LSU.
Think about it for a second. 50% = same win chance on a neutral field. I'd say ESPN probably knocked off a third of that for the game being at night, in Death Valley.
33% of 50% = 16.5%, so...
50% - 16.5% = 33.5%
39% - 33.5% = 5.5%
So, an even win % chance at Death Valley would be a 33.5% win chance. Since MSU was given a 39% win chance, we can clearly see that MSU is has a 5.5% better chance to win this game than LSU.
2
Posted on 9/17/14 at 10:42 am to REBEL5 AC
quote:
you are selling MSU short(probably out of modesty).
Mainly this and LSU fans inability to see that we have purposely fricked off for 3 games. Result of this has been plenty non-garbage playing time for our entire roster, lots of Dakota TDs, Preston Smith coming out party, etc..
Our best front four D lineman haven't been on the field for 2 straight series yet. They have no idea what to expect, and Mullen has been watching them struggle with Wisconsin for a few weeks now.
Posted on 9/17/14 at 1:14 pm to REBEL5 AC
quote:
Think about it for a second. 50% = same win chance on a neutral field. I'd say ESPN probably knocked off a third of that for the game being at night, in Death Valley. 33% of 50% = 16.5%, so... 50% - 16.5% = 33.5% 39% - 33.5% = 5.5% So, an even win % chance at Death Valley would be a 33.5% win chance. Since MSU was given a 39% win chance, we can clearly see that MSU is has a 5.5% better chance to win this game than LSU.
Are you stupid? You just wasted probably 10 minutes of everyone's time reading irrelevant statistics based on assumptions that you pulled out of your arse. The fact that you claim to have come to a "clear" conclusion is hilarious. Errrr ESPN likely gave LSU a statistical handicap because Miles's grass eating habits causes him to run the power I against 10 men in the box for 3 quarters which translates to a 37.6467% decreased chance of winning on a grass field.
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