re: Sumlin says he was offered an NFL head coaching gig but turned it down

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If only it were that simple. Most coaches aren't Bill Snyder. As a general rule they want to give the NFL a shot.

Oregon's as good as any west coast job, yet Kelly took the Philly job.

Nick Saban left LSU and it's fertile recruiting base for Miami. If he'd been at Alabama at that point in his career (and having the success he's having now), he would have still taken the Dolphins job.

Pete Carroll won 2 titles in 9 years but left USC for Seattle.

That's three right off the top of my head that were in ultra stable situations where success on a large scale was pretty much assured.

Sumlin my retire at aTm, but don't be a bit surprised if he has to scratch that NFL itch.

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Except two out of the three examples left their college HC jobs to avoid impending NCAA sanctions, so they weren't actually leaving stable situations.
Im not going to argue that Sumlin will never leave A&M because I have no clue. I don't think he will leave due to money, instability, etc. If he goes, it will be solely because he wants to be an NFL HC.
There are many examples of college HCs who had a chance to go to the NFL and never did as well.