re: UCLA wins 2013 CWS (Unsticky Please)

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MISSISSIPPI STATE

Record: 48-18. Preseason ranking: 5. Ranking at end of regular season: 14.

Season In A Nutshell: Mississippi State got off to a 17-0 start against a home-baked nonconference schedule, before losing a home series to Central Arkansas. That started a stretch of four straight series losses for the Bulldogs, who dropped six series overall but salvaged a home regional with a huge series win against South Carolina and a strong 3-1 showing in the SEC tournament. The Bulldogs got their revenge against Central Arkansas in the Starkville Regional, winning two out of three meetings against the Bears, then rode their hot bats and strong bullpen to a two-game sweep of No. 6 national seed Virginia in Charlottesville.

Who’s Hot (NCAA tournament numbers):
• Jr. SS Adam Frazier (.429/.467/.607, 3 2B, 3B, 8 RBI in 28 AB)
• Jr. OF Hunter Renfroe (.423/.444/.577, 2 2B, 3B, 7 RBI in 28 AB)
• Jr. 3B Alex Detz (.429/.571/.476 in 21 AB)
• So. LHP Ross Mitchell (1-0, 0.00 in 9 IP)
• Sr. LHP Chad Girodo (2-0, 2.08, 24-4 K-BB in 13 IP)

Who’s Not (NCAA tournament numbers):
• Sr. C Nick Ammirati (.100/.182/.100 in 20 AB)
• Jr. OF C.T. Bradford (.167/.231/.167 in 24 AB)

GRADING THE BULLDOGS

Hitting
Preseason: 60
Revised: 55

The Bulldogs rank 38th in the nation with a .297 team average, led by the dynamic duo of Frazier and Renfroe, who are both red-hot heading into Omaha. Frazier went 8-for-11 in two games in the Charlottesville Super Regional, and he sets the tone out of the leadoff spot. The bottom half of the lineup is more pitchable, but savvy veterans like Bradford, Demarcus Henderson and Ammirati know how to handle the bat. MSU ranks 60th in the nation in scoring; this is a solid-average to slightly above-average offense.

Power
Preseason: 50
Revised: 50

Mississippi State would have well below-average power if not for two players—Renfroe and Rea. Renfroe’s huge raw power helped make him a first-round pick, and his 15 home runs are more than half the team total (29). The hulking Rea (7 HR) is the only other Bulldog with more than two long balls. But Frazier, Alex Detz and Brett Pirtle use the gaps well.

Speed
Preseason: 65
Revised: 55

Renfroe, Bradford and Henderson have plus speed, and Frazier is a slightly above-average runner with excellent baserunning instincts. So this team has more speed than its stolen base totals suggest, but no Bulldog has double-digit steals, and they rank 197th nationally in stolen bases per game.

Defense
Preseason: 70
Revised: 60

MSU’s fastest players are its three outfielders—Henderson, Bradford and Renfroe cover huge swaths of ground, which will be a major asset in spacious TD Ameritrade Park. Frazier is one of college baseball’s best defensive shortstops, and Pirtle gives him a very steady double-play partner. Ammirati is solid behind the plate, and he handles opposing running games fairly well, throwing out 30 percent of basestealers. Mississippi State has a rather average .972 fielding percentage, but its defense is better than that.

Starting Pitching
Preseason: 55
Revised: 40

Starting pitching has been Mississippi State’s primary weakness all season; only Graveman is a safe bet to last five innings, and MSU needs him to pitch into the sixth or seventh to spare the bullpen some strain. Jacob Lindgren has had a disappointing sophomore year, and the Bulldogs have tried using Luis Pollorena, Trevor Fitts and Ben Bracewell in starting roles down the stretch, with generally lackluster results. Mississippi State’s bullpen is good enough to cover up this deficiency, but the Bulldogs need their starters to avoid putting the team in an early hole, even if they only last three innings.

Bullpen
Preseason: 70
Revised: 70

The deep, talented bullpen was the primary reason MSU ranked fifth in the preseason, and the unit has been the strength of the team all season. So. RHP Jonathan Holder (2-0, 1.31, 83-15 K-BB in 48 IP) has dominated for two years by attacking hitters with a low-90s fastball and a tough downer curve, and he earned second-team All-America honors this spring. Girodo (8-1, 1.38 in 46 IP) and Mitchell (12-0, 1.35 in 87 IP) are the meat and potatoes of the pitching staff, a pair of low-slot lefties who bridge the gap from the early innings until Holder. Girodo does it with more power and Mitchell finesse, but both have been tremendous. And there are also plenty of quality options from the right side if MSU needs to match up.

Experience/Intangibles
Preseason: 70
Revised: 65

Like most of the teams in this CWS field, no MSU player has Omaha experience, but this is a very experienced group loaded with seasoned upperclassmen. The Bulldogs play with an edge that comes from hard-nosed coach John Cohen, and their toughness is one of their biggest strengths.

Baseball America OFP
Preseason: 65
Revised: 60

On paper, Mississippi State looks like an underdog in this field, because its rotation does not match up with the other teams in this bracket, and its offense is solid but not special. But the Bulldogs are playing their best at the right time of year, and they won’t be an easy out in Omaha. Renfroe, Frazier and Holder are true impact stars who could carry this team on their backs, and the complementary pieces are grinders and winners.

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