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What's it take from here to make the tourney?
Posted on 2/8/13 at 4:42 pm
Posted on 2/8/13 at 4:42 pm
Last year 4 teams from the SEC got in. If 4 get in, I think we have a legitimate shot (IF IF IF IF we can win games we're supposed to on the road). But what if only 3 get in? I think UF and Ole Miss are in.
I think Bama is out. They're ahead of us in the conference currently but their overall record is at 14-8 and they still have to play at UF and at Ole Miss. Best they could finish is 21-10 overall and 13-5 in conference.
I think Arky is out. They're also at 14-8 and they struggle to win on the road as well. So even if they kept pace with us, they still finish behind us.
That leaves UK who is 16-6 and 7-2. Mizzou is 16-6 and 5-4. Game at Rupp could determine who goes to the tourney and who goes to the NIT.
Of course, we could just lose every road game and it doesn't matter.
I think Bama is out. They're ahead of us in the conference currently but their overall record is at 14-8 and they still have to play at UF and at Ole Miss. Best they could finish is 21-10 overall and 13-5 in conference.
I think Arky is out. They're also at 14-8 and they struggle to win on the road as well. So even if they kept pace with us, they still finish behind us.
That leaves UK who is 16-6 and 7-2. Mizzou is 16-6 and 5-4. Game at Rupp could determine who goes to the tourney and who goes to the NIT.
Of course, we could just lose every road game and it doesn't matter.
2
Posted on 2/9/13 at 3:06 pm to reedus23
Thats the whole thing. The road games. We have four road games and one home game left and that won't be a gimmee against Florida.
The question is if this team can play with the same intensity on the road it had today. If they can .......
The question is if this team can play with the same intensity on the road it had today. If they can .......
Posted on 2/9/13 at 7:14 pm to reedus23
The only team that's a given is Florida right now.
Ole Miss has lost 3 out of 4 (albeit to 3 very good teams), so I wouldn't ink it that they are NCAA Tourney bound yet.
The only way Bama gets in is if they finish 13-5 in conference (which they have a good shot at doing IMO) AND they win at least one, maybe two SEC tourney games.
I agree with Arky being out. Only way they make it is if they go at least 6-2 the rest of the way AND win one, maybe two SEC tourney games (similar situation to Bama.
UK should be in as long as they finish at least 5-3 and win at least 1 SEC tourney game. If they are 21-11, even 20-12, they will probably get in because their name is Kentucky.
As far as we go, 5 out of 8 remaining games are on the road. We MUST win at least 2 of those road games (AND all home games) preferably and one SEC tourney game. The UF game is huge b/c a win their carries more weight than a loss @LSU IMO. Here's how I see it going from here on out:
W @Mississippi St.
W @Arkansas
W Florida
L @Kentucky
W @South Carolina
W LSU
W Arkansas
W @Tennessee
I think we turned a corner today and will carry that grittiness with us on the road (for the 1st time all year) and for the rest of the year.
Ole Miss has lost 3 out of 4 (albeit to 3 very good teams), so I wouldn't ink it that they are NCAA Tourney bound yet.
The only way Bama gets in is if they finish 13-5 in conference (which they have a good shot at doing IMO) AND they win at least one, maybe two SEC tourney games.
I agree with Arky being out. Only way they make it is if they go at least 6-2 the rest of the way AND win one, maybe two SEC tourney games (similar situation to Bama.
UK should be in as long as they finish at least 5-3 and win at least 1 SEC tourney game. If they are 21-11, even 20-12, they will probably get in because their name is Kentucky.
As far as we go, 5 out of 8 remaining games are on the road. We MUST win at least 2 of those road games (AND all home games) preferably and one SEC tourney game. The UF game is huge b/c a win their carries more weight than a loss @LSU IMO. Here's how I see it going from here on out:
W @Mississippi St.
W @Arkansas
W Florida
L @Kentucky
W @South Carolina
W LSU
W Arkansas
W @Tennessee
I think we turned a corner today and will carry that grittiness with us on the road (for the 1st time all year) and for the rest of the year.
Posted on 2/9/13 at 8:44 pm to TigerTap5
quote:
I think we turned a corner today and will carry that grittiness with us on the road (for the 1st time all year) and for the rest of the year.
I've thought that before with this team. I loved seeing how they had one another's back today though. They still have to show me they can do it on the road. I hope like hell we beat UF at home but that's a tall task.
As for Bama, the only way they get in is if 5 teams from the SEC gets in. I don't see that happening. They would have to jump Mizzou, UK, UF and Ole Miss. Not going to happen.
Posted on 2/9/13 at 10:12 pm to reedus23
2 road wins and we are a lock, IMO.
Posted on 2/10/13 at 12:17 am to notsince98
quote:
2 road wins and we are a lock, IMO.
I'm assuming that's with winning all home games, including Florida. That would do it. Beating Florida, even at home, will be tough.
Posted on 2/10/13 at 4:08 pm to reedus23
11-7 in conference and at least to the SEC Championship game
Posted on 2/10/13 at 4:55 pm to reedus23
Your conference doesn't have anything to do with a tourney bid. It is not like there is some cap on how many teams from a league get in, they look at your entire resume. They also take into account injuries like the few games Bowers missed. The bubble is fairly soft this year so teams like bama and ARK still have a shot if they get hot. But Mizzou has a great shot at the tourney
Posted on 2/10/13 at 7:12 pm to TigerinUGA
quote:
The bubble is fairly soft this year so teams like bama and ARK still have a shot if they get hot. But Mizzou has a great shot at the tourney
The thing that worries me about the conference is if it comes down to a bubble team from the Big East/ACC/Big 10 or the SEC, well it won't be the SEC. I think the perception is that if a team is any good in the SEC, they're record will be that much better so 2 teams with the same record will see the other team get in.
Posted on 2/10/13 at 9:26 pm to TigerTap5
Wow I missed that one. Would help if I switched the page and found the last three games in March! Derrrr. 
Feel'n like a complete tard now.
I think we make the tourny this year. This team is not that bad. But it's going to require some road wins. It's getting down to crunch time. They have to get some road wins.
@Miss. St. should be first road win.
@Arky will be a challenge. Tough at home.Maybe we carry momentum from previous win. Win
Florida will not be easy and could be the first home loss this year. Loss
@Kentucky I'm still up in the air on. If we had them earlier this season, our chances were better. But they have come on as of late. Won't be easy. loss
@South Carolina, won't be easy either. Frank Martin teams are tough. But it's a road game we can win. Win
LSU at home should be a win. I'm thinking kind of along the lines of the Ol Miss game they just played. win
Arky at home should also be a win. Win
@Tennessee, I have no idea. I think maybe a win.???
We have to win both Arky games, cause if we don't you know whats going to happen around here. Every Arkytards gonna come out of the woodwork. Two must wins.....
Feel'n like a complete tard now. I think we make the tourny this year. This team is not that bad. But it's going to require some road wins. It's getting down to crunch time. They have to get some road wins.
@Miss. St. should be first road win.
@Arky will be a challenge. Tough at home.Maybe we carry momentum from previous win. Win
Florida will not be easy and could be the first home loss this year. Loss
@Kentucky I'm still up in the air on. If we had them earlier this season, our chances were better. But they have come on as of late. Won't be easy. loss
@South Carolina, won't be easy either. Frank Martin teams are tough. But it's a road game we can win. Win
LSU at home should be a win. I'm thinking kind of along the lines of the Ol Miss game they just played. win
Arky at home should also be a win. Win
@Tennessee, I have no idea. I think maybe a win.???
We have to win both Arky games, cause if we don't you know whats going to happen around here. Every Arkytards gonna come out of the woodwork. Two must wins.....
This post was edited on 2/10/13 at 9:29 pm
Posted on 2/10/13 at 9:56 pm to jafo
I think this team has as much talent as just about anyone in the country much less the conference. It's a question on whether or not they capitalize on that potential. Bottom line is they learn how to carry they way they played yesterday over to the road and we make the tourney or they don't figure it out and miss out on the tourney. Even if they figure it out, @Arky and @UT will be tough to win.
Posted on 2/11/13 at 4:51 pm to reedus23
Starting to be a process of elimination now. I think Arky's loss to Vandy took away any shot they had. At 14-9 (5-5) they have:
Win @Aub(Generous because sucks on the road too)
Win MU(Generous. If we break the snide with MSU we win here)
Win UGA
Loss @UF
Win @LSU
Loss UK
Loss @MU
Win A&M
Being generous, they finish 19-12. I don't even think 2 tourney wins gets them in despite the fact they don't have any bad OOC losses.
Win @Aub(Generous because sucks on the road too)
Win MU(Generous. If we break the snide with MSU we win here)
Win UGA
Loss @UF
Win @LSU
Loss UK
Loss @MU
Win A&M
Being generous, they finish 19-12. I don't even think 2 tourney wins gets them in despite the fact they don't have any bad OOC losses.
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