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Recruiting thoughts and future powers in the SEC.......
Posted on 11/14/12 at 8:21 am
Posted on 11/14/12 at 8:21 am
This is obviously not a post to predict a power for 20+ years, just who I think based on recruiting prospects who can be successful over the next 10 or so years.
I think the new SEC will be dominated by 6 teams. Three in each division.
Let's start in the EAST:
UF----Talent base keeps them in top 2.
UGA----Talent base keeps them in top 2.
UK-----lol
Vandy--Good recruiting now, but no way will they consistently be top
Mizzou--Sorry zou fans, but not enough talent up yalls way.
USCe----This is where it gets tricky. They have some talent in state, but they have to share with Clemson. Also, how good will they be after spurrier inevitably retires in the next 3 years?
UTK-----Another tricky one. It depends on who they hire for their coach. They've already proven they can recruit nationally. If they get a coach who can lock down Memphis, dig into ATL, and then recruit NC, SC, FL, and nationally, then they can easily put together championship classes.
For the east it's UF, UGA, and whoever wins the recruiting battle between USCe/UTK.
Now to the West:
Bama----Even after Saban goes, they will still bring in top talent.
Auburn---I think they only go up in the top 3 if either LSU or Bama drops down.
Arky----Can compete every now adn then, but won't be consistent with their lack of talent base.
Ole Miss--Same as Arky, but to a lesser extent.
MSU-------Same as Arky. Plus, they better pray Mullen doesn't find a better gig.
LSU------As long as their HC keeps the LA talent in LA for the most part, then they will remain in the top 3 in the west. RIght now, Les is doing a great job recruiting nationally.
A&M------Here is the interesting one. TX recruiting should keep them in the top 3 IMO. But if they don't develop a defense, Auburn could easily displace them after Manziel moves on. OR they could be in the same spot as UF 1990. A juggernaut that wakes up with a great recruiting base and is here to stay. It all really depends on if Sumlin is closer to Leach or closer to Spurrier in coaching ability.
So, for the west I've got Bama, LSU, and either aTm or Auburn depending on how things shake out. But my $ will be on aTm to be that 3rd team in the west.
I think the new SEC will be dominated by 6 teams. Three in each division.
Let's start in the EAST:
UF----Talent base keeps them in top 2.
UGA----Talent base keeps them in top 2.
UK-----lol
Vandy--Good recruiting now, but no way will they consistently be top
Mizzou--Sorry zou fans, but not enough talent up yalls way.
USCe----This is where it gets tricky. They have some talent in state, but they have to share with Clemson. Also, how good will they be after spurrier inevitably retires in the next 3 years?
UTK-----Another tricky one. It depends on who they hire for their coach. They've already proven they can recruit nationally. If they get a coach who can lock down Memphis, dig into ATL, and then recruit NC, SC, FL, and nationally, then they can easily put together championship classes.
For the east it's UF, UGA, and whoever wins the recruiting battle between USCe/UTK.
Now to the West:
Bama----Even after Saban goes, they will still bring in top talent.
Auburn---I think they only go up in the top 3 if either LSU or Bama drops down.
Arky----Can compete every now adn then, but won't be consistent with their lack of talent base.
Ole Miss--Same as Arky, but to a lesser extent.
MSU-------Same as Arky. Plus, they better pray Mullen doesn't find a better gig.
LSU------As long as their HC keeps the LA talent in LA for the most part, then they will remain in the top 3 in the west. RIght now, Les is doing a great job recruiting nationally.
A&M------Here is the interesting one. TX recruiting should keep them in the top 3 IMO. But if they don't develop a defense, Auburn could easily displace them after Manziel moves on. OR they could be in the same spot as UF 1990. A juggernaut that wakes up with a great recruiting base and is here to stay. It all really depends on if Sumlin is closer to Leach or closer to Spurrier in coaching ability.
So, for the west I've got Bama, LSU, and either aTm or Auburn depending on how things shake out. But my $ will be on aTm to be that 3rd team in the west.
This post was edited on 11/14/12 at 8:22 am
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Posted on 11/14/12 at 8:24 am to Moustache
LSU will also continue to get Houston talent, even more with A&M in the league. Bama will bama, arky will arky. The west is on a be hard as hell.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 8:28 am to KaiserSoze99
quote:
The west is on a be hard as hell.
I agree it will be hard because you will have LSU, Bama, and aTm, but Auburn will be fighting their arse off to displace one of those 3.
I just don't see where Arky will get the talent. Look at this year. Is the west really that tough outside of the top 3.
I don't see it any tougher than the East with UF, UGA, and USCe. Plus, if UT makes a homerun hire people tend to forget how good they can recruit.
Hell, they have a fricking imbecile and are having the worst period of football in UT history and are still ranking between 12-25 in recruiting year to year under dooley. Imagine if they win. Not much makes them different from Bama's recruiting base if the new coach can lock down Memphis. Plus, Tennessee will have the undisputed best facilities in the nation.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 8:28 am to Moustache
i really think the SEC is a "top 8" league now. yes, one of the top 8 can be down temporarily but not long run. you can book it that UT will be back and so will Auburn.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 8:30 am to Moustache
quote:
Moustache
Nice thread! Unfortunately, I agree with your prognosis about Arkansas. For us to do well, we have to recruit well outside of our backyard. An off year here or there, and we will suffer.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 8:31 am to Moustache
I should add Tenn gonn Tenn. any program with a 100,000 cap stadium will not be down for long.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 8:32 am to LSU GrandDad
quote:
i really think the SEC is a "top 8" league now
Ehhhhhh, I don't know.
I guess let me define what I mean by top 3 teams.
Team 1---12-0 or 11-1
team 2----11-1 or 10-2
team 3----10-2 or 9-3
team 4----9-3 with H2H loss against team 3 or 8-4
I don't think you can have 4 teams in each division be 9-3 or 10-2. It just won't happen, not enough good players to go around.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 8:35 am to Moustache
Texas is a huge state with lots of schools. Texas and Oklahoma gets the 1st pick.
A&M, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Okie State, etc battles for the rest.
A&M, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Okie State, etc battles for the rest.
This post was edited on 11/14/12 at 8:36 am
Posted on 11/14/12 at 8:35 am to KaiserSoze99
I think you're onto something with the thought that Auburn and A&M are interchangeable in that Top 3 w/Bama and LSU.
It all depends on coaching. Sumlin has this year and next year to really improve his defense and bring in some other talent at receiver. I think its also key he fills the pipeline with OL talent because if he can't protect Manziel the whole shebang just doesn't work.
If he can continue the success of year 1 while Manziel's there, he's going to get a bounce in year 4 or 5 (whenever Manziel leaves) because that offense will be mature from a playcall standpoint but different from a talent standpoint. Whomever comes in behind Manziel will run the QB position completely different, IMO simply because its hard to catch lightning in a bottle twice. They'll give some different looks and it will be fresh and difficult to plan for which is something that's a bit of a rarity in the upper echelon of CFB: a mature system w/almost completely new wrinkles.
Auburn on the other hand? Those cats have the talent. They recruited well. Outside of Van Gorder, I just think they have an infrastructure that's crap. Their coaching staff is garbajjjjje. If they bring in a top flight coach they can succeed.
IMO-Petrino's the last guy I want. That program's had enough lack of discipline to last a lifetime. No, I'd go after them in this order:
1.) James Franklin
2.) Jimbo*
3.) Holgo*
4.) Patterson
5.) Dykes*
Jimbo, Holgo & Dykes would need the AU Brass' signoff on their DC's. They haven't proven to field championship caliber defenses where they've been. But they can put points up early and consistently. They can recruit the QB position and coach & develop it, which has proven to be the single most important factor for success in this confernece-outside of the Defensive Coordinator hire.
It all depends on coaching. Sumlin has this year and next year to really improve his defense and bring in some other talent at receiver. I think its also key he fills the pipeline with OL talent because if he can't protect Manziel the whole shebang just doesn't work.
If he can continue the success of year 1 while Manziel's there, he's going to get a bounce in year 4 or 5 (whenever Manziel leaves) because that offense will be mature from a playcall standpoint but different from a talent standpoint. Whomever comes in behind Manziel will run the QB position completely different, IMO simply because its hard to catch lightning in a bottle twice. They'll give some different looks and it will be fresh and difficult to plan for which is something that's a bit of a rarity in the upper echelon of CFB: a mature system w/almost completely new wrinkles.
Auburn on the other hand? Those cats have the talent. They recruited well. Outside of Van Gorder, I just think they have an infrastructure that's crap. Their coaching staff is garbajjjjje. If they bring in a top flight coach they can succeed.
IMO-Petrino's the last guy I want. That program's had enough lack of discipline to last a lifetime. No, I'd go after them in this order:
1.) James Franklin
2.) Jimbo*
3.) Holgo*
4.) Patterson
5.) Dykes*
Jimbo, Holgo & Dykes would need the AU Brass' signoff on their DC's. They haven't proven to field championship caliber defenses where they've been. But they can put points up early and consistently. They can recruit the QB position and coach & develop it, which has proven to be the single most important factor for success in this confernece-outside of the Defensive Coordinator hire.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 8:36 am to blacknblu
quote:
I agree with your prognosis about Arkansas. For us to do well, we have to recruit well outside of our backyard. An off year here or there, and we will suffer.
Don't take my prognosis to mean Arky won't ahve the occasional 10-2 season or better with the right coach, but they will be up and down because the talent just isn't going to be there for you guys to handle injury/attrition. Take LSU this year for instance. Since August we have lost Tahj Jones, Chris Faulk, Alfred Blue, Tyrann Mathieu, Kwon Alexander, Alex Hurst, and Josh Williford due to injury. All of those guys were starters. Yet, LSU still had the depth to sustain and a have a good, not great season. I don't think a program like Arky can handle that type of adversity. Thus my reason for not putting them top 3.
I still do like Arky as a program and their facilities. Just not the talent base to keep as consistent.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 8:36 am to KaiserSoze99
quote:
I should add Tenn gonn Tenn. any program with a 100,000 cap stadium will not be down for long.
If they get a coach who can recruit like a beast, they will be right back up top.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 8:38 am to Crompdaddy8
quote:
exas and Oklahoma gets the 1st pick.
Used to be true, but the game has changed.
Check out where OU's class is this year and last year in relation to A&M. Times, they are a changing!
quote:
TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Okie State, etc battles for the rest.
will all have to get in line behind A&M now. That is truth.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 8:38 am to Moustache
Georgia has consistently recruited well under Richt, but if/when we do make a coaching change I'm afraid we'll suffer for about 2 years. I think we'll experience the typical growing pains after Richt is fired, as well as in year 1 under new guy. So depending on when that happens we may slip for a minute, but ultimately yeah there's no way we're not a top 3 recruiting school in the East.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 8:42 am to GFunk
quote:
I think you're onto something with the thought that Auburn and A&M are interchangeable in that Top 3 w/Bama and LSU.
Well, kind of. If LSU or bama goes down due to poor coaching or sanctions or whatever, then Auburn takes their place.
My point, is that Auburn can recruit, but not as consistently as LSU, Bama, and A&M can.
For Auburn to be in the top 3, one of those 3 teams has to have something wrong with them causing them not to operate at peak consistency.
Auburn has been wildly inconsistent the past few years. Even under Tubs. Auburn 06-08 was wildly inconsistent.
Franklin should be the guy Auburn should want. Petrino pays no attention to D and is a dangerous hire, Patterson is not as good as everyone thinks, Dykes=Tony Franklin.
Holgorsen MAYBE, but I wouldn't want him.
Jimbo wouldn't be a bad hire at all, especially if he can keep some FL pipelines open to Auburn.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 8:44 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
orgia has consistently recruited well under Richt, but if/when we do make a coaching change I'm afraid we'll suffer for about 2 years.
It depends on if UGA goes safe and promotes from within the staff or if UGA gets the top coach available.
If they play it safe and give no spark to the program, then Auburn/Tenn will gladly take your recruits.
I think Richt has recruited well and is the sole reason for Tenn going down under fulmer because Fulmer got locked out of ATL essentially. However, I also feel Richt lets too many top GA players slip away like Nkemdiche and Foster taht maybe a new coach can turnaround.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 8:44 am to LSU GrandDad
quote:
i really think the SEC is a "top 8" league now.
naaaaahhhhh.
Big 6 forever.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 8:45 am to Moustache
TAMU will be a national player for some time going forward.... they will begin to dominate Texas HS recruiting....
Posted on 11/14/12 at 8:46 am to Crompdaddy8
quote:
Texas is a huge state with lots of schools. Texas and Oklahoma gets the 1st pick. A&M, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Okie State, etc battles for the rest.
LOL you have no clue what you speak of
Posted on 11/14/12 at 8:46 am to Moustache
quote:
Moustache
quote:
Jimbo wouldn't be a bad hire at all, especially if he can keep some FL pipelines open to Auburn.
Jimbo has groomed "Trooper v 2.0" with your boy Dameyune Craig. I'm not sure how they'll recruit FL, but Jimbo can recruit QB's anywhere in the Southeast, and he can coach 'em up.
Again, those other coaches need to have AD signoff on the DC because of your mentioning they ignore the D completely or haven't proven capable of hiring anyone worth a sh!t.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 8:49 am to allin2010
quote:
they will begin to dominate Texas HS recruiting....
They will do well, but the thing that aTm will need to push them over the top will be getting a few athletes from LA as well.
some kids in TX grow up UT fans and some aTm. I don't think you will dominate. It's not like UT is going anywhere and OU will get theirs too. But, TX is like FL in the fact that it can support a shitload of elite teams.
UF was at the top of the league in the 90s and they didn't "dominate" FL recruiting. This idea that you guys will get the top Tx recruits and historical powers like UT and OU will just get the scraps is misguided.
That's not me saying A&M won't be elite. That's me being realistic.
TAMU will be a national player as long as Sumlin proves to be the right guy and isn't a copy of other coaches who have a great year and then fade away. He needs to get better athletes on Defense to stay on top. LSU and Bama will stay national players as well. TAMU won't just be the lone elite team in the west. And they certainly won't be the lone elite team out of Texas/OU.
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