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Why Alabama gives us our worst loss of the season
Posted on 11/4/12 at 7:15 am
Posted on 11/4/12 at 7:15 am
A&M averages 44.67 and allows 21.00
Alabama averages 38.44 and allows 9.11
Metric 1 is performance vs. all schools
Metric 2 is performance vs. schools .500 or better
Metric 3 is performance vs. ranked opponents
All use scores vs. opponents averages, then factor them against current teams' averages.
Using A&M's averages:
Metric 1: Alabama 30, A&M 29
Metric 2: Alabama 33, A&M 20
Metric 3: Alabama 32, A&M 22
Using Alabama's averages:
Metric 1: Alabama 35, A&M 26
Metric 2: Alabama 34, A&M 25
Metric 3: Alabama 33, A&M 27
Factoring in a +/- 5 for home/away (I'll go easy on Bertolet for now):
Alabama scores between 35-40
A&M scores between 15-24
Either way, it will be our worst loss of the season.
Alabama averages 38.44 and allows 9.11
Metric 1 is performance vs. all schools
Metric 2 is performance vs. schools .500 or better
Metric 3 is performance vs. ranked opponents
All use scores vs. opponents averages, then factor them against current teams' averages.
Using A&M's averages:
Metric 1: Alabama 30, A&M 29
Metric 2: Alabama 33, A&M 20
Metric 3: Alabama 32, A&M 22
Using Alabama's averages:
Metric 1: Alabama 35, A&M 26
Metric 2: Alabama 34, A&M 25
Metric 3: Alabama 33, A&M 27
Factoring in a +/- 5 for home/away (I'll go easy on Bertolet for now):
Alabama scores between 35-40
A&M scores between 15-24
Either way, it will be our worst loss of the season.
This post was edited on 11/4/12 at 7:16 am
4
Posted on 11/4/12 at 7:44 am to CGSC Lobotomy
I love stats but...
Ags have an offense that is still developing and growing. Still adding plays, Manziel is still learning, learning how to check out of plays and what to check into or NOT to check into.
The improvements in the last few games by the offense is substantial.
The problem with a purley statistical analysis is that things have changed so much during the season. Personally, I think if A&M played Florida today we win by 10 or more points. Play Ole Miss today and we win by 20. More points scored, less point given up.
New offense, new QB, etc.. etc.. things are moving quickly.
How many points you giving this weekend?
GIGEM
Ags have an offense that is still developing and growing. Still adding plays, Manziel is still learning, learning how to check out of plays and what to check into or NOT to check into.
The improvements in the last few games by the offense is substantial.
The problem with a purley statistical analysis is that things have changed so much during the season. Personally, I think if A&M played Florida today we win by 10 or more points. Play Ole Miss today and we win by 20. More points scored, less point given up.
New offense, new QB, etc.. etc.. things are moving quickly.
How many points you giving this weekend?
GIGEM
This post was edited on 11/4/12 at 7:47 am
Posted on 11/4/12 at 10:23 am to Tridentds
I think we score more points against Alabama (24) than anyone else this season. I also think they score 38.
Posted on 11/4/12 at 10:49 am to CGSC Lobotomy
The only way I think we break 30 against Bama is through multiple turnovers. Bama takes care of the ball like nobody's business, but as we saw the other night, even they aren't immune to the occasional freak fumble. Gotta be ready to capitalize on any mistake they make just to keep things close.
Posted on 11/4/12 at 10:57 am to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
Why Alabama gives us our worst loss of the season
Our biggest loss of the year is 5 points. It wouldn't be too difficult to make that prediction even without all the statistical breakdowns
Posted on 11/5/12 at 10:11 am to CGSC Lobotomy
never tell me the odds!
This post was edited on 11/5/12 at 10:12 am
Posted on 11/5/12 at 10:16 am to Old Sarge
Posted on 11/11/12 at 12:35 pm to Old Sarge
What was this thread about?
Posted on 11/11/12 at 12:39 pm to Old Sarge
What was this thread about?
Posted on 11/11/12 at 2:22 pm to Old Sarge
Hey, I have absolutely no problem being wrong here. All stats and analysis pointed to a double-digit Alabama win. Apparently, I have to add a +20 JFF factor as well.
Posted on 11/11/12 at 2:42 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Posted on 11/11/12 at 3:53 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Posted on 11/11/12 at 7:27 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
"The improvements in the last few games by the offense is substantial.
The problem with a purley statistical analysis is that things have changed so much during the season. Personally, I think if A&M played Florida today we win by 10 or more points. Play Ole Miss today and we win by 20. More points scored, less point given up.
New offense, new QB, etc.. etc.. things are moving quickly. "
GIGEM AGS!
The problem with a purley statistical analysis is that things have changed so much during the season. Personally, I think if A&M played Florida today we win by 10 or more points. Play Ole Miss today and we win by 20. More points scored, less point given up.
New offense, new QB, etc.. etc.. things are moving quickly. "
GIGEM AGS!
Posted on 11/11/12 at 8:10 pm to TbirdSpur2010
quote:
The only way I think we break 30 against Bama is through multiple turnovers. Bama takes care of the ball like nobody's business, but as we saw the other night, even they aren't immune to the occasional freak fumble. Gotta be ready to capitalize on any mistake they make just to keep things close.
This bright young man brought up some good points
Posted on 11/11/12 at 8:34 pm to TbirdSpur2010
We still didn't break 30.
Posted on 11/11/12 at 9:15 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
We still didn't break 30
Missed extra point (again).. there's 1.
Missed chip shot FG (again).. there's another 3
Did not convert 2pt to make up for earlier missed extra point ... there's at least 1.
Honestly Ags left 4 or 5 point on the field because of our horrendous kicking game. Should have easily been 33 total points.
Posted on 11/13/12 at 7:50 am to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
We still didn't break 30.
And we all know whom to thank for that
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