re: Kirk Herbstreit: Texas A&M is a bigger threat to beat Alabama than LSU is

quote:

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aTm offense = Oregon offense minus the speed. Not to mention Johnny frickin' a Football ain't never seen a pass rush like he will that day.

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You can argue that Oregon's offense is better than A&M but it isn't because of speed. They have been doing it longer in the same system. Remember that JFF was an Oregon commit that A&M pulled away and actually A&M and Oregon go toe to toe in recruiting fairly often as Oregon loves the Spread offense talent in Texas. Oregon has a better defense than A&M though.

I also would argue JFF has seen some pretty damn good pass rushers at least try to get him, Montgomery and Mingo are pretty good. He just has the security blanket of 2 All American level OT's to help with that.

As to the OP, I think it is an interesting point. Football games often aren't determined by who is the most talented but by who is the better matchup. LSU and Bama are clones of one another except Bama clearly has a better offense. That's why they are 10 point dogs. They absolutely could win but they really don't match up well with Bama.

A&M may end up as a bigger dog to Bama and clearly don't have as good of a defense as LSU but their offense could cause Bama problems. A&M's O has home run threats all over it and may be able to find some cracks in the Bama D. The defense isn't deep but may be able to hold. Perhaps Bama has some unexpected turnovers. It's also a huge advantage to catch Bama AFTER LSU, it's going to be a challenge even for the mighty Saban to get his team super jacked up 2 weeks in a row.

I think Bama has about a 75% chance of winning both games. They are the best team on paper by a good margin. I also see the point though of basically picking A&M because at least they have more of an X factor. This is especially true because of how badly Bama beat LSU in the MNC game and the perception being that LSU isn't as strong as they were then while Bama may actually be better. I certainly could see LSU winning at night in Tiger Stadium but in a strange way I could see that working to Bama's advantage as well. There is no sneaking up on Bama for LSU but A&M may have at least some chance at surprise. Still can't really see either team being strong enough to close the deal though, Bama is just too good this year.

I also think that any close calls will go Bama's way because now Bama needs to go undefeated to make sure the SEC can keep the streak alive and we aren't watching an Oregon vs ND/K State MNC game while the SEC has a group of 1 loss teams.