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This week is the classic trap game
Posted on 10/21/12 at 8:36 am
Posted on 10/21/12 at 8:36 am
At this point last season, we were 5-2 after falling apart in the second half of each of our two losses and about to play a game against a far lesser opponent before a rough 2 game road stretch against Oklahoma and Kansas State back to back.
We all know what happened in the Missouri game.
This point in the season, we are 5-2 after falling short in the second half of each of our losses and are about to play a game against a far lesser opponent before a rough 2 game road stretch against Mississippi State and Alabama back to back.
Hopefully Auburn won't be Missouri 2011 all over again.
So far, my predictor has been far more accurate in predicting our opponents' score than our own.
We average 43 points per game on offense and allow 22.14 points per game on defense.
We score, on average, 16.98 points per game more than our opponents allow and allow 9.73 points per game less than our opponents score. Using that metric, we score 42 and Auburn scores 6.
Auburn averages 15.71 points per game on offense and allows 25.14 points per game on defense.
On average, they score 7.27 points per game less than their opponents allow and allow 7.39 points per game less than their opponents score. Using that metric, Auburn scores 15 and we score 36.
Factoring a +/- factor of 5 for home vs. road:
A&M scores between 31-37
Auburn scores between 11-20
Not the dominating victory that everyone on the rant is predicting, but a 2-3 score win.
Using our stats and the home/road factor for the rest of the games. Add another +/- 5 vs. FCS schools: (Consider any margin 7 or less a tossup and anything more than 14 a blowout, ignore the score)
Mississippi State 33, A&M 26
Alabama 36, A&M 20
A&M 52, Sam Houston 21
A&M 48, Missouri 6
We all know what happened in the Missouri game.
This point in the season, we are 5-2 after falling short in the second half of each of our losses and are about to play a game against a far lesser opponent before a rough 2 game road stretch against Mississippi State and Alabama back to back.
Hopefully Auburn won't be Missouri 2011 all over again.
So far, my predictor has been far more accurate in predicting our opponents' score than our own.
We average 43 points per game on offense and allow 22.14 points per game on defense.
We score, on average, 16.98 points per game more than our opponents allow and allow 9.73 points per game less than our opponents score. Using that metric, we score 42 and Auburn scores 6.
Auburn averages 15.71 points per game on offense and allows 25.14 points per game on defense.
On average, they score 7.27 points per game less than their opponents allow and allow 7.39 points per game less than their opponents score. Using that metric, Auburn scores 15 and we score 36.
Factoring a +/- factor of 5 for home vs. road:
A&M scores between 31-37
Auburn scores between 11-20
Not the dominating victory that everyone on the rant is predicting, but a 2-3 score win.
Using our stats and the home/road factor for the rest of the games. Add another +/- 5 vs. FCS schools: (Consider any margin 7 or less a tossup and anything more than 14 a blowout, ignore the score)
Mississippi State 33, A&M 26
Alabama 36, A&M 20
A&M 52, Sam Houston 21
A&M 48, Missouri 6
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Posted on 10/21/12 at 10:50 am to CGSC Lobotomy
If Sherman was still our coach, then yes I would be a little concerned about this weekends game. But I'm honestly not that worried about it now that we have Sumlin. He seems to have a very good ability to motivate the players and we all know he won't accept any half-arse efforts from anyone. I think we will win comfortably 
Posted on 10/21/12 at 11:38 pm to Houston Summit
This Auburn team is horrendous. The offense has no identity and the defense couldn't tackle a tree in an open field, I'm not sure if they've actually taught these players any football fundamentals whatsoever. The crowd should be dead and if there's just a shite ton of turmoil going on right now at the Barn. I'd be really surprised if they kept it close against the Aggies.
The line just needs to keep their pass rush in check, which is still effective at times simply due to the athletes they have playing on the DLine. If JFF can minimize the turnovers and the DB's take advantage of some of the worst QB's I've seen the Barners put out there, they won't stand a chance.
And there's a strong possibility Chizik may not even be there by the end of the week...
The line just needs to keep their pass rush in check, which is still effective at times simply due to the athletes they have playing on the DLine. If JFF can minimize the turnovers and the DB's take advantage of some of the worst QB's I've seen the Barners put out there, they won't stand a chance.
And there's a strong possibility Chizik may not even be there by the end of the week...
This post was edited on 10/21/12 at 11:40 pm
Posted on 10/22/12 at 1:22 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Posted on 10/22/12 at 3:33 pm to Dr RC
I'd be surprised if their stadium was 2/3rds full at kick off.
Posted on 10/23/12 at 9:50 am to NonregAg09
Kick off is at 6 pm right?
Posted on 10/23/12 at 11:19 am to CGSC Lobotomy
A&M needs to show up and be ready to play. If we do that we win handily. Auburn's offense is terrible and their defense is average. Our passing attack should light them up badly and if we get up by a couple scores they really have no ability to keep up.
Now if we decide to give them 5 or 6 turnovers and have lots of stupid penalties anything can happen. Outside of that though this is a deflated Auburn team that has already had their "let's try and salvage the season!" effort against LSU. Can't take them lightly but we have no excuse for losing this game or it even being close.
Now if we decide to give them 5 or 6 turnovers and have lots of stupid penalties anything can happen. Outside of that though this is a deflated Auburn team that has already had their "let's try and salvage the season!" effort against LSU. Can't take them lightly but we have no excuse for losing this game or it even being close.
Posted on 10/23/12 at 11:56 am to HBCanine08
quote:
Kick off is at 6 pm right?
yes
Posted on 10/23/12 at 12:15 pm to aggressor
I think we'll be ready. We've already had our scares against Ole Miss and La Tech, and I think Sumlin will use that as proof that there aren't any easy wins in the SEC, especially on the road. I expect us to play well and win easily
Posted on 10/28/12 at 8:22 am to Houston Summit
Once again, I got the opponents' score within single digits.
Posted on 10/28/12 at 12:38 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Don't hurt your arm too much there ... 
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