Started By
Message
locked post

Fun with scoring stats (A&M at Ole Miss)

Posted on 9/30/12 at 1:26 pm
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
81611 posts
Posted on 9/30/12 at 1:26 pm
Last week, I used these to predict the score within 6 points each way so I'll try again.

Texas A&M averages 48.25 points per game and allows 11.75 points per game.

They scored 17 against Florida (allows 12.75), 48 against SMU (allows 32.75), 70 against South Carolina State (allows 31.80), and 58 against Arkansas (allows 40.60).

That's an average of 18.78 points per game more than their opponents allow.

They allowed 20 against Florida (scores 30.50), 3 against SMU (scores 23.75), 14 against SCSU (scores 15.00), and 10 against Arkansas (scores 23.20).

That's an average of 11.36 less than their opponents score.

Using those stats, they will hold Ole Miss to 21 points and score 46.

Ole Miss averages 32.20 points per game and allows 27.20 points per game.

They scored 49 against Central Arkansas (allows 26.80), 28 against UTEP (allows 29.00), 31 against t.u. (allows 21.00), 39 against Tulane (allows 42.75), and 14 against Alabama (allows 7.00)

That's an average of 6.89 points more than their opponents allow.

They allowed 27 to Central Arkansas (scores 40.00), 10 to UTEP (scores 20.40), 66 to t.u. (scores 47.25), 0 to Tulane (scores 8.00), and 33 to Alabama (scores 40.20)

That's an average of 3.97 less than their opponents score.

Using those stats, Ole Miss scores 19 and allows 44

So, using the predictor:

Ole Miss scores between 19-21
A&M scores between 44-46

Closer than the last game, but Ole Miss is a better team and it's on the road.

Using the A&M stats to predict the rest of the season: (consider any margin more than 10 as a win/loss and anything less as a toss-up)

A&M 56, Louisiana Tech 41
A&M 31, LSU 28
A&M 42, Auburn 6
A&M 32, Mississippi State 25
Alabama 28, A&M 26
A&M 42, Sam Houston State 25
A&M 42, Missouri 16
This post was edited on 9/30/12 at 4:25 pm
Posted by Greg09Ag
Third Coast yuh heeeeard
Member since Sep 2011
3168 posts
Posted on 9/30/12 at 1:55 pm to
Now you're just teasing us.
Posted by ChrisTAMU
Member since Aug 2011
811 posts
Posted on 9/30/12 at 3:57 pm to
quote:

A&M 56, Louisiana Tech 41
A&M 31, LSU 28
A&M 42, Auburn 6
A&M 32, Mississippi State 25
Alabama 28, A&M 26
A&M 42, Sam Houston State 25
A&M 42, Missouri 16


Posted by jaxson11
Texas
Member since Jun 2010
97 posts
Posted on 9/30/12 at 4:15 pm to
I hope that I can bump this thread at the end of the season applauding you as a genius and asking for betting advice.
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
81611 posts
Posted on 9/30/12 at 4:17 pm to
You need at least 3 games' worth of data before you can start using these metrics.
Posted by Jobu93
Cypress TX
Member since Sep 2011
21085 posts
Posted on 9/30/12 at 4:44 pm to
Injuries will jack this up.

I hope to hell itself you are right though.
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
81611 posts
Posted on 9/30/12 at 4:48 pm to
quote:

Injuries will jack this up.


Using this metric, I predicted that Arkansas would score between 14-16 and that A&M would score between 49-51.

I wasn't that far off.
Posted by texmariner84
H-town
Member since Aug 2011
556 posts
Posted on 10/1/12 at 1:57 pm to
I have a 44 - 24 feeling about this one. So I like you're prediction.
Posted by eshark
Houston, Texas
Member since Jan 2012
71 posts
Posted on 10/2/12 at 6:28 pm to
quote:

I hope that I can bump this thread at the end of the season applauding you as a genius and asking for betting advice.


This
Posted by Jobu93
Cypress TX
Member since Sep 2011
21085 posts
Posted on 10/3/12 at 3:43 pm to
If this works out again, VEGAS TIME!
Posted by Big Kat
Member since Feb 2009
5913 posts
Posted on 10/3/12 at 4:15 pm to
What has Ole Miss looked like at home with turnover margin?
Posted by Farmer1906
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Apr 2009
51791 posts
Posted on 10/3/12 at 7:21 pm to
-5 on the year or -1 per game.

-2 v Bama
+1 v Tulane
-3 v t.u.
-2 v UTEP
+1 v C Ark
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
81611 posts
Posted on 10/3/12 at 7:28 pm to
quote:

What has Ole Miss looked like at home with turnover margin?


vs. Central Arkansas: +1 (1 giveaway, 2 takeaway)
vs. UTEP: -2 (3 giveaway, 1 takeaway)
vs. Texas: -3 (3 giveaway, 0 takeaway)

Overall -4 at home (avg. -1.33).

Their turnover margin at home got steadily worse over their first three games.

Against Tulane, they were a +1 (3 giveaway, 4 takeaway) and against Alabama, they were a -2 (3 giveaway, 1 takeaway.

Their overall turnover margin is -1 (total margin of -5).

Bo Wallace's TD:INT ratio is 7:6 and, as a team, their overall TD:INT ratio is 8:7.

Also, they have 6 lost fumbles compared to 13 rushing TDs. Their rush TD:lost fumble ratio is almost 2:1...which is BAD.

As a team, Ole Miss has 22 touchdowns after 5 games, only 6 more than Manziel has scored in 4.
This post was edited on 10/3/12 at 7:32 pm
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
81611 posts
Posted on 10/6/12 at 9:50 pm to
Clearly I need to add a home/road factor.

I was off by 6 (+6, -6) against Arkansas and was off 10 (+6, -14) tonight.
first pageprev pagePage 1 of 1Next pagelast page
refresh

Back to top
logoFollow SECRant for SEC Football News
Follow us on X and Facebook to get the latest updates on SEC Football and Recruiting.

FacebookTwitter