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Fun with scoring stats (A&M at Ole Miss)
Posted on 9/30/12 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 9/30/12 at 1:26 pm
Last week, I used these to predict the score within 6 points each way so I'll try again.
Texas A&M averages 48.25 points per game and allows 11.75 points per game.
They scored 17 against Florida (allows 12.75), 48 against SMU (allows 32.75), 70 against South Carolina State (allows 31.80), and 58 against Arkansas (allows 40.60).
That's an average of 18.78 points per game more than their opponents allow.
They allowed 20 against Florida (scores 30.50), 3 against SMU (scores 23.75), 14 against SCSU (scores 15.00), and 10 against Arkansas (scores 23.20).
That's an average of 11.36 less than their opponents score.
Using those stats, they will hold Ole Miss to 21 points and score 46.
Ole Miss averages 32.20 points per game and allows 27.20 points per game.
They scored 49 against Central Arkansas (allows 26.80), 28 against UTEP (allows 29.00), 31 against t.u. (allows 21.00), 39 against Tulane (allows 42.75), and 14 against Alabama (allows 7.00)
That's an average of 6.89 points more than their opponents allow.
They allowed 27 to Central Arkansas (scores 40.00), 10 to UTEP (scores 20.40), 66 to t.u. (scores 47.25), 0 to Tulane (scores 8.00), and 33 to Alabama (scores 40.20)
That's an average of 3.97 less than their opponents score.
Using those stats, Ole Miss scores 19 and allows 44
So, using the predictor:
Ole Miss scores between 19-21
A&M scores between 44-46
Closer than the last game, but Ole Miss is a better team and it's on the road.
Using the A&M stats to predict the rest of the season: (consider any margin more than 10 as a win/loss and anything less as a toss-up)
A&M 56, Louisiana Tech 41
A&M 31, LSU 28
A&M 42, Auburn 6
A&M 32, Mississippi State 25
Alabama 28, A&M 26
A&M 42, Sam Houston State 25
A&M 42, Missouri 16
Texas A&M averages 48.25 points per game and allows 11.75 points per game.
They scored 17 against Florida (allows 12.75), 48 against SMU (allows 32.75), 70 against South Carolina State (allows 31.80), and 58 against Arkansas (allows 40.60).
That's an average of 18.78 points per game more than their opponents allow.
They allowed 20 against Florida (scores 30.50), 3 against SMU (scores 23.75), 14 against SCSU (scores 15.00), and 10 against Arkansas (scores 23.20).
That's an average of 11.36 less than their opponents score.
Using those stats, they will hold Ole Miss to 21 points and score 46.
Ole Miss averages 32.20 points per game and allows 27.20 points per game.
They scored 49 against Central Arkansas (allows 26.80), 28 against UTEP (allows 29.00), 31 against t.u. (allows 21.00), 39 against Tulane (allows 42.75), and 14 against Alabama (allows 7.00)
That's an average of 6.89 points more than their opponents allow.
They allowed 27 to Central Arkansas (scores 40.00), 10 to UTEP (scores 20.40), 66 to t.u. (scores 47.25), 0 to Tulane (scores 8.00), and 33 to Alabama (scores 40.20)
That's an average of 3.97 less than their opponents score.
Using those stats, Ole Miss scores 19 and allows 44
So, using the predictor:
Ole Miss scores between 19-21
A&M scores between 44-46
Closer than the last game, but Ole Miss is a better team and it's on the road.
Using the A&M stats to predict the rest of the season: (consider any margin more than 10 as a win/loss and anything less as a toss-up)
A&M 56, Louisiana Tech 41
A&M 31, LSU 28
A&M 42, Auburn 6
A&M 32, Mississippi State 25
Alabama 28, A&M 26
A&M 42, Sam Houston State 25
A&M 42, Missouri 16
This post was edited on 9/30/12 at 4:25 pm
Posted on 9/30/12 at 1:55 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Now you're just teasing us.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 3:57 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
A&M 56, Louisiana Tech 41
A&M 31, LSU 28
A&M 42, Auburn 6
A&M 32, Mississippi State 25
Alabama 28, A&M 26
A&M 42, Sam Houston State 25
A&M 42, Missouri 16
Posted on 9/30/12 at 4:15 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
I hope that I can bump this thread at the end of the season applauding you as a genius and asking for betting advice.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 4:17 pm to jaxson11
You need at least 3 games' worth of data before you can start using these metrics.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 4:44 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Injuries will jack this up.
I hope to hell itself you are right though.
I hope to hell itself you are right though.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 4:48 pm to Jobu93
quote:
Injuries will jack this up.
Using this metric, I predicted that Arkansas would score between 14-16 and that A&M would score between 49-51.
I wasn't that far off.
Posted on 10/1/12 at 1:57 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
I have a 44 - 24 feeling about this one. So I like you're prediction.
Posted on 10/2/12 at 6:28 pm to jaxson11
quote:
I hope that I can bump this thread at the end of the season applauding you as a genius and asking for betting advice.
This
Posted on 10/3/12 at 3:43 pm to eshark
If this works out again, VEGAS TIME!
Posted on 10/3/12 at 4:15 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
What has Ole Miss looked like at home with turnover margin?
Posted on 10/3/12 at 7:21 pm to Big Kat
-5 on the year or -1 per game.
-2 v Bama
+1 v Tulane
-3 v t.u.
-2 v UTEP
+1 v C Ark
-2 v Bama
+1 v Tulane
-3 v t.u.
-2 v UTEP
+1 v C Ark
Posted on 10/3/12 at 7:28 pm to Big Kat
quote:
What has Ole Miss looked like at home with turnover margin?
vs. Central Arkansas: +1 (1 giveaway, 2 takeaway)
vs. UTEP: -2 (3 giveaway, 1 takeaway)
vs. Texas: -3 (3 giveaway, 0 takeaway)
Overall -4 at home (avg. -1.33).
Their turnover margin at home got steadily worse over their first three games.
Against Tulane, they were a +1 (3 giveaway, 4 takeaway) and against Alabama, they were a -2 (3 giveaway, 1 takeaway.
Their overall turnover margin is -1 (total margin of -5).
Bo Wallace's TD:INT ratio is 7:6 and, as a team, their overall TD:INT ratio is 8:7.
Also, they have 6 lost fumbles compared to 13 rushing TDs. Their rush TD:lost fumble ratio is almost 2:1...which is BAD.
As a team, Ole Miss has 22 touchdowns after 5 games, only 6 more than Manziel has scored in 4.
This post was edited on 10/3/12 at 7:32 pm
Posted on 10/6/12 at 9:50 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Clearly I need to add a home/road factor.
I was off by 6 (+6, -6) against Arkansas and was off 10 (+6, -14) tonight.
I was off by 6 (+6, -6) against Arkansas and was off 10 (+6, -14) tonight.
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