re: Key to a dominant sec team.

quote:

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Clock controlling offense

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NOTE: in this post I am not trying to be a dick. I have been a dick at various points throughout this thread, but only towards Rickdaddy, and only in response to him being a dick first. Glad we got that cleared up.

1. A clock-controlling offense, and the benefits that flow therefrom, is conventional wisdom in football.
2. Conventional wisdom is often completely incorrect.
3. So much so that the term should be renamed.

If Team A is better than Team B, an offensive strategy of "controlling the clock" is not only a bad strategy for Team A, it is actually the worst possible strategy that Team A can employ.

Think about it like this. Are upsets (simply defined as the better team losing to the worse team) more common in hockey or in basketball? They are more likely in hockey. The best team in the NHL in a given year will win roughly 65% of its games. The best team in the NBA in a given year will win roughly 80% of its games.

The reason for this completely intuitive. Hockey is a lower scoring game than basketball. And in games were there is less scoring, the chances of there being a flukey or lucky outcome are increased. A lucky goal or two in hockey usually results in a win for that team. A lucky three pointer or two in basketball does not.

So back to our football example. If you're Team A, the worst possible thing you can do is decrease the number of possessions in the game. All this does is increase the likelihood of a flukey event such as a fumble returned for a TD or a pick six on a deflected pass being a game-changing (i.e. game-winning) event for Team B.

If you are Team A and you have the ability to score quickly, you score quickly.