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re: Pat Forde grades the Pac-10 and SEC
Posted on 11/30/10 at 8:00 pm to GWfool
Posted on 11/30/10 at 8:00 pm to GWfool
quote:
The SEC WEST has more bowl eligbile teams than the entire Pac 10 conference. We cannibalize ourselves. He is just butthurt his Boise St. bus is gone.
The Pac-10 cannibalizes itself more than any other conference because of its 9 conference game slate.
Ted Miller is the Pac-10 blogger on ESPN, he is from SEC country but does a great job with the Pac-10 beat. He has a great write-up on how the Pac-10 beats itself up and what it has to overcome: ESPN Link
It has a sensationalist headline but he readily admits that a few paragraphs in. Regardless of your opinion on the Pac-10, I would recommend reading it.
Having said that, it's definitely a funny year for the Pac-10. You know how Georgia was a little schizophrenic this year? That's how Cal, Oregon St, Arizona, Washington and USC all played. For the first 8 games, Cal beat down opponents at home and got beat down on the road. OSU beat highly ranked Arizona, lost to Washington, beat down Cal, lost to UCLA and Washington St (lol), crushed USC and then got blanked by Stanford. Very weird season, and the cannibalization is worse than usual this year.
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Posted on 11/30/10 at 8:31 pm to Biggus Duckus
So Arkansas at 10-2 with only losses to Auburn and Bama.
LSU with only losses to Auburn and Arkansas
Bama with only losses to Aubrun, LSU and USCe
Miss State with only losses to LSU, Bama, Auburn and Arky.
So these 4 teams only having losses to conference members does not equal cannibalization? Of those teams all losses came to a conference foe, and only one was from the other division. That in my mind equals cannibalization.
LSU with only losses to Auburn and Arkansas
Bama with only losses to Aubrun, LSU and USCe
Miss State with only losses to LSU, Bama, Auburn and Arky.
So these 4 teams only having losses to conference members does not equal cannibalization? Of those teams all losses came to a conference foe, and only one was from the other division. That in my mind equals cannibalization.
Posted on 12/1/10 at 12:20 am to Biggus Duckus
Pac-10 schools play 9 conference games. That means they will average 4.5 wins per team from conference games. They have to win 1.5 out of 3 non-conference games in order to become bowl eligible in a 12 game season. Only 3 Pac-10 schools won less than 2 non-conference games, Oregon State, Washington and Washington State. So 7 of the Pac-10 schools should reasonably be expected to qualify for bowl games.
SEC schools play 8 conference games. That means they will average 4 wins per team from conference games, and they have to win 2 out of 4 non-conference games to become bowl eligible. Only 2 SEC teams won less than 3 non-conference games, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, and they were the only 2 teams from the SEC who are not bowl eligible.
The SEC has completed it regular season so it is possible to calculate the standard deviation from the 4 conference win average for the season. The STDEVP function in Excel returned 1.7795 as the standard deviation from the mean. The Pac-10 has not completed its regular season games. Assuming the teams with better records will win the remaining games I entered the Pac-10 expected results in the STDEVP function. It returned a standard deviation of 2.3770. If I assume the teams with the worse records win all the remaining games , then the standard deviation is 1.9105.
The standard deviation of the SEC is lower than any possible outcome for the Pac-10. I interpret that to mean the SEC is more competitive than the Pac-10 since the teams are closer to the mean. The scary thing about the Pac-10 is that the conference could end up with only two teams winning as many as 5 conference games. If Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA and Washingotn State win this weekend, then only Oregon and Stanford will have won more than 4 conference games. That would leave the Pac-10 with only 4 bowl eligible teams, 5 if you want to count USC who is ineligible due to probation. That is well short of the expected 7 bowl eligible teams based on non-conference results.
To me the Pac-10 failed to meet expectations while the SEC exceeded expectations.
SEC schools play 8 conference games. That means they will average 4 wins per team from conference games, and they have to win 2 out of 4 non-conference games to become bowl eligible. Only 2 SEC teams won less than 3 non-conference games, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, and they were the only 2 teams from the SEC who are not bowl eligible.
The SEC has completed it regular season so it is possible to calculate the standard deviation from the 4 conference win average for the season. The STDEVP function in Excel returned 1.7795 as the standard deviation from the mean. The Pac-10 has not completed its regular season games. Assuming the teams with better records will win the remaining games I entered the Pac-10 expected results in the STDEVP function. It returned a standard deviation of 2.3770. If I assume the teams with the worse records win all the remaining games , then the standard deviation is 1.9105.
The standard deviation of the SEC is lower than any possible outcome for the Pac-10. I interpret that to mean the SEC is more competitive than the Pac-10 since the teams are closer to the mean. The scary thing about the Pac-10 is that the conference could end up with only two teams winning as many as 5 conference games. If Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA and Washingotn State win this weekend, then only Oregon and Stanford will have won more than 4 conference games. That would leave the Pac-10 with only 4 bowl eligible teams, 5 if you want to count USC who is ineligible due to probation. That is well short of the expected 7 bowl eligible teams based on non-conference results.
To me the Pac-10 failed to meet expectations while the SEC exceeded expectations.
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