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Two CFP scenarios to ponder
Posted on 11/11/25 at 2:01 pm
Posted on 11/11/25 at 2:01 pm
Big Vandy fan here (yes, we exist). Would love to see the 'Dores in the CFP, and that only maybe happanes if we win out against UK and @Tenn. The 12th seed will go a G5 team, and it's possible that the ACC champ won't be in the Top 11 either, so Vandy would have to find it's way into the Top 10 to be a lock for the CFP.
Scenario 1:
Suppose Ole Miss lost to UF or Miss State in the next few weeks. Would Vandy jump them?
Vandy losses would be @Bama and @Texas. Ole Miss losses would be @uga and UF/@msu. @Bama and @uga losses are basically equivalent, both losing at Texas is much "better" loss than UF/@msu.
However, Ole Miss's victory @Oklahoma is much better than any of Vandy's Ws as things currently stand. If Mizzou knocked off OU in a few weeks, then it would:
1) Give Vandy a quality W against top 25 team (Mizzou)
2) Drop OU out of the CFP
3) Weaken Ole Miss's win over OU (only really matters if Ole Miss drops another game).
Scenario 2:
UGA loses to Texas. UGA would have losses at home against Bama and Texas, vs. Vandy's losses @Bama and @Texas. Same losses to the same teams, however Vandy's would both be on the road, and UGA's would both be at home.
UGA would have a quality W against Ole Miss as a diferentiator against Vandy though.
However, in that scenario, Texas would also need to lose to A&M, as a 10-2 Texas w/ losses @Ohio State and @UF would get in over a 10-2 Vandy w/ a head-to-head win.
I don't love the argument that a 9-3 Texas (whether their extra L comes from UGA or A&M) gets in over a 10-2 Vandy.
Scenario 1:
Suppose Ole Miss lost to UF or Miss State in the next few weeks. Would Vandy jump them?
Vandy losses would be @Bama and @Texas. Ole Miss losses would be @uga and UF/@msu. @Bama and @uga losses are basically equivalent, both losing at Texas is much "better" loss than UF/@msu.
However, Ole Miss's victory @Oklahoma is much better than any of Vandy's Ws as things currently stand. If Mizzou knocked off OU in a few weeks, then it would:
1) Give Vandy a quality W against top 25 team (Mizzou)
2) Drop OU out of the CFP
3) Weaken Ole Miss's win over OU (only really matters if Ole Miss drops another game).
Scenario 2:
UGA loses to Texas. UGA would have losses at home against Bama and Texas, vs. Vandy's losses @Bama and @Texas. Same losses to the same teams, however Vandy's would both be on the road, and UGA's would both be at home.
UGA would have a quality W against Ole Miss as a diferentiator against Vandy though.
However, in that scenario, Texas would also need to lose to A&M, as a 10-2 Texas w/ losses @Ohio State and @UF would get in over a 10-2 Vandy w/ a head-to-head win.
I don't love the argument that a 9-3 Texas (whether their extra L comes from UGA or A&M) gets in over a 10-2 Vandy.
This post was edited on 11/11/25 at 2:02 pm
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Posted on 11/11/25 at 2:02 pm to blackoutdore
quote:
Big Vandy fan here (yes, we exist)
Posted on 11/11/25 at 2:04 pm to blackoutdore
Vandy needs to win and have as much chaos as possible
Posted on 11/11/25 at 2:23 pm to blackoutdore
quote:
don't love the argument that a 9-3 Texas (whether their extra L comes from UGA or A&M) gets in over a 10-2 Vandy.
I don’t love the argument either. But it’s gonna be brought up. Love it or hate it
Posted on 11/11/25 at 2:26 pm to Decker
quote:
Vandy needs to win and have as much chaos as possible
Just how we like it.
Posted on 11/11/25 at 2:27 pm to blackoutdore
It would be a shame to win out and get left out with only 2 losses.
Posted on 11/11/25 at 3:00 pm to blackoutdore
Vandy needs less chaos than you think IMO. They have to win out, assuming they do here’s what I see.
Vandy was ranked 16 last week. Virginia and Louisville both lost moving Vandy most likely to 14.
Bama and Georgia both win this week, that eliminates 2 teams ahead of them. If either Oklahoma or the shorthorns win out you’re probably not making it.
If Michigan wins out, you won’t make it.
If the teams lose who should though, win and you’re in. Which I would LOVE to see Vandy make the CFP before Auburn.
Vandy was ranked 16 last week. Virginia and Louisville both lost moving Vandy most likely to 14.
Bama and Georgia both win this week, that eliminates 2 teams ahead of them. If either Oklahoma or the shorthorns win out you’re probably not making it.
If Michigan wins out, you won’t make it.
If the teams lose who should though, win and you’re in. Which I would LOVE to see Vandy make the CFP before Auburn.
Posted on 11/11/25 at 3:20 pm to blackoutdore
Vanderbilt's best chance in my opinion is a fifth SEC team making the playoffs.
Alabama would need to eliminate Oklahoma.
Georgia would need to eliminate Texas.
Those two results, along with Vanderbilt winning out against Kentucky and Tennessee, makes Vanderbilt the fifth best SEC team. They would need to rise to the top 10 in the CFP rankings as well, considering the ACC and Group of 5 bid.
Vanderbilt is projected to be No. 13 tonight. They would need three teams in front of them to lose. Texas and Oklahoma would drop below them with the losses above. They would need one more team to drop. Here are the best chances:
BYU (TCU, Cincy, UCF, potential Big 12 CG against Texas Tech) - I think BYU drops at least one more. There are pundits that say if BYU and TT win out and BYU wins the CG, both teams will get in.
Notre Dame (Pitt, Syracuse, Stanford) - Pitt can beat them. Other than that, I don't see them losing.
Oregon (Minnesota, USC, Washington) - Oregon might need to lose twice.
Additionally, they would need as many teams in the top 11 to win their conferences. The SEC is guaranteed. The Big Ten could still see Michigan in the championship game. The Big 12 could have a Texas Tech-Arizona State Championship Game - you dont need ASU.stealing a spot.
The best possible game result for Vanderbilt this weekend outside the SEC is Pittsburgh beating Notre Dame.
The playoffs seem to be:
3 from B1G - Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon
4 from SEC - A&M, Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss
1 from Big 12 - Texas Tech or BYU
1 from ACC - Georgia Tech, Virginia, Duke, or Pittsburgh
1 from Group of 5
1 Notre Dame if they win out
1 wild card (2 if ND loses):
second Big 12 team (TT/BYU or surprise winner like Cincy/Houston/ASU)
fifth SEC team (Texas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt)
fourth Big Ten team (Michigan if they win out, USC in a chaos chamber*)
*USC plays Indiana in Big Ten championship if USC wins out vs. Iowa, Oregon, UCLA + Michigan beats Ohio State.
Alabama would need to eliminate Oklahoma.
Georgia would need to eliminate Texas.
Those two results, along with Vanderbilt winning out against Kentucky and Tennessee, makes Vanderbilt the fifth best SEC team. They would need to rise to the top 10 in the CFP rankings as well, considering the ACC and Group of 5 bid.
Vanderbilt is projected to be No. 13 tonight. They would need three teams in front of them to lose. Texas and Oklahoma would drop below them with the losses above. They would need one more team to drop. Here are the best chances:
BYU (TCU, Cincy, UCF, potential Big 12 CG against Texas Tech) - I think BYU drops at least one more. There are pundits that say if BYU and TT win out and BYU wins the CG, both teams will get in.
Notre Dame (Pitt, Syracuse, Stanford) - Pitt can beat them. Other than that, I don't see them losing.
Oregon (Minnesota, USC, Washington) - Oregon might need to lose twice.
Additionally, they would need as many teams in the top 11 to win their conferences. The SEC is guaranteed. The Big Ten could still see Michigan in the championship game. The Big 12 could have a Texas Tech-Arizona State Championship Game - you dont need ASU.stealing a spot.
The best possible game result for Vanderbilt this weekend outside the SEC is Pittsburgh beating Notre Dame.
The playoffs seem to be:
3 from B1G - Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon
4 from SEC - A&M, Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss
1 from Big 12 - Texas Tech or BYU
1 from ACC - Georgia Tech, Virginia, Duke, or Pittsburgh
1 from Group of 5
1 Notre Dame if they win out
1 wild card (2 if ND loses):
second Big 12 team (TT/BYU or surprise winner like Cincy/Houston/ASU)
fifth SEC team (Texas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt)
fourth Big Ten team (Michigan if they win out, USC in a chaos chamber*)
*USC plays Indiana in Big Ten championship if USC wins out vs. Iowa, Oregon, UCLA + Michigan beats Ohio State.
This post was edited on 11/11/25 at 3:32 pm
Posted on 11/11/25 at 3:20 pm to blackoutdore
I think a 2 loss Vandy is above a 2 loss Ole Miss.
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