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For skeptics of the new NIL/Portal of College Football
Posted on 11/4/25 at 10:10 pm
Posted on 11/4/25 at 10:10 pm
I was, and remain in some ways, its harshest critic. So much so I stopped watching midseason last year and didn't watch my beloved Crimson Tides last 5 games, the playoffs or NCG. But this seasons surprise contenders has greatly surprised me forcing me to question my initial evaluation of the impacts of NIL and the portal - and 12 team playoff. What surprised me most is the 2025 parity - or competitive uprising if you like - of teams who have historically been also-rans and cellar dwellers: Indiana, Illinoise, Virginia, BYU, Louisville, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Miami (and even an already a highly improved LK led Ole Miss) have used NIL & the Portal to instantly rebuild their rosters to become real competition for the Bluebloods, on both sides of the ball - shaking up the tried and true historic conventional college powers in ways I've never seen in my lifetime. NIL, the Portal, and 12 Team Playoff has lit a fire across the nation adding fans and interest from areas north and west that lost massive interest and fans of college football over the last decade.
As of now it appears NIL, the Portal, and 12 team Playoff have rejuvenated college football in places where it was declining and created an air of unpredictability and excitement that hasn't been around for a half century or more. I have to admit it appears to be a good thing despite its warts.
As of now it appears NIL, the Portal, and 12 team Playoff have rejuvenated college football in places where it was declining and created an air of unpredictability and excitement that hasn't been around for a half century or more. I have to admit it appears to be a good thing despite its warts.
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Posted on 11/4/25 at 10:17 pm to TrendingRight
I don't see this parity. It looks like the same thing that's always been going on. Teams come, teams go. It was teams like Boise St and such back in the day.
Go look at recruiting rankings and it's basically the same as always. Vandy has about the same rankings as 2015. So do schools like Arkansas who is much worse than Vandy right now. Arkansas is about a 22ish ranked class most year, and Vandy around 40-50.
In truth the biggest factor is still coaching staffs. Indiana isn't spending big money on recruiting. Last year - #39 class with 46 recruits. 2024, #46 with 48 recruits.
46 and 48 recruits = 94 recruits incoming the past year. Almost all 3 stars. So if anything, good staffs are recognizing and cycling talent. We went from having an average incoming class of about 25 to 40 on average. But it's happening everywhere. Alabama took in 43 in 2024.
What matters for these up and coming schools is if they can retain their coaches. They don't stay at the top because someone usually comes along and takes their coach.
Go look at recruiting rankings and it's basically the same as always. Vandy has about the same rankings as 2015. So do schools like Arkansas who is much worse than Vandy right now. Arkansas is about a 22ish ranked class most year, and Vandy around 40-50.
In truth the biggest factor is still coaching staffs. Indiana isn't spending big money on recruiting. Last year - #39 class with 46 recruits. 2024, #46 with 48 recruits.
46 and 48 recruits = 94 recruits incoming the past year. Almost all 3 stars. So if anything, good staffs are recognizing and cycling talent. We went from having an average incoming class of about 25 to 40 on average. But it's happening everywhere. Alabama took in 43 in 2024.
What matters for these up and coming schools is if they can retain their coaches. They don't stay at the top because someone usually comes along and takes their coach.
Posted on 11/4/25 at 10:20 pm to 3down10
quote:
I don't see this parity.
It’s just because Hugh freeze beat ya back to back before.
Posted on 11/4/25 at 10:23 pm to TrendingRight
The Texas Aggies will be one of the main beneficiaries of NIL in the long run.
They can outspend 95% of the traditional powers.
You'll see the Blue Bloods yearning for salary caps if schools like A&M start dominating.
They can outspend 95% of the traditional powers.
You'll see the Blue Bloods yearning for salary caps if schools like A&M start dominating.
Posted on 11/4/25 at 10:25 pm to BurnsideStyle
quote:
It’s just because Hugh freeze beat ya back to back before.
That man has made millions off that.
2007 must have been part of the NIL/Portal era.
That year, a 2 loss team won the NC. Missouri was a top 4 team. West Virginia was hot, Kansas a top10 team. VT back in those times was considered a serious contender, and Alabama wasn't even ranked at all.
Even Hawaii was a top20 team, imagine that.
Posted on 11/4/25 at 10:47 pm to 3down10
People just want NIL/ the portal to bring more parity so they look at it with confirmation bias. Notice, it's mostly Mizzou and Ole Miss fans parroting this take.
I think the gap between the top and bottom is a bit smaller now but there hasn't been a massive landscape shift to where Mizzou and Ole Miss are now actual natty contenders.
If they win one, I will publicly eat crow, but I don't see it happening.
I think the gap between the top and bottom is a bit smaller now but there hasn't been a massive landscape shift to where Mizzou and Ole Miss are now actual natty contenders.
If they win one, I will publicly eat crow, but I don't see it happening.
Posted on 11/4/25 at 10:50 pm to SidewalkTiger
quote:
there hasn't been a massive landscape shift to where Mizzou and Ole Miss are now actual natty contenders.
Posted on 11/4/25 at 10:53 pm to SPAGHETTI PLATE
A&M just needs to get a competent head coach and administration, they've had the resources for a while now to be competitive.
Maybe Elko is that guy.
It isn't the same conversation with A&M as it is with Mizzou and Ole Miss IMO.
Maybe Elko is that guy.
It isn't the same conversation with A&M as it is with Mizzou and Ole Miss IMO.
Posted on 11/4/25 at 11:19 pm to 3down10
quote:
Go look at recruiting rankings and it's basically the same as always. Vandy has about the same rankings as 2015. So do schools like Arkansas who is much worse than Vandy right now. Arkansas is about a 22ish ranked class most year, and Vandy around 40-50.
But are you taking into consideration portal rankings which arguably have a greater immediate impact on improving a team?
Someone mentioned Ole Miss and Mizzou harping on this. Well, in 2024 Ole Miss had the #1 transfer ranking per 24/7 and Mizzou #13. For 2025, Ole Miss was #4 and Mizzou #7. You keep that up and you can elevate a team pretty quick.
Can’t really explain Vandy’s improvement tho. They were #39 and #36 respectively in the two years, or pretty close to their usual recruiting rankings.
Posted on 11/4/25 at 11:29 pm to CelticTiger
quote:
Someone mentioned Ole Miss and Mizzou harping on this. Well, in 2024 Ole Miss had the #1 transfer ranking per 24/7 and Mizzou #13. For 2025, Ole Miss was #4 and Mizzou #7. You keep that up and you can elevate a team pretty quick.
This is mostly just because both of you take a bunch of portal players.
If you combine recruits + transfers for 2025, Mizzou is 9th in the SEC and Ole Miss is 10th. Now obviously, that's high for you both but you also have entrenched staffs and have been winning at a high clip for years now.
Meanwhile, schools like Auburn, LSU, and Florida have been struggling for a few years yet are still 4, 5, and 6.
Posted on 11/5/25 at 12:02 am to CelticTiger
quote:
But are you taking into consideration portal rankings which arguably have a greater immediate impact on improving a team?
Someone mentioned Ole Miss and Mizzou harping on this. Well, in 2024 Ole Miss had the #1 transfer ranking per 24/7 and Mizzou #13. For 2025, Ole Miss was #4 and Mizzou #7. You keep that up and you can elevate a team pretty quick.
Can’t really explain Vandy’s improvement tho. They were #39 and #36 respectively in the two years, or pretty close to their usual recruiting rankings.
Yes, I am using the overall rankings which is a combination of the recruiting rankings and the transfer rankings. That's why the classes are 40+
I figure it's the best way to judge what teams are really bringing in, since as you said, Ole Miss is more about the transfer portal than new recruits in the past few years.
Missouri was #14 overall last year, 39 commits. But I'm not sure your final results are going to be all that great to say you've been elevated. You played 5 home games to start the season with mostly easy teams.
Maybe if you can pull off a win against A&M, otherwise you might end up unranked with a mediocre season. And then you've got Oklahoma also. You'll basically end up finishing the season 8-4 while losing to all the good teams you played against.
Ole Miss was #16 last year with 53 recruits. But only an 88.66 average. Top teams are pulling in 90-93. Ole Miss has benefited from a pretty easy schedule this year.
Auburn last year was #6 with 46 commits and near 90 average. Doesn't mean anything if you don't have a good coach and staff.
Posted on 11/5/25 at 12:10 am to 3down10
quote:
Yes, I am using the overall rankings which is a combination of the recruiting rankings and the transfer rankings. That's why the classes are 40+
I figure it's the best way to judge what teams are really bringing in, since as you said, Ole Miss is more about the transfer portal than new recruits in the past few years.
Missouri was #14 overall last year, 39 commits. But I'm not sure your final results are going to be all that great to say you've been elevated. You played 5 home games to start the season with mostly easy teams.
Maybe if you can pull off a win against A&M, otherwise you might end up unranked with a mediocre season. And then you've got Oklahoma also. You'll basically end up finishing the season 8-4 while losing to all the good teams you played against.
Ole Miss was #16 last year with 53 recruits. But only an 88.66 average. Top teams are pulling in 90-93. Ole Miss has benefited from a pretty easy schedule this year.
Auburn last year was #6 with 46 commits and near 90 average. Doesn't mean anything if you don't have a good coach and staff.
OK - good argument. But explain Indiana, Georgia Tech, BYU, Texas Tech Virginia - and a host of others. NIL and the Portal have given teams with a competent coach a path to quick success they've never had before. Now that the whole of college football sees it they will connect the dots and parity will be 10 times more likely and obvious.
Posted on 11/5/25 at 12:15 am to TrendingRight
quote:
But explain Indiana, Georgia Tech, BYU, Texas Tech Virginia - and a host of others. NIL and the Portal have given teams with a competent coach a path to quick success they've never had before. Now that the whole of college football sees it they will connect the dots and parity will be 10 times more likely and obvious.
That's always been the case.
Here's the AP Top 25 from ten years ago, November 1:
2. Baylor
3. Clemson (they were an upstart back then)
5. TCU
6. Michigan State
9. Stanford
12. Oklahoma State
13. Utah
15. Memphis
18. Houston
20. Toledo
21. North Carolina
22. UCLA
23. Temple
24. Mississippi State
Posted on 11/5/25 at 12:21 am to SidewalkTiger
I know the CFP doesn't take the top 12 but the top 12 in the final CFP poll that year were:
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Michigan State
4, Oklahoma
5. Iowa
6. Stanford
7. Ohio State
8. Notre Dame
9. Florida State
10. North Carolina
11. TCU
12. Ole Miss
You also had Northwestern at #13, Baylor at #17, Houston at #18, Navy at #21, and Temple at #24.
It's not like non-powers just suddenly started having good seasons.
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Michigan State
4, Oklahoma
5. Iowa
6. Stanford
7. Ohio State
8. Notre Dame
9. Florida State
10. North Carolina
11. TCU
12. Ole Miss
You also had Northwestern at #13, Baylor at #17, Houston at #18, Navy at #21, and Temple at #24.
It's not like non-powers just suddenly started having good seasons.
Posted on 11/5/25 at 12:36 am to 3down10
I don’t think it’s apples to apples comparing combined high school plus portal class between teams. There’s not a great ranking system that integrates the two. The high school side carries a far greater weight. If you’re portal heavy it skews the average lower. It’s better to compare each side of it on it’s own. Time will tell
Posted on 11/5/25 at 12:39 am to TrendingRight
quote:
OK - good argument. But explain Indiana, Georgia Tech, BYU, Texas Tech Virginia - and a host of others. NIL and the Portal have given teams with a competent coach a path to quick success they've never had before. Now that the whole of college football sees it they will connect the dots and parity will be 10 times more likely and obvious.
There isn't really anything to explain. Teams like this come up every year, and then their coaches get hired away and they fall back down.
Name a year and I bet you can find 3 or 4 teams just like the ones you named. Did you know BYU won a national championship in 1983? Crazy shite.
The biggest thing in your list isn't any of those teams having good season. The biggest thing is that Indiana appears to have actually been able to keep it's good coach for now. That's what it actually takes.
This post was edited on 11/5/25 at 12:40 am
Posted on 11/5/25 at 12:42 am to Raoul_Duke
quote:
I don’t think it’s apples to apples comparing combined high school plus portal class between teams. There’s not a great ranking system that integrates the two. The high school side carries a far greater weight. If you’re portal heavy it skews the average lower. It’s better to compare each side of it on it’s own. Time will tell
They are all re-evaluated on the same scoring system. Some players maintain their high school scores, some improve. Most however drop a little and that's also the reason why they are transferring to begin with - they got beat out on a better team.
I don't know how accurate any of the scores are, but that seems to be working as it should be.
Posted on 11/5/25 at 12:49 am to 3down10
quote:
They are all re-evaluated on the same scoring system. Some players maintain their high school scores, some improve. Most however drop a little and that's also the reason why they are transferring to begin with - they got beat out on a better team.
I don't know how accurate any of the scores are, but that seems to be working as it should be.
Two examples of the error of your analysis: Jahmyr Gibbs and Alvin Kamara.
eta: Jameson Williams
This post was edited on 11/5/25 at 12:52 am
Posted on 11/5/25 at 12:54 am to TrendingRight
quote:
Two examples of the error of your analysis: Jahmyr Gibbs and Alvin Kamara.
Huh?
Posted on 11/5/25 at 12:55 am to 3down10
quote:
That man has made millions off that. 2007 must have been part of the NIL/Portal era. That year, a 2 loss team won the NC. Missouri was a top 4 team. West Virginia was hot, Kansas a top10 team. VT back in those times was considered a serious contender, and Alabama wasn't even ranked at all. Even Hawaii was a top20 team, imagine that.
You were ranked.
“You are the caretaker Mr. Torrance. You’ve always been the caretaker.” -Delbert Grady
This post was edited on 11/5/25 at 12:57 am
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