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Playoffs (long post)
Posted on 10/30/25 at 4:51 pm
Posted on 10/30/25 at 4:51 pm
I feel they are taking pretty good shape already…
List (not seeding)
1. GO5 rep
2. ND if they win out (like it or not I think this is a fairly safe bet, 100% out with a third loss and opens up another playoff spot.). Also could be in jeopardy if we finish with multiple 2 loss SEC teams.
3-5 Big Ten - seems hard to believe the representatives aren’t anything less or more than OSU, IU and Oregon.
6. Big 12 champ - I know there are some ways they could get two but I think when it washes out in the end it’ll be one - but obviously this along with the ACC has more variable to it.
7,8. ACC - as it stands I think the ACC has a better percentage chance of getting two than just one - I think assuming three bids between the two lesser leagues is the best way to guess as I don’t think both will have only one.
9-12 SEC - the SEC is looking pretty clear. A&M and Ole Miss seem like they are near locks at this point - hard to imagine how either would take a third loss that wasn’t in an SEC championship game with their current records and schedule ahead. Bama and Georgia obviously are best positioned for the other two. Texas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Oklahoma and possibly even Missouri (long shot with QB issues and schedule) would still control their destinies for a playoff spot should they win out (Vandy could potentially lose one). Most of this will take care of itself but if my math is correct the possibility of 6 SEC teams with two overall losses or less still remains. Hard to imagine a 2 loss SEC team being excluded - so that would come at the expense of a Big 12 or ACC second team and/or ND.
I think any chance of a 3 loss team being included is diminishing quite a bit with each week as I look through the landscape and remaining schedules (aside from the inclusion of a possible 2 loss SEC team that loses in the SEC champ game.)
SEC bids - 3 is the floor but extremely unlikely.
4 - most possible number IMO
5 - less possible but very realistic
6 - statistically possible if Big 10 gets theee and ND is excluded - very long shot but could be justified with SEC scenario of 6 1-2 loss teams.
List (not seeding)
1. GO5 rep
2. ND if they win out (like it or not I think this is a fairly safe bet, 100% out with a third loss and opens up another playoff spot.). Also could be in jeopardy if we finish with multiple 2 loss SEC teams.
3-5 Big Ten - seems hard to believe the representatives aren’t anything less or more than OSU, IU and Oregon.
6. Big 12 champ - I know there are some ways they could get two but I think when it washes out in the end it’ll be one - but obviously this along with the ACC has more variable to it.
7,8. ACC - as it stands I think the ACC has a better percentage chance of getting two than just one - I think assuming three bids between the two lesser leagues is the best way to guess as I don’t think both will have only one.
9-12 SEC - the SEC is looking pretty clear. A&M and Ole Miss seem like they are near locks at this point - hard to imagine how either would take a third loss that wasn’t in an SEC championship game with their current records and schedule ahead. Bama and Georgia obviously are best positioned for the other two. Texas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Oklahoma and possibly even Missouri (long shot with QB issues and schedule) would still control their destinies for a playoff spot should they win out (Vandy could potentially lose one). Most of this will take care of itself but if my math is correct the possibility of 6 SEC teams with two overall losses or less still remains. Hard to imagine a 2 loss SEC team being excluded - so that would come at the expense of a Big 12 or ACC second team and/or ND.
I think any chance of a 3 loss team being included is diminishing quite a bit with each week as I look through the landscape and remaining schedules (aside from the inclusion of a possible 2 loss SEC team that loses in the SEC champ game.)
SEC bids - 3 is the floor but extremely unlikely.
4 - most possible number IMO
5 - less possible but very realistic
6 - statistically possible if Big 10 gets theee and ND is excluded - very long shot but could be justified with SEC scenario of 6 1-2 loss teams.
6
Posted on 10/30/25 at 4:54 pm to mortgageman82
What does this have to do with the LSU coaching search?
Posted on 10/30/25 at 5:08 pm to Wolfhound45
LSU fans are dazed and confused
Posted on 10/30/25 at 5:11 pm to Wolfhound45
quote:
What does this have to do with the LSU coaching search?
Just look for titles that say playoffs or are about winning and skip those threads, they don’t involve LSU.
Posted on 10/30/25 at 5:15 pm to Smokeyone
quote:
Just look for titles
quote:
skip those threads, they don’t involve Tennessee.
FIFY
Posted on 10/30/25 at 5:19 pm to lsudave1
quote:
lsudave1
Oh sweet summer child. Vols are going 10-2 (again) and likely the last SEC school in.
Posted on 10/30/25 at 5:45 pm to mortgageman82
SYSTEM MESSAGE: SEC_RECORDS_MAINFRAME v4.7.2
POST ID: 8374689
TIMESTAMP: 2025.10.30.1541.EDT
INPUT RECEIVED
"Generate diagnostic: Notre Dame football considered for CFP despite losing first 2 games"
DIAGNOSTIC MODULE: PLAYOFF_ELIGIBILITY_SCANNER v5.0
SUBJECT: NOTRE_DAME_FOOTBALL
RECORD: 0–2 start (losses to Texas A&M, Northern Illinois)
CURRENT STATUS: 5–2 after five straight wins
RANKINGS: AP #12, Coaches #13
CFP FORMAT: 12-team field (6 auto-bids to conference champs, 6 at-large)
METRICREADING...
Resume Strength5-game win streak, includes USC, Arkansas, Boise State
Loss QualityTexas A&M (now ranked), Northern Illinois (low impact)
Strength of ScheduleRanked No. 2 through Week 6 (The Athletic)
Remaining Schedule...Boston College, Navy, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Stanford
Win-Out Probability...49%
CFP Projection...54% chance
COMMUNITY SENTIMENT
• “They lost to NIU. That’s a ceiling.”
• “But look at their schedule — they’ve played the nation’s toughest.”
• “If they go 10–2 and beat a ranked Navy team, they deserve in.”
FINAL DIAGNOSTIC
• Playoff Viability: PLAUSIBLE, NOT PROBABLE
• Key Factor: Strength of schedule and late-season ranked wins
• Fatal Flaw: No conference championship game appearance ? no top 4 seed
RECOMMENDATION
• Win out
• Monitor Navy, Pittsburgh, and ACC/SEC standings
• Prepare narrative: “Best 10–2 team in field”
• Accept first-round road game if selected
//NOTRE_DAME_ON_THE_BUBBLE
//SELECTION_DAY_WILL_TELL
//GEAUX_ODDS
POST ID: 8374689
TIMESTAMP: 2025.10.30.1541.EDT
INPUT RECEIVED
"Generate diagnostic: Notre Dame football considered for CFP despite losing first 2 games"
DIAGNOSTIC MODULE: PLAYOFF_ELIGIBILITY_SCANNER v5.0
SUBJECT: NOTRE_DAME_FOOTBALL
RECORD: 0–2 start (losses to Texas A&M, Northern Illinois)
CURRENT STATUS: 5–2 after five straight wins
RANKINGS: AP #12, Coaches #13
CFP FORMAT: 12-team field (6 auto-bids to conference champs, 6 at-large)
METRICREADING...
Resume Strength5-game win streak, includes USC, Arkansas, Boise State
Loss QualityTexas A&M (now ranked), Northern Illinois (low impact)
Strength of ScheduleRanked No. 2 through Week 6 (The Athletic)
Remaining Schedule...Boston College, Navy, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Stanford
Win-Out Probability...49%
CFP Projection...54% chance
COMMUNITY SENTIMENT
• “They lost to NIU. That’s a ceiling.”
• “But look at their schedule — they’ve played the nation’s toughest.”
• “If they go 10–2 and beat a ranked Navy team, they deserve in.”
FINAL DIAGNOSTIC
• Playoff Viability: PLAUSIBLE, NOT PROBABLE
• Key Factor: Strength of schedule and late-season ranked wins
• Fatal Flaw: No conference championship game appearance ? no top 4 seed
RECOMMENDATION
• Win out
• Monitor Navy, Pittsburgh, and ACC/SEC standings
• Prepare narrative: “Best 10–2 team in field”
• Accept first-round road game if selected
//NOTRE_DAME_ON_THE_BUBBLE
//SELECTION_DAY_WILL_TELL
//GEAUX_ODDS
Posted on 10/30/25 at 5:57 pm to Smokeyone
quote:And the first SEC school out.
Vols are going 10-2 (again) and likely the last SEC school in.
Posted on 10/30/25 at 6:03 pm to mortgageman82
SEC should realistically get four. Big Ten should realistically only get three. Maybe a 4th if ND shits the bed. But I don’t see how they lose now. ACC-2 and Big XII-2 and G5 team
Posted on 10/30/25 at 6:14 pm to Smokeyone
quote:
Oh sweet summer child. Vols are going 10-2 (again) and likely the last SEC school in.
1. "Oh sweet summer child" may be the fruitiest saying ever.
2. You have made the CFP once ever (in an expanded field) and you lost by 30.
Posted on 10/30/25 at 6:22 pm to mortgageman82
Guessing you are aware Texas sucks this year?
Posted on 10/30/25 at 6:42 pm to Safety Blitz
Has close to zero to do with me making a general playoff post about analytics, something I enjoy even outside of my team’s involvement.
Sorry I didn’t mention the tigahs.
Are you aware they suck and got their asses handed to them by Aggy in their own stadium?
Sorry I didn’t mention the tigahs.
Are you aware they suck and got their asses handed to them by Aggy in their own stadium?
Posted on 10/30/25 at 6:46 pm to Smokeyone
Vols aren't beating Vandy
Posted on 10/30/25 at 7:00 pm to mortgageman82
Yeah, I saw it in person. It wasn’t pretty.
Posted on 10/30/25 at 7:00 pm to Wolfhound45
quote:
And the first SEC school out.
Better than those that don’t get in. You know schools like LSU that are so poor and dysfunctional that they can’t afford a coach and their governor is wanting to get involved in the coaching search. Everyone talking about Okie turning into Nebraska, LSU is doing their best to join that conversation.
Posted on 10/30/25 at 7:12 pm to Smokeyone
quote:And 1998 is still 1998.
Better than those that don’t get in.
Congrats.
Posted on 10/30/25 at 7:37 pm to mortgageman82
If A&M loses to Mizzou and UTrans, they are out of the SEC championship and out of the playoff. Anyone who thinks otherwise doesn't know how these things work. Late season losses matter more, especially for non-blueboods.
Posted on 10/30/25 at 7:48 pm to Wolfhound45
And LSU is still a dumpster fire.
Posted on 10/30/25 at 7:52 pm to Smokeyone
Fire is put out. Dumpster is being replaced.
Posted on 10/31/25 at 5:57 am to Wolfhound45
quote:
Fire is put out. Dumpster is being replaced.
Is it? Now you don’t have an AD, or a coach, or money to hire either, and your governor wants a say in the contract for both.
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