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After Week 11 SoS rankings.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 11:14 am
Posted on 11/11/24 at 11:14 am
Using the FEI ELS metric. Pretty much the only SoS I consider valid since it's not based on averages.
Strength of schedule ratings represent the number of losses a team two standard deviations above average would expect to have against the schedule of opponents (ELS),
Only for games played thus far, doesn't count future games. Listed in order by overall rank, expected losses to the right.
3. Georgia 1.98
6. Oklahoma 1.88
7. Florida 1.87
8. LSU 1.69
8. Kentucky 1.69
10. USC 1.65
11. Miss St 1.63
12. Vandy 1.58
13. Alabama 1.42
17. Arkansas 1.30
24. Ole Miss 1.10
26. Texas A&M 1.06
39. Missouri .84
42. Auburn .73
45. Tennessee .72
46. Texas .71
Non SEC top 10 teams:
15. Ohio St 1.34
25. Penn St 1.09
27. Oregon 1.06
Teams that are probably only ranked in the top10 because they played an easy schedule:
68. Notre Dame .46
78. BYU .42
107. Indiana .23
My thoughts:
Auburn is fricking terrible. To have that record on that schedule is just fricking insane. Meanwhile, all anyone focuses on is Napier who has played an extremely more difficult schedule and has a better record. I don't get it.
33% of the top 10 are mostly there because they played weak as hell schedules(less than .50 expected losses), all of which are non SEC schools. Really you could make an argument for 50% if you included Tennessee and Texas as anyone below 1 at this point is kind of easy. Still, Texas/Tennessee's schedule is notably harder than the other 3 so I didn't include them.
The SEC makes up 60% of the 10 toughest schedules as well as 60% of the 15 toughest schedules. No other conference comes close. Even the worst SEC schedule is in the top50.
FEI Ratings
Strength of schedule ratings represent the number of losses a team two standard deviations above average would expect to have against the schedule of opponents (ELS),
Only for games played thus far, doesn't count future games. Listed in order by overall rank, expected losses to the right.
3. Georgia 1.98
6. Oklahoma 1.88
7. Florida 1.87
8. LSU 1.69
8. Kentucky 1.69
10. USC 1.65
11. Miss St 1.63
12. Vandy 1.58
13. Alabama 1.42
17. Arkansas 1.30
24. Ole Miss 1.10
26. Texas A&M 1.06
39. Missouri .84
42. Auburn .73
45. Tennessee .72
46. Texas .71
Non SEC top 10 teams:
15. Ohio St 1.34
25. Penn St 1.09
27. Oregon 1.06
Teams that are probably only ranked in the top10 because they played an easy schedule:
68. Notre Dame .46
78. BYU .42
107. Indiana .23
My thoughts:
Auburn is fricking terrible. To have that record on that schedule is just fricking insane. Meanwhile, all anyone focuses on is Napier who has played an extremely more difficult schedule and has a better record. I don't get it.
33% of the top 10 are mostly there because they played weak as hell schedules(less than .50 expected losses), all of which are non SEC schools. Really you could make an argument for 50% if you included Tennessee and Texas as anyone below 1 at this point is kind of easy. Still, Texas/Tennessee's schedule is notably harder than the other 3 so I didn't include them.
The SEC makes up 60% of the 10 toughest schedules as well as 60% of the 15 toughest schedules. No other conference comes close. Even the worst SEC schedule is in the top50.
FEI Ratings
This post was edited on 11/11/24 at 11:16 am
Posted on 11/11/24 at 11:16 am to 3down10
quote:
24. Ole Miss 1.10
45. Tennessee .72
Yeah, if UGA beats TN this week, we are getting in over TN. It really isn't that close.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 11:16 am to 3down10
So Bama is slightly underperforming. About what we all figured I think. Saturday night looks like a big turn in the right direction, provided we don't shite the bed again.

quote:
Auburn is fricking terrible.

Posted on 11/11/24 at 11:23 am to HottyToddy7
quote:
Yeah, if UGA beats TN this week, we are getting in over TN. It really isn't that close.
Lolol keep telling yourself that

Posted on 11/11/24 at 11:25 am to oleyeller
quote:
Lolol keep telling yourself that
Ok why wouldn't we?
Our SOS is much higher. We both lost to bad teams. You beat Bama. We beat UGA. Win @ SC is better than any other win you have. We will be ranked higher is the polls. Computers love us.
Make an argument why you would get in over us.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 11:33 am to HottyToddy7
A lot can happen in the next 3 weeks. But if Ole Miss and Tennessee are both 10-2, I believe Ole Miss would have the inside track.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 11:34 am to 3down10
quote:
46. Texas .71
They Ain't Played Nobody, PAWL!
Posted on 11/11/24 at 11:36 am to ClaimToFame
I would wager UT has one more loss left in them.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 11:36 am to TripleBarrelBluff1
quote:
I hope to Christ UT has one more loss left in them.
FYP
Posted on 11/11/24 at 11:41 am to VFL1800FPD
UGA most likely ends your season this coming weekend. 

Posted on 11/11/24 at 11:45 am to 3down10
Good Lord. Texas SOS sucks!!
I can't believe nobody has picked up on that yet.
I can't believe nobody has picked up on that yet.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 11:57 am to TripleBarrelBluff1
quote:
UGA most likely ends your season this coming weekend
Ah yes, let's go ahead and count the results of the games before they are played. Every game has definitely worked out exactly as predicted this season.
I'm sure a Bama loss to Vandy was unfathomable to you
This post was edited on 11/11/24 at 11:58 am
Posted on 11/11/24 at 11:58 am to HottyToddy7
quote:
Yeah, if UGA beats TN this week, we are getting in over TN. It really isn't that close.
Don’t know why you’re focused on Tennesssee. Texas best win is Vanderbilt.

Posted on 11/11/24 at 11:59 am to TripleBarrelBluff1
quote:
UGA most likely ends your season this coming weekend.
Even if Georgia beats Tennessee (big IF), Tennessee would only have 2 losses. I believe several 2 loss teams will get into the CFP.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 12:06 pm to Prof
quote:
Texas best win is Vanderbilt
PAWL said he still picks Texas to win the SEC. WTF.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 12:24 pm to 3down10
Love that website, great post.
I've been dropping this concept here for a little while — Indiana is a fun story, but the idea that they "deserve" to be up there is ludicrous.
And maybe they do, but there's nothing to indicate that yet. (And I'm also rooting for Curt Cignetti since he was under Saban at Alabama.)
Same with Army. I caught some prognosticators this weekend saying it was shameful that they weren't included. By this metric, their SOS is 129.
This is another glaring reason why I believe we'll eventually move to the superconference model. There's no way to guarantee schedule parity unless you have divisions, champions, wildcards, etc. like in the NFL. And you can only do that with fewer teams under consideration.
quote:
107. Indiana
I've been dropping this concept here for a little while — Indiana is a fun story, but the idea that they "deserve" to be up there is ludicrous.
And maybe they do, but there's nothing to indicate that yet. (And I'm also rooting for Curt Cignetti since he was under Saban at Alabama.)
Same with Army. I caught some prognosticators this weekend saying it was shameful that they weren't included. By this metric, their SOS is 129.
This is another glaring reason why I believe we'll eventually move to the superconference model. There's no way to guarantee schedule parity unless you have divisions, champions, wildcards, etc. like in the NFL. And you can only do that with fewer teams under consideration.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 12:33 pm to paperwasp
Indiana will simply get exposed if they make the CFP.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 12:43 pm to ClaimToFame
quote:
Indiana will simply get exposed if they make the CFP
Yeah, I just hate that we ultimately waste a spot on teams like that.
I guess that's why they did it, though, and why this is really nothing but a "participation" playoff.
Barring something major, it's most likely that the same teams will win the 12-team playoffs as did the 4-four team, as did the BCS. Just like the lower-division NCAA football playoffs where the one or two seeds usually win.
If we really wanted competition, we should've just kept the computers.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 1:16 pm to paperwasp
I haven't watched Indiana a lot, but when I did, their QB looked really good imo. I think he will get drafted. Having a QB like that can win you some games that maybe you shouldn't..
I think they have a chance against Ohio State.
There's also a lot more parity this year, so I there will be some upsets inside the playoffs, but we shall see..
Arkansas lost to a 3-7 Oklahoma State team and then beat Tennessee
LSU lost to a 4-5 USC team and then beat Ole Miss
Vanderbilt lost to a 2-7 Georgia State team and then beat Alabama
Notre Dame beat Texas A&M and then lost to Northern Illinois.
California beat Auburn and then gave FSU their only win of the year.
Miss State lost to Toledo and then hung around with Texas, Georgia & Texas A&M.
It's been a strange year.
I think they have a chance against Ohio State.
There's also a lot more parity this year, so I there will be some upsets inside the playoffs, but we shall see..
Arkansas lost to a 3-7 Oklahoma State team and then beat Tennessee
LSU lost to a 4-5 USC team and then beat Ole Miss
Vanderbilt lost to a 2-7 Georgia State team and then beat Alabama
Notre Dame beat Texas A&M and then lost to Northern Illinois.
California beat Auburn and then gave FSU their only win of the year.

Miss State lost to Toledo and then hung around with Texas, Georgia & Texas A&M.
It's been a strange year.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 1:20 pm to HottyToddy7
quote:
24. Ole Miss 1.10
45. Tennessee .72
quote:
Yeah, if UGA beats TN this week, we are getting in over TN. It really isn't that close.
Tennessee's SoS jumps up quite a bit in playing Georgia this weekend. Ole Miss' will stay the same with a bye.
Ole Miss follows that up with Florida and Mississippi State and Tennessee plays UTEP and Vandy. Who would have thought we would see the day when Vandy on your schedule brings up your SoS, and Florida brings yours down?
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