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re: "Star ratings don't matter!" (Except they do...)
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:58 am to Violent Hip Swivel
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:58 am to Violent Hip Swivel
quote:
Good data. Imo offensive linemen are the easiest to predict to the pros. Somebody like Latham and Amarius Mims have been first round picks since the frigging 11th grade. They're just too big and too purtty. It's been that way at Alabama for a while now and been that way at Georgia for the last 4 or 5 years.
It's not just automatic. You aren't going in the first round because of your high school press clippings.
At one time, Alabama’s five-star recruits were picked in the first round at a rate of 48.3 percent, while five-star recruits that go to any other school were selected at a 17 percent clip. That's more than double the NFL 1st round success of 5 stars.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:06 am to bamameister
quote:
It's not just automatic. You aren't going in the first round because of your high school press clippings.
At one time, Alabama’s five-star recruits were picked in the first round at a rate of 48.3 percent, while five-star recruits that go to any other school were selected at a 17 percent clip. That's more than double the NFL 1st round success of 5 stars.
An offensive lineman who's one of the top 10 overall players in his recruiting class pretty much is automatic. It's not press clippings. It's a body type and athletic skill set (basically quick feet). Amarius Mims had a 7 foot wingspan and ran like a tight end in the 11th grade.
This post was edited on 4/29/24 at 10:08 am
Posted on 4/29/24 at 3:58 pm to bamameister
quote:
At one time, Alabama’s five-star recruits were picked in the first round at a rate of 48.3 percent, while five-star recruits that go to any other school were selected at a 17 percent clip. That's more than double the NFL 1st round success of 5 stars.
I think this is the take away. You'll have a better chance if you're starting with 5 stars but they still have to be developed. Look at that all time great class at TAM for an example.
Posted on 4/30/24 at 6:16 am to bamameister
quote:quote:
Good data. Imo offensive linemen are the easiest to predict to the pros. Somebody like Latham and Amarius Mims have been first round picks since the frigging 11th grade. They're just too big and too purtty. It's been that way at Alabama for a while now and been that way at Georgia for the last 4 or 5 years.
It's not just automatic. You aren't going in the first round because of your high school press clippings.
Oh, it makes a pretty big difference. Not an offensive lineman, and not first round pick, but:
LSU had 3 defensive linemen drafted. 2 were productive but weren't 5 stars; Mehki Wingo was the best and a 3 star in high school. He went in the 6th rd. Jordan Jefferson was solid, but mostly just a rotational guy, also a 3 star. He was bigger, and went in the 4th.
Maason Smith had a good freshman year, missed a season with injury, and played very underwhelming when he came back. By far the least effective of the three. He was a 5 star, and went in the 2nd rd.
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