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re: "Star ratings don't matter!" (Except they do...)

Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:58 am to
Posted by bamameister
Right here, right now
Member since May 2016
14529 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:58 am to
quote:

Good data. Imo offensive linemen are the easiest to predict to the pros. Somebody like Latham and Amarius Mims have been first round picks since the frigging 11th grade. They're just too big and too purtty. It's been that way at Alabama for a while now and been that way at Georgia for the last 4 or 5 years.



It's not just automatic. You aren't going in the first round because of your high school press clippings.

At one time, Alabama’s five-star recruits were picked in the first round at a rate of 48.3 percent, while five-star recruits that go to any other school were selected at a 17 percent clip. That's more than double the NFL 1st round success of 5 stars.
Posted by Violent Hip Swivel
Member since Aug 2023
2702 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:06 am to
quote:

It's not just automatic. You aren't going in the first round because of your high school press clippings.

At one time, Alabama’s five-star recruits were picked in the first round at a rate of 48.3 percent, while five-star recruits that go to any other school were selected at a 17 percent clip. That's more than double the NFL 1st round success of 5 stars.



An offensive lineman who's one of the top 10 overall players in his recruiting class pretty much is automatic. It's not press clippings. It's a body type and athletic skill set (basically quick feet). Amarius Mims had a 7 foot wingspan and ran like a tight end in the 11th grade.
This post was edited on 4/29/24 at 10:08 am
Posted by Tideroller
Lower Alabama
Member since Jan 2022
2388 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 3:58 pm to
quote:

At one time, Alabama’s five-star recruits were picked in the first round at a rate of 48.3 percent, while five-star recruits that go to any other school were selected at a 17 percent clip. That's more than double the NFL 1st round success of 5 stars.


I think this is the take away. You'll have a better chance if you're starting with 5 stars but they still have to be developed. Look at that all time great class at TAM for an example.
Posted by Scoob
Near Exxon
Member since Jun 2009
20509 posts
Posted on 4/30/24 at 6:16 am to
quote:

quote:

Good data. Imo offensive linemen are the easiest to predict to the pros. Somebody like Latham and Amarius Mims have been first round picks since the frigging 11th grade. They're just too big and too purtty. It's been that way at Alabama for a while now and been that way at Georgia for the last 4 or 5 years.



It's not just automatic. You aren't going in the first round because of your high school press clippings.


Oh, it makes a pretty big difference. Not an offensive lineman, and not first round pick, but:

LSU had 3 defensive linemen drafted. 2 were productive but weren't 5 stars; Mehki Wingo was the best and a 3 star in high school. He went in the 6th rd. Jordan Jefferson was solid, but mostly just a rotational guy, also a 3 star. He was bigger, and went in the 4th.
Maason Smith had a good freshman year, missed a season with injury, and played very underwhelming when he came back. By far the least effective of the three. He was a 5 star, and went in the 2nd rd.
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