re: BIG 10 minus Ohio St in the Playoff

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ESPN’s matchup predictor has MI at 56%.

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Which is driven by FPI that really overvalues Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State.

Penn State is 3 in FPI.

FPI is heavily influenced by game control. Those three teams have dominated the rest of the conference by so much while playing minimal quality OOC games that they get overvalued. The only quality OOC games for the 3 of them are OSU-ND and PSU-WVU.

Most computer models over value Michigan just like they did Oregon for dominating weak opponents.