*OFFICIAL 2023-24 ARKANSAS RAZORBACK FOOTBALL SEASON THREAD*

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ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (2-5, 0-4)

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Midseason grade: F

On a five-game losing skid, execution in the fourth quarter has been the issue along with inconsistent offensive line play and production at various skill spots. Four of five losses came by a single possession, the other in the form of a second-half letdown against Texas A&M at AT&T Stadium in September. Arkansas wasted multi-year starter K.J. Jefferson's senior season at quarterback and likely won't go bowling.

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LOSER: ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS

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Every loss for Arkansas this season has been excruciating — six straight losses, six straight games decided by a possession or less — but Saturday’s 7-3 home defeat against Mississippi State went beyond disappointing for the Razorback fan base. It was infuriating. Not only did Arkansas lose yet another winnable game, it looked lifeless in the process. Here’s what the Razorbacks’ second-half drive chart looked like while down 7-3:

Fumble.

Punt from Mississippi State’s 38-yard line.

Interception.

Three-and-out.

Four-and-out.

Downs.

Arkansas had its chances, but it couldn’t manufacture a single touchdown against a Bulldogs defense that ranks 90th nationally in yards allowed per play. Now it’s six one-possession losses and counting in Fayetteville. Don’t be shocked if the heat starts to turn up here on Sam Pittman soon.

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With .500 or better record: 75% of a $22.1 million buyout = $16,575,000
With a below-.500 record: 50% of a $22.1 = $11,050,000

Arkansas can fire Sam Pittman tomorrow and owe that first figure. But if they wait around and hope he loses the rest of the games this year, they’ll save roughly five million bucks. So don’t expect Pittman out tomorrow.

In fact, winning games could be to his disadvantage. If Arkansas decides this week they’re ready to move on from Pittman regardless of how the year ends, they just have to wait for him to win one more game, thus guaranteeing the .500 record since he’d have 19 wins to 16 losses with just three games left. If he does that, the buyout is locked in. If he keeps losing and ends with a 2-10 season, that lower buyout figure is back on the table.

Furthermore, if he loses his next three, Arkansas can fire him at the $11 million figure before he has a chance to win the last game and get it back to the $16 million number. There’s a lot of chess to be played with this one if the Hogs do decide to move on from Pittman.

If Arkansas loses to Florida and Auburn in their next two games, Pittman could be coaching with roughly $5 million on the line in one single game vs. FIU in the Razorbacks’ penultimate regular season game. Lose all three and he’ll be fired for certain after the FIU game. If he wins any of them, that’s $5 million extra he’s owed.

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Arkansas Razorbacks
Coach: Sam Pittman

Buyout: $11-16 million

Skinny: Heralded for a nine-win campaign in his second season in 2021, Arkansas has slipped this year, dropping to 2-6 after an ugly 7-3 loss to Mississippi State on Oct. 21. That led to Pittman firing offensive coordinator Dan Enos eight games into a three-year contract (the school owes him nearly $3 million in a buyout). Would Arkansas then spend more money to get rid of Pittman and start a coaching search? Some don’t think it happens. Also, Pittman’s buyout is an interesting situation. Based on language in his contract, the buyout is contingent on his overall record since the 2021 season. If he’s below .500, the school owes him 50% of remaining pay. If he’s above or at .500, the school owes him 75% of the pay. That’s a $5 million difference. Since 2021, Pittman is 18-16.

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