re: ESPN: Chance to Make the College Football Playoff

quote:

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How in the hell do we have a 9% chance of making the playoffs?

Can someone explain this path? Not a chance. 0% chance of UT being in the playoffs.

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See my two posts.

This doesn't account for perceptions of X, it merely lays out a possible path for Tennessee to finish in the top 4 (based on how often Tennessee wins their final game, how often teams lose above them, and statistically what is necessary for those teams to fall far enough for Tennessee to get in).

9% seems high, even given that specific course though, as it would require Tenn to gain 4 spots through other teams losing a combination of their last regular season games AND their championship games.

There's not some guy sitting at a computer going, "Well, we gotta add the 'lost to South Carolina' variable." All it looks at are current ranking and games remaining to be played by those ahead.

In 9% of the scenarios run enough of those teams lost by enough (or enough games) to drop below Tennessee for them to reach #4 or better. Probably something like 900 out of 10,000 scenarios or the like.