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History of the CFB Playoff Selections
Posted on 10/17/22 at 12:51 pm
Posted on 10/17/22 at 12:51 pm
I make this thread annually and post on the SECR but it's probably too early to put it over there since we haven't even had the first rankings out yet. I'm a bit slow at work so figured I'd go ahead and put on here for some discussion. Here is the top 4, number 5, and Notre Dame every year of the playoffs.
2014
1) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss.
2) Oregon 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Arizona.
3) FSU 13-0. Conf champion.
4) Ohio State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to VT
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5) Baylor 11-1. Co-champ. Loss to WVU
ND: Nonfactor at 8-5
2015
1) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss
3) Michigan State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Nebraska.
4) Oklahoma 11-1. Conf champion. Los to Texas.
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5) Iowa 12-1. Non-champ. Loss to MSU in title game
ND: 10-2, losses to Clemson and Stanford. 8th in playoff rankings
2016
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2)Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt
3) Ohio State 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Penn State.
4) Washington 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to USC.
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5) Penn State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt and Michigan
ND: Non factor
2017
1) Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Syracuse.
2) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Iowa State.
3) UGA 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Auburn.
4) Alabama 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Auburn.
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5) Ohio State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Oklahoma and Iowa
ND: 10-3, losses to UGA, Miami, Stanford. 14th in playoff rankings
2018
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
3) Notre Dame 12-0.
4) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Texas.
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5) UGA 11-2. Non-champ. Loss to LSU and Alabama in title game
2019
1) LSU 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Ohio State 13-0. Conf champion.
3) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
4) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Kansas St.
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5) UGA 11-2. Non-champ. Loss to South Carolina and LSU in title game
ND: 10-2, losses to UGA and Michigan. 15th in playoff rankings
2020
1) Alabama 11-0. Conf champion.
2) Clemson 10-1. Conf champion. Loss to ND
3) Ohio State 6-0. Conf champion.
4) Notre Dame 10-1. Non-conf champion. Loss to clemson in title game
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5) Texas A&M 8-1. Non-champ. Loss to alabama
2021
1) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to aTm
2) Michigan 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Michigan St.
3) UGA 12-1. Loss to Alabama in CCG.
4) Cincinnati 13-0. Conf champion (G5).
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5) Notre Dame 11-1. Loss to Cincinnati.
With 5 Power Conferences and 4 playoff spots, obviously a conference is going to get left out each year. Here are those cases:
2014: Big 12 where Baylor and TCU were co-champions with 11-1 records. No title game.
2015: Pac 12 champ Stanford. 11-2 with losses to Northwestern and Oregon
2016: Big 12 champ Oklahoma. 10-2 with losses to Houston and Ohio State. No title game.
2017: Big 10 champ Ohio State. 11-2 with losses to Oklahoma and Iowa. Also the Pac12 champ USC. 11-2 with losses to Washington State and Notre Dame
2018: Big 10 champ Ohio State. 12-1 with loss to Purdue. Also Pac12 champ Washington. 10-3 with losses to Auburn, Oregon, and Cal.
2019: Pac 12 champ oregon. 11-2 with losses to Auburn and Ariz. State.
2020: Big 12 champ oklahoma. 8-2 with losses to kansas state and iowa state. Also the Pac 12 champ Oregon finishing at 25th in the rankings. 4-2 with losses to oregon state and cal.
2021: Big 12 Champ Baylor. 11-2 with losses to Ok.St. and TCU. Also Pac 12 Champ Utah, 10-3 with losses to BYU, San Diego st, and Oregon STate. Also ACC champ Pittsburgh, 11-2 with losses to Western Michigan and Miami.
This is a lot of data to go on but presents us with a pretty clear picture of how the committee operates:
-First, you almost surely need to win your conference. Of 32 playoff teams, only 4 of them (12%) made it without winning their conference (2016 Ohio State, 2017 alabama, 2020 notre dame, 2021 UGA).
-As a follow up to the point above, let’s look at why those 4 non-champs made it. ’16 OSU made it over #5 Penn State because they only had 1 loss compared to 2 for PSU. Ditto for ’17 bama who made it over #5 OSU, also because OSU had 2 losses compared to just 1 for bama. 2020 is the outlier here in that they had the same record as team #5, but they also had a win over a top 4 team (splitting the season series with them), played for their conference title while #5 didn't win their division, and the #5 team had already lost to who they'd be paired with in the first round. 2021 UGA and 2021 ND had somewhat similar resumes in that both were non-champions that lost to a team in the playoffs, but UGA had one more victory and played in a CCG unlike ND.
-No team thus far has made the playoffs with more than 1 loss.
-Notre Dame, despite being a media darling or is said to have special privileges, has only made the playoffs twice and they went undefeated or 1-loss to do so. Last year they finished with only 1 loss and still were left out.
-Never in the history of the playoffs has a team that did not win their conference made the playoffs over a team that did win their conference with an equal or better record. I emphasize this last point because many SEC fans still think that alabama has some kind of preferential treatment, or that the SEC should expect to get in 2 years regularly since it happened last year.
The bottom line on making the playoffs is 1)Win your conference 2) If you don't win your conference, you need other P5 champions to have multiple losses. Simple as that.
2014
1) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss.
2) Oregon 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Arizona.
3) FSU 13-0. Conf champion.
4) Ohio State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to VT
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5) Baylor 11-1. Co-champ. Loss to WVU
ND: Nonfactor at 8-5
2015
1) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss
3) Michigan State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Nebraska.
4) Oklahoma 11-1. Conf champion. Los to Texas.
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5) Iowa 12-1. Non-champ. Loss to MSU in title game
ND: 10-2, losses to Clemson and Stanford. 8th in playoff rankings
2016
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2)Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt
3) Ohio State 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Penn State.
4) Washington 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to USC.
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5) Penn State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt and Michigan
ND: Non factor
2017
1) Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Syracuse.
2) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Iowa State.
3) UGA 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Auburn.
4) Alabama 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Auburn.
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5) Ohio State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Oklahoma and Iowa
ND: 10-3, losses to UGA, Miami, Stanford. 14th in playoff rankings
2018
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
3) Notre Dame 12-0.
4) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Texas.
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5) UGA 11-2. Non-champ. Loss to LSU and Alabama in title game
2019
1) LSU 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Ohio State 13-0. Conf champion.
3) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
4) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Kansas St.
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5) UGA 11-2. Non-champ. Loss to South Carolina and LSU in title game
ND: 10-2, losses to UGA and Michigan. 15th in playoff rankings
2020
1) Alabama 11-0. Conf champion.
2) Clemson 10-1. Conf champion. Loss to ND
3) Ohio State 6-0. Conf champion.
4) Notre Dame 10-1. Non-conf champion. Loss to clemson in title game
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5) Texas A&M 8-1. Non-champ. Loss to alabama
2021
1) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to aTm
2) Michigan 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Michigan St.
3) UGA 12-1. Loss to Alabama in CCG.
4) Cincinnati 13-0. Conf champion (G5).
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5) Notre Dame 11-1. Loss to Cincinnati.
With 5 Power Conferences and 4 playoff spots, obviously a conference is going to get left out each year. Here are those cases:
2014: Big 12 where Baylor and TCU were co-champions with 11-1 records. No title game.
2015: Pac 12 champ Stanford. 11-2 with losses to Northwestern and Oregon
2016: Big 12 champ Oklahoma. 10-2 with losses to Houston and Ohio State. No title game.
2017: Big 10 champ Ohio State. 11-2 with losses to Oklahoma and Iowa. Also the Pac12 champ USC. 11-2 with losses to Washington State and Notre Dame
2018: Big 10 champ Ohio State. 12-1 with loss to Purdue. Also Pac12 champ Washington. 10-3 with losses to Auburn, Oregon, and Cal.
2019: Pac 12 champ oregon. 11-2 with losses to Auburn and Ariz. State.
2020: Big 12 champ oklahoma. 8-2 with losses to kansas state and iowa state. Also the Pac 12 champ Oregon finishing at 25th in the rankings. 4-2 with losses to oregon state and cal.
2021: Big 12 Champ Baylor. 11-2 with losses to Ok.St. and TCU. Also Pac 12 Champ Utah, 10-3 with losses to BYU, San Diego st, and Oregon STate. Also ACC champ Pittsburgh, 11-2 with losses to Western Michigan and Miami.
This is a lot of data to go on but presents us with a pretty clear picture of how the committee operates:
-First, you almost surely need to win your conference. Of 32 playoff teams, only 4 of them (12%) made it without winning their conference (2016 Ohio State, 2017 alabama, 2020 notre dame, 2021 UGA).
-As a follow up to the point above, let’s look at why those 4 non-champs made it. ’16 OSU made it over #5 Penn State because they only had 1 loss compared to 2 for PSU. Ditto for ’17 bama who made it over #5 OSU, also because OSU had 2 losses compared to just 1 for bama. 2020 is the outlier here in that they had the same record as team #5, but they also had a win over a top 4 team (splitting the season series with them), played for their conference title while #5 didn't win their division, and the #5 team had already lost to who they'd be paired with in the first round. 2021 UGA and 2021 ND had somewhat similar resumes in that both were non-champions that lost to a team in the playoffs, but UGA had one more victory and played in a CCG unlike ND.
-No team thus far has made the playoffs with more than 1 loss.
-Notre Dame, despite being a media darling or is said to have special privileges, has only made the playoffs twice and they went undefeated or 1-loss to do so. Last year they finished with only 1 loss and still were left out.
-Never in the history of the playoffs has a team that did not win their conference made the playoffs over a team that did win their conference with an equal or better record. I emphasize this last point because many SEC fans still think that alabama has some kind of preferential treatment, or that the SEC should expect to get in 2 years regularly since it happened last year.
The bottom line on making the playoffs is 1)Win your conference 2) If you don't win your conference, you need other P5 champions to have multiple losses. Simple as that.
This post was edited on 10/17/22 at 1:04 pm
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:27 am to WG_Dawg
Every week the picture will clear up a bit and that was certainly the case this weekend.
UGA, Ohio STate, Michigan, TCU, Oregon, USC, and UCLA are all in full control of their own destiny in the playoffs. Win out, and you're in. Simple as that. One of OSu/UM will eliminate the other one, and the Pac 12 will sort itself out between those 3 teams. USC and UCLA have to play each other so the winner should come out of that with 1-loss and play in the CCG against a 1-loss oregon. Ole Miss is a team that needs help in order to win their division, so if they were to win out and win the SEC as a 1-loss team they'd be in but they are not in full control.
clemson is a tough one in that everyoen can see that they aren't very good, but if they win out they're a 1-loss P5 champ and the committee has shown that that's a sweet spot where you're looking good. Let's also consider UNC who is also sitting at 1 loss and would end up having to play clemson in the ACCCG. You have to think whoever comes out of the ACC, as long as it's with 1 loss, is in good shape.
LSu is in the same spot Auburn 2017 was but with a much lesser resume. No 2 loss team has ever made the playoffs as of now and LSu has 2 losses. In 2017 had AU beaten us in the SECCG they would have been a mortal lock, but it'd be because they beat #1 UGA, #1 alabama, and #whatever UGA in about a month span. Their 2 losses were @Clemson early and @LSu by a comnbined 12 points. This LSu team lost in Louisiana to a pitiful FSU and got absolutely oblitereated at home by Tennessee. An SEC championship would include wins over ole miss, alabama, and UGA, but does that cancel out the losses?
Tennessee will still be ranked high but honestly they're near he bottom of any tiered list because they control nothing. They have a loss and will not win their division, and by extension will obviously not be a p5 conference champion. So they are out unless they get a lot of help.
Then at the very bottom of the list you have teams with 2 losses that for all practical purposes are done. This would be alabama, utah, penn state, NC State, etc.
UGA, Ohio STate, Michigan, TCU, Oregon, USC, and UCLA are all in full control of their own destiny in the playoffs. Win out, and you're in. Simple as that. One of OSu/UM will eliminate the other one, and the Pac 12 will sort itself out between those 3 teams. USC and UCLA have to play each other so the winner should come out of that with 1-loss and play in the CCG against a 1-loss oregon. Ole Miss is a team that needs help in order to win their division, so if they were to win out and win the SEC as a 1-loss team they'd be in but they are not in full control.
clemson is a tough one in that everyoen can see that they aren't very good, but if they win out they're a 1-loss P5 champ and the committee has shown that that's a sweet spot where you're looking good. Let's also consider UNC who is also sitting at 1 loss and would end up having to play clemson in the ACCCG. You have to think whoever comes out of the ACC, as long as it's with 1 loss, is in good shape.
LSu is in the same spot Auburn 2017 was but with a much lesser resume. No 2 loss team has ever made the playoffs as of now and LSu has 2 losses. In 2017 had AU beaten us in the SECCG they would have been a mortal lock, but it'd be because they beat #1 UGA, #1 alabama, and #whatever UGA in about a month span. Their 2 losses were @Clemson early and @LSu by a comnbined 12 points. This LSu team lost in Louisiana to a pitiful FSU and got absolutely oblitereated at home by Tennessee. An SEC championship would include wins over ole miss, alabama, and UGA, but does that cancel out the losses?
Tennessee will still be ranked high but honestly they're near he bottom of any tiered list because they control nothing. They have a loss and will not win their division, and by extension will obviously not be a p5 conference champion. So they are out unless they get a lot of help.
Then at the very bottom of the list you have teams with 2 losses that for all practical purposes are done. This would be alabama, utah, penn state, NC State, etc.
This post was edited on 11/9/22 at 7:10 am
Posted on 11/21/22 at 10:06 am to WG_Dawg
Bump after this weekend's games.
Tier 1A: Full, complete control of destiny. If you win the next 2 games you are 100% in the playoffs: UGA, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, USC
Tier 1B: Pretty much in the playoffs but there's a teeny chance maybe not: LSU. If chalk fully wins out other than the SECCG, you'd have OSU/TCU/USC as locks and a 2-loss SEC champ and possibly a 1-loss ACC champ (to go along wiht a 1-loss non-champ UGA) battling for the 4th spot. In my personal opinion? It'd have to be LSU, I don't see how you deny the SEC champ in that case. I'm just pointing out that based on precedent and what we've seen in the past, it's not a slam dunk take it to the bank guarantee. We have seen situations where a 2-loss P5 champ has been left out in the past (in favor of a team they beat).
"Needs some help" tier: Clemson, UGA if losing SECCG. Clemson as a 1-loss P5 champ would ordinarly be a lock. But if chalk holds firm and you have UGA, OSU, TCU, and USC all as 0/1 loss P5 champs, who gets left out in place of clemson? Nobody. With UGA, you can make a strong argument they're already in anyway, but never has a CCG loser made the playoffs over a P5 champ wiht a similar record. So while it's certainly not impossible, and every talking head on TV says it's a lock, it would still be trend setting.
Pretty much done: OSU/UM loser. It would take a heaping helping of chaos for this team to havee a shot. I'd stop short of saying it's impossible, but it's extraordinarily unlikely.
Last week at this time we had 9 teams that had a legitimate, actual shot at the playoffs. This week we have 7. UNC lost their chance at being a 1-loss P5 champ and UT secured their 2nd loss and will join alabama as 2-loss teams that didn't win their division.
Tier 1A: Full, complete control of destiny. If you win the next 2 games you are 100% in the playoffs: UGA, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, USC
Tier 1B: Pretty much in the playoffs but there's a teeny chance maybe not: LSU. If chalk fully wins out other than the SECCG, you'd have OSU/TCU/USC as locks and a 2-loss SEC champ and possibly a 1-loss ACC champ (to go along wiht a 1-loss non-champ UGA) battling for the 4th spot. In my personal opinion? It'd have to be LSU, I don't see how you deny the SEC champ in that case. I'm just pointing out that based on precedent and what we've seen in the past, it's not a slam dunk take it to the bank guarantee. We have seen situations where a 2-loss P5 champ has been left out in the past (in favor of a team they beat).
"Needs some help" tier: Clemson, UGA if losing SECCG. Clemson as a 1-loss P5 champ would ordinarly be a lock. But if chalk holds firm and you have UGA, OSU, TCU, and USC all as 0/1 loss P5 champs, who gets left out in place of clemson? Nobody. With UGA, you can make a strong argument they're already in anyway, but never has a CCG loser made the playoffs over a P5 champ wiht a similar record. So while it's certainly not impossible, and every talking head on TV says it's a lock, it would still be trend setting.
Pretty much done: OSU/UM loser. It would take a heaping helping of chaos for this team to havee a shot. I'd stop short of saying it's impossible, but it's extraordinarily unlikely.
Last week at this time we had 9 teams that had a legitimate, actual shot at the playoffs. This week we have 7. UNC lost their chance at being a 1-loss P5 champ and UT secured their 2nd loss and will join alabama as 2-loss teams that didn't win their division.
Posted on 11/23/22 at 8:39 am to WG_Dawg
Good information and summary, WG.
Much appreciated.
Much appreciated.
Posted on 11/23/22 at 8:42 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
"Needs some help" tier: Clemson, UGA if losing SECCG.
Stop.
Dawgs are in regardless.
Posted on 11/23/22 at 8:54 am to SteelerBravesDawg
quote:
Dawgs are in regardless.
I never claimed they'd be out. What I've said, repeatedly on the topic, is pointing out the decisions the committee has actually made in the past. Precedent. Facts. That's a pretty good thing to go on I'd say right?
if we lose the SECCG and still make it, it would literally be the first time this situaiton has ever happened if we assume there is a P5 champ with 1 loss. It's never been done. So while sure, it's definitely possible and maybe even probable, but I'm not going to go around shouting from the rooftops that it's definite considering it's never happened before.
each new year brings new data and new things to look at. When the day inevitably comes that the committee does something for hte first time, I'll then adjust my own thoughts and predictions accordingly. But for now all we have to go in is waht they've actaully done, although most message baord posters only use emotions and feelings on the topic
This post was edited on 11/23/22 at 8:59 am
Posted on 11/23/22 at 9:14 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
if we lose the SECCG and still make it, it would literally be the first time this situaiton has ever happened if we assume there is a P5 champ with 1 loss. It's never been done. So while sure, it's definitely possible and maybe even probable, but I'm not going to go around shouting from the rooftops that it's definite considering it's never happened before.
But a 2 loss team, conference champion or not, has never made the playoffs either. So LSU or UGA would be the first in one of those categories.
I agree, I don’t think UGA is in regardless right now though
Posted on 11/23/22 at 9:24 am to IT_Dawg
The big difference to me is the head to head on neutral field that would have just happened.
When somebody beats you that is saying they are they better team. It’s called winning. Don’t like it..don’t lose.
The question would be more whether UGA should get in over TCU, USC, OSU and Clemson if those teams win out.
They would all have equal wins to UGA and be conf champs.
When somebody beats you that is saying they are they better team. It’s called winning. Don’t like it..don’t lose.
The question would be more whether UGA should get in over TCU, USC, OSU and Clemson if those teams win out.
They would all have equal wins to UGA and be conf champs.
Posted on 11/23/22 at 9:27 am to IT_Dawg
quote:
But a 2 loss team, conference champion or not, has never made the playoffs either.
True. Although there is what I guess you could say "half precedent" on that in 2017. AU with 2 losses was a stone cold mortal lock to make it had they beat us. However, in this hypothetical they woudl have had a much better resume than 2022 LSU, both regarding wins and losses.
And if we're being honest here, there's not a guarantee LSu makes it either. If you have a 13-0 OSU, 13-0 TCU, 12-1 USC, and 12-1 Clemson, it's possible LSU would be left out. Improbable, unlikely, slim chance. All of hte above. But it is POSSIBLE.
Posted on 11/23/22 at 9:30 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
And if we're being honest here, there's not a guarantee LSu makes it either. If you have a 13-0 OSU, 13-0 TCU, 12-1 USC, and 12-1 Clemson, it's possible LSU would be left out. Improbable, unlikely, slim chance. All of hte above. But it is POSSIBLE.
True. BELIEVE the fact they currently have 2 loss LSU above Clemson is their hedge on that matter.
Posted on 11/23/22 at 9:36 am to RealDawg
Yeah true.
Typically things have worked themselves out nice and neat by final selection day so none of this may even matter. Watch it be all chalk and 13-0 UGA, 13-0 OSU, 13-0 TCU, and 12-1 USC make the playoff and the last 3 weeks of grumbling and complaining all be for naught ha.
Typically things have worked themselves out nice and neat by final selection day so none of this may even matter. Watch it be all chalk and 13-0 UGA, 13-0 OSU, 13-0 TCU, and 12-1 USC make the playoff and the last 3 weeks of grumbling and complaining all be for naught ha.
Posted on 11/23/22 at 10:06 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
Typically things have worked themselves out nice and neat by final selection day so none of this may even matter.
Which is what made college football so great. This is all ruined with 12 and 16 team playoffs coming. Might make it even worse, as teams 13-16 then 17-20 will be bitching about they should be in….will be stupid. Just like you have 68 teams making basketball tourney now and you still have bubble teams bitching they didn’t make it
This post was edited on 11/23/22 at 10:14 am
Posted on 11/23/22 at 10:14 am to IT_Dawg
quote:
This is all ruined with 12 and 16 team playoffs coming
ugh don't get me started. I despise this and not to be too hyperbolic but I think it's just another in a recent string of events that's ruining the greatest sport. It's pathetic that we're doing this all in the name of money.
Posted on 11/23/22 at 10:49 am to IT_Dawg
quote:
I don’t think UGA is in regardless right now though
We are a lock
Posted on 11/23/22 at 11:03 am to djsdawg
quote:
We are a lock
If we win out. :) Agree to disagree otherwise. Great that it makes the OSU/Mich games, two USC games, two TCU games and the SECCG relevant.
This is the playoffs. Lose and you are out.
Posted on 11/23/22 at 11:08 am to RealDawg
11-2 lsu isn’t jumping 12-1 uga unless they smash us like SC smashed vols, so I guess we aren’t a lock.
Posted on 11/23/22 at 11:18 am to djsdawg
quote:
11-2 lsu isn’t jumping 12-1 uga unless they smash us like SC smashed vols, so I guess we aren’t a lock.
It's not just LSU, it's the other 1-loss P5 winners that's a problem. Let's say you have 13-0 USC, 13-0 TCU, and a 12-1 Pac12 Champ USC that are in. For the 4th spot you've now got:
11-2 SEC Champion LSU (that just beat UGA)
12-1 ACC Champion clemson
12-1 non-champion UGA
11-1 non-champion michigan
Michigan would be hte least involved and we can dismiss them pretty easily. But you're still talking about two P5 champions, one of which with the same record as us. Again, it's entireloy possible we make it based on how strong we've been in games 1 through 12, but it would be the first time in playoff history this has happened so it's not easy to go ahead and call it a sure thing.
Posted on 11/23/22 at 11:33 am to WG_Dawg
The Dawgs are in regardless.
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