re: 2023 Recruiting

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Plenty of Saban assistants / "developers" have gone on to be not great at all (even more so than a lack of talent would suggest). The one that has succeeded, yes, "elite talent" is the difference.

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Actually, more modern data analysis shows that Alabama is in fact the perfect example that it's NOT just "elite talent".

Dave Bartoo has basically discovered that every time that Saban/Bama hasn't won or competed for the national title, they have had a poorly graded OC, DC, or both (by Bartoo's coaching metrics). And "graded" means their actual ability to scheme/perform actual coaching/play calling duties.

This past season for them is yet another example of this as both O'Brien and Golding were KNOWN to be poorly graded hires by Saban. And what happened? Despite the fact that they actually have a Heisman winning QB (the most important piece on the field), they actually "under performed". How does Alabama with a Heisman QB lose to LSU with a first year HC and a worse QB?

Turns out that Saban caught on, and both O'Brien and Golding are being replaced. Their talent level has been pretty damn consistent during his time there; but his assistants and coordinators have not. Sometimes, he makes great hires and they win everything. Other times, he whiffs and they end up winning 10+ due to talent, but don't compete for the title.

If you look at Tulane beating USC or Oregon State beating Oregon, actual coaching still matters and always will matter. As I said before, the confirmation bias is that the teams with the most talent also generally have better coaches and coordinators than everyone else too. But you can learn a lot from a team like Alabama which consistently has elite talent, but the coaching isn't always elite. When their coaching is "down", it pretty much entirely correlates with their seasons wherein they aren't competing or playing for the title.