re: #tAuburnBasketball Thread

I posted in the OP some KenPom stats as of 11/26, some interesting notes/comments

quote:

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TO% (#88)

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We fell from ~25-30 to #88 after the Arizona game (23.7% TO).

The 3 players driving the high TO% are Doughty/McCormick + Okeke (5TO v USA). Would imagine that all 3 players are likely to see improved TO% as SD/JM adjust to YR1 and if Okeke's 5TO game is an outlier


2017 vs 2018 TO Rate for key players

Harper: 16.8 -> 16.3
Brown: 10.7 -> 12.8
McLemore: 15.0 -> 7.0
Dunbar: 16.4 -> 14.8
Spencer: 22.6 -> 5.6

quote:

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FT 67.1% ('17: 77.4%)

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The drop in FT% is the result of a dramatic change in FTA distribution from our higher FT% shooting backcourt to poorer FT% front court



'17->'18 FTA Distribution By Position

PG: 26.7% -> 17.1%
SG: 16.2% -> 21.3%
SF: 25.0% -> 10.8%
PF: 18.3% -> 18.8%
C : 13.8% -> 32.1%

The change in distribution is likely due to a few factors

- Losing Mustapha Heron from back court (#256 Nat'l FTRate)
- Jared Harper's massive 66% dropoff in FT Rate (Was #27 Nat'l '17-18)
- Adding FT Rate Machine Austin Wiley to Post (Would be KenPom FTRate top ~10 in '17)


'17->'18 FT% By Position (GC's Assumptions for Pos Breakdown)

PG: 81.0% -> 85.7%
SG: 76.8% -> 77.1%
SF: 78.2% -> 87.8%
PF: 77.6% -> 68.6%
C : 71.8% -> 46.4%


The FT% Changes are due to a few factors

- PG: Harper improvement / Loss of DavMitchell PG Minutes (~68%)
- SG: Loss of DavMitchell (~66%) SG Minutes
- SF: Doughty 100% FT offsets the 67.4% from others

- PF: Okeke's improved FT% not enough to offset Spencer/McLemore's PF minutes

- C: Addition of 47% Wiley + regression of Spencer/McLemore



'17 -> '18 FT % Comparison for Key Players

Harper: 82.2% -> 85.7%
Brown: 77.5% -> 76.5%
Okeke: 67.3% -> 75.0%
McLemore: 72.9% -> 42.9%
Wiley: 49.1% ('16) -> 47.1%
Doughty: 76.6% ('16VCU) -> 100% (6/6)
Spencer: 72.1% -> 50%

quote:

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FT Attempt per FG Attempt #310 ('17: #36)

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The causes of the drastically reduced FT Rate appear to be the symptom of personnel losses and offensive playing style

Personnel Losses

The of Mustapha Heron + DeSean Murray cannot be understated. Heron/Murray were top 3 in FT Rate (FT Att/FG Att) for Auburn and ranked in the top 250 nationally . As mentioned above, this loss can be seen in the shifting FT Distribution from the backcourt to the front court.


Changing Playing Style

Auburn has had a significantly increased number of 3FGA this season, as much viewers may have noticed. This will result in significantly lower FT Rates as most fouls occur during drives and/or post play

As a quick estimate I estimated the % of 2FG Attempts using the following ( [FTA/2 + 2FGA] / [FTA/2 + 2FGA + 3FGA]). It won't account for And-1s + Fouls on 3FG, but AU rarely makes the shot for And-1s + 3FG fouls are rare/small% of FTA


2017: 2FG% ~63.9% 3FG% ~36.1%
2018: 2FG% ~53.6% 3FG% ~46.4%



This changing shot selection is a result of both the Heron/Murray losses (72.8% / 81.7% 2FGA respectively) as well as the increased 3FGA frequency of Brown / Harper

Brown: 40.7% -> 32% 2FGA Distribution
Harper: 57.9% -> 46.7% 2FGA Distribution

Never too early! NET will continue to improve as the season progresses. The takeaway from it for me is that the conference is down this year. Barring a major upset, we may not have a marquee win to juice the conference numbers.

That link has only 5 SEC teams.
1 Auburn
2 Tennessee
7 State
9 Florida
11 Kentucky

I mean it’s early and that’s a data based site.. it has Kentucky as an 11 seed which ain’t happening. I think Auburn, Kentucky, UT are complete locks.. LSU, State, Florida all have very high chances, then 1-2 of Vandy, Bama, Arky will get in

quote:

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SEC is 2-17 vs KenPom top 50 teams


5 may be generous

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I agree. We haven't done well OOC thus far.

Also, how about that coaches poll lol.

Auburn drops below Kentucky.

Both teams 5-1.

Both teams lost to the same team on a neutral court.

Auburn by 6. 34 free throws to 9.

Kentucky by 30+.

Awesome stuff.

Trayvon Reed beat another road Pac 12 team. Led Texas Southern with 23 points (9/9), this time against a top 25 Oregon. Bol Bol was out there hitting PG 3's. Reed had 15 and 12 in their win at Baylor, and 14 and 16 against Gonzaga.

I still don’t understand why so many people on this board didn’t like heron last year. He was the leading scorer on a team that won 26 games but caught so much shite last year.

He was the best player last year. People can say Bryce and Harper were more electric but not tbe best.

People were frustrated by Heron’s style of play. If he got the ball he was likely going to shoot it and was frequently the main culprit of the offense slowing down. He was without a doubt the most talented player we had, he just wasn’t a good fit.

way out of left field here guys...

If I get rid of Direct TV, how can I still watch AU bball?