re: Casey Mize signs

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Mize's leverage would be that Detroit wasted their first round pick this year, if he chose to come back. While the MLB draft is deeper than any other sport, nobody wants to miss out on their first round pick.....especially the #1 pick.

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There is protection for MLB teams in that Detroit would receive the 2nd overall pick in next year's draft had they not signed Mize. While that sounds like a "loss" (going from 1st to 2nd), its important to note that Mize is NOT a generational talent, simply the best player in a draft class that was very average at the top end, which means that he is NOT a must-sign player like a Bryce Harper. Having the 2nd overall pick next year plus another likely Top 10 pick from their performance this season would set Detroit up for an absolutely massive bonus pool in 2019, which means that they would hold the power to dominate that draft class and completely offset not signing Mize this year. Bonus pool strength is what dominates the MLB draft: the more money you have to spend, the more power you hold to push players to your own picks and away from other teams.

None of this really matter at all because Detroit and Mize came to an agreement BEFORE the pick was even made. MLB teams hold power in that they can shop their selection to numerous players, which means that if Mize wants to ask for more money than Detroit is willing to give him, they will just come to an agreement with someone else who will gladly cut a deal to go #1 overall. Nobody in the MLB just randomly drafts players that high without having an agreement in principle in place. In Mize's case, it is in his best interest to take #1 overall money, even if its not the full amount, because playing his chances next season holds literally zero upside. As you can see, his bonus ($7.5 mill) is still the new record under the new system, so in what sense did it make sense for him to do something absolutely retarded like going back to school? He's a guy who has already had shoddy medicals (two injuries), hence $7.5 mill is the best he will do and its an offer that his agent would slap him over the head for trying to better.

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Mize had plenty of leverage. Juniors get plenty of leverage, and especially the first pick. Everyone keeps referencing Detroit getting the second pick next year, but if you are the GM and you don't sign the first pick, you get fired. I don't think alvila is going to lose his job over 500k.
I haven't checked in a week or so, but as of last week many of the first rounders signed for 500k or more under slot value. When the entire first round does that it sets a precedent that Detroit can bargain from.
Mize didn't sign under slot because of leverage. If he wanted he could go to the independent leagues like Luke Hochevar did, Alvila gets canned, and he can sign next year again. Realistically Mize is a good dude and is too smart to do that over 500k. If it were a few million, there might have been issues

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You are wrong and don't understand this sphere at all, just leave it at that. You need to understand that he isn't taken first overall without agreeing to what he signed for before the pick was even made, so your whole point about Avila not wanting to lose his job over $500K is completely moot because if that was the situation then Mize wouldn't have even been selected in the first place. In fact there WERE points during the process wherein there was talk that Detroit was seriously considering HS outfielder Jarred Kelenic (who went 6th) as a heavy underslot selection at #1, as well as Joey Bart who went 2nd. The point here is that the team will just come to an agreement with someone else if Mize doesn't want to. Only generational talents can truly play hard-ball because the team can't justify passing on a Bryce Harper or Stephen Strasburg at #1....and Mize isn't that player, period.

Players cut under-slot deals in the MLB draft because slot values deteriorate so quickly at the top that guys can actually make MORE money by agreeing to take less money at a higher pick, if that makes sense (ie: if you realistically would have gone 10th, you still make more money taking an underslot deal at #6 because there is a $1 million difference in those slots that you can cut between). Here is the situation that you don't understand: it came down to Mize and Bart in the end for Detroit. Had Detroit taken Bart (lets pretend that Mize played hardball and they simply passed), it was then common knowledge that San Fran at #2 was NOT going to take Mize either. That means that his landing spot is then likely Philly at #3...who's pick value is only $6.9 million. So even if Philly selects him under the promise that they're going to give him above that $6.9 mill slot, is he going to make any more money than he ultimately agreed to with Detroit ($7.5 million)? No, he's not. It made every bit of sense for him to agree to the perfectly fair deal that he was offered, and he took that deal because he and his representation aren't stupid.

Yes, he can threaten to go to the Indy League, which 9 times out of 10 is a colossal mistake. He would not get anywhere near $7.5 million next year had he done that (Why would he? His value doesn't magically go up, it can only go down) so that strategy only makes sense if he's in the business of making LESS money. Luke Hochevar did that under a completely different CBA by the way, the rules are now monumentally different and the days wherein kids could just threaten crappy teams at the top and still get $5+ million from the Yankees at the end of the first round are over, because teams like the Yankees picking at the end of the first round can't pay that much anymore due to capped spending. Also, you are hopelessly naive if you actually believe that Avila's job would be up in the air in any way shape or form. As I said, the situation that you are describing would require Mize and his agent to go back on their word and break their pre-selection agreement. Not only would his agent never do that (that's a good way to make sure your future guys never get selected by that team again) but no owner would fire their GM because a kid agreed to sign for 'X' amount, and then later demanded more.