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Posted on 11/29/17 at 8:23 pm to Columbia
quote:
It’s analytics, numbers change.
Most people do not understand analytics.
Bert and the University paid a firm to provide analytical numbers and strategies, this is why his kicker would kick it to the one instead of into the endzone, your odd for better field position is infinitely better to kick to the one instead of allowing a knee and starting at the 25 for example.
However, like moneyball, you can't cherry pick what you want to take from it, its a strategy that you have to be all in for it to work as any deviation recalculates the entire set of figures used to come up with the calculations.
Posted on 11/29/17 at 8:35 pm to DaleDenton
quote:
this is why his kicker would kick it to the one instead of into the endzone, your odd for better field position is infinitely better to kick to the one instead of allowing a knee and starting at the 25 for example.
When executed. And something tells me it's easier for an amateur kicker to just kick the shite out of the ball instead of trying to settle kicks at the 1. Would that explain why we have so many procedure penalties? Because they're aiming so hard for the 1?
I get that the numbers may say kicking to the 1 is the way to go, but I don't trust 20 year olds to hit that.
Posted on 11/29/17 at 8:42 pm to Columbia
quote:
At the time of those quotes you posted, Bielema’s numbers were on the climb. It’s analytics, numbers change.
The analytics changed because Bert was in over his head.
Recruiting and coaching changes bit him in the arse.
Posted on 11/29/17 at 8:44 pm to DaleDenton
quote:
However, like moneyball, you can't cherry pick what you want to take from it, its a strategy that you have to be all in for it to work as any deviation recalculates the entire set of figures used to come up with the calculations.
Excellent point.
The odds shift. If you're playing field position on kickoffs but do dumb shite like throw it deep on 4th and 1 with the game on the line you're essentially pointing a loaded gun at your dick.
Posted on 11/29/17 at 8:44 pm to ocelot4ark
Most of the penalties occurred when also trying to directional kick, the kickers did pretty good placing it at the goal line in the middle of the field.
I'm sure there was a page two to this strategy, just not used, as I don't believe the 5-8 yards of field position is that important during the course of the game.
I'm sure there was a page two to this strategy, just not used, as I don't believe the 5-8 yards of field position is that important during the course of the game.
Posted on 11/29/17 at 11:14 pm to DaleDenton
quote:
'm sure there was a page two to this strategy,
how bout fielding a return unit sometime. our problems were all fundamentals. poor tackling, poor angles ,and poor job of positioning.
Posted on 11/29/17 at 11:23 pm to DaleDenton
quote:
However, like moneyball, you can't cherry pick what you want to take from it, its a strategy that you have to be all in for it to work as any deviation recalculates the entire set of figures used to come up with the calculations.
Kevin Kelly takes this to the nth degree. Yep. All in or it doesn’t work. Works for him.
Math.
Posted on 11/29/17 at 11:47 pm to BamaHog
Yes Kelly goes full bore and it works for him, but Belichick is also a guy who's big on probability and macth up stats, but he is by far not an analytics guy. He uses many principles (he's basically the first guy that started kicking to the 1 instead of touchbacks) but what he pulls of is exactly what Bert tried nad failed to do.
Belichick's gut instinct and coaching prowess is essentially his analytics, and it usually matches up with the numbers. He probably didn't look at much data about kickoffs, he simply used basic logic and reason that his special teams will pin a guy much closer to the goal line instead of the 25.
He also always uses left footed punters.. Did he pour over stats about them? Of course not, he just knew from experience that those guys really frick with returners heads because the ball comes in from a different angle.
He also has a strong propensity to go for it on fourth down, but you can tell it's all situational and how he feels the game is going for his team. In a way, he's the ultimate self-analtical coach because his instincts are so good and he uses logic so much more often than most coaches.
In the 2014 Super Bowl every single person watching and even the other Coaches were calling for a timeout before the Butler interception, but Belichick looked at Seattle's sideline and saw they were in disarray. I'm sure every statistical measure probably said to take a time out there but he didn't, he applied his own in-game judgment and it's worked.
Bert simply didn't have the coaching instincts, experience, or on field talent to pull of this, but he also did moronic things like others have pointed out like throwing bombs on 4th down and getting ultra conservative when he didn't need to be.
He was like some meathead version of moneyball that tried to look smart but actually hurt his teams in many ways because he simply didn't apply the guidelines situationally properly. If your Kicker sucks don't have him doing things he can't really do like finesse Kickoff to the corner and often go Out of bounds.
Belichick's gut instinct and coaching prowess is essentially his analytics, and it usually matches up with the numbers. He probably didn't look at much data about kickoffs, he simply used basic logic and reason that his special teams will pin a guy much closer to the goal line instead of the 25.
He also always uses left footed punters.. Did he pour over stats about them? Of course not, he just knew from experience that those guys really frick with returners heads because the ball comes in from a different angle.
He also has a strong propensity to go for it on fourth down, but you can tell it's all situational and how he feels the game is going for his team. In a way, he's the ultimate self-analtical coach because his instincts are so good and he uses logic so much more often than most coaches.
In the 2014 Super Bowl every single person watching and even the other Coaches were calling for a timeout before the Butler interception, but Belichick looked at Seattle's sideline and saw they were in disarray. I'm sure every statistical measure probably said to take a time out there but he didn't, he applied his own in-game judgment and it's worked.
Bert simply didn't have the coaching instincts, experience, or on field talent to pull of this, but he also did moronic things like others have pointed out like throwing bombs on 4th down and getting ultra conservative when he didn't need to be.
He was like some meathead version of moneyball that tried to look smart but actually hurt his teams in many ways because he simply didn't apply the guidelines situationally properly. If your Kicker sucks don't have him doing things he can't really do like finesse Kickoff to the corner and often go Out of bounds.
Posted on 11/30/17 at 12:17 am to DaleDenton
quote:
Most people do not understand analytics.
just to be clear here. this guy isn't using analytics he's using metrics and reporting.
what's the difference one might ask.
for simplicity sake the easiest way to say it is that analytics are forward looking while reporting about past data. a good analytics model would have said Bert wasn't a good coach. he made poor decisions would play it way too safe then all sudden randomly throw caution to the wind. terrible clock management skills. he recruited pretty well.
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