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re: UA Basketball (16-15, 8-10)

Posted on 2/13/20 at 8:43 am to
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 2/13/20 at 8:43 am to
quote:

Good teams find ways to win and bad teams...don't. At some point in my life, I hope we're the good team that you just have a feeling will crush it in the last 4-5 minutes of a game.



Yep - and Auburn is a good, experienced team (who has also been a bit lucky, lets be honest, it isn't all skill).

I'd settle for just being average at the finding ways to win category. We don't have to be Auburn, let's just not be the anti-Auburn
Posted by mistaken4193
Member since Jan 2017
30267 posts
Posted on 2/13/20 at 8:44 am to
Ole Miss at 81....hoping that turns into a Q1 games. I’m still saying 18-13 with 1 win in SEC tournament will do the trick for us.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 2/13/20 at 8:46 am to
KenPom Expectations

vs LSU : W 86-84 (56%)
vs Texas A&M : W 77-64 (89%)
@ Ole Miss : W 76-75 (51%)
@ Miss St : L 80-76 (38%)
vs South Carolina : W 82-76 (71%)
vs Vanderbilt : W 87-73 (90%)
@ Missouri : W 76-73 (59%)


Game by Game Projection : 19-12 (11-7)

Net Projection : 18-13 (10-8)
Posted by mistaken4193
Member since Jan 2017
30267 posts
Posted on 2/13/20 at 8:48 am to
I’m still not gonna get my hopes up... but this group can pull it off.


In typical Bama Basketball fashion I fully expect us to beat LSU and win 1 of the Mississippi games and then come home and Lose to South Carolina
Posted by Gary Busey
Member since Dec 2014
33277 posts
Posted on 2/13/20 at 8:48 am to
That Ole Miss game is going to be tough. They're a different animal at home and have a good backcourt.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 2/13/20 at 8:49 am to
quote:

That Ole Miss game is going to be tough. They're a different animal at home and have a good backcourt.



Ole Miss and South Carolina are not going to be gimmees at all and Missouri on the road will be a grind as well

We'll have to play well down the stretch to get to 18 wins
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 2/13/20 at 9:05 am to
The stat that most directly correlates with us winning or losing (outside of direct metrics like FG%) : Free Throw Rate

- Offensive Free Throw Rate > 40.0 = 10-1

- Offensive Free Throw Rate <= 40.0 = 3-10

This post was edited on 2/13/20 at 9:07 am
Posted by TideCPA
Member since Jan 2012
14004 posts
Posted on 2/13/20 at 9:17 am to
quote:

KenPom Expectations

vs LSU : W 86-84 (56%)
vs Texas A&M : W 77-64 (89%)
@ Ole Miss : W 76-75 (51%)
@ Miss St : L 80-76 (38%)
vs South Carolina : W 82-76 (71%)
vs Vanderbilt : W 87-73 (90%)
@ Missouri : W 76-73 (59%)


That would get us to 17-12 after 29 games. It's like clockwork.
Posted by Cobrasize
Birmingham
Member since Jun 2013
49884 posts
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:18 am to
Wiley had 17 rebounds last night



Posted by phaz
Waddell, AZ
Member since Jan 2009
6636 posts
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:22 am to
Wouldn't that be 19-12?

Is my math wrong?
Posted by The Spleen
Member since Dec 2010
38865 posts
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:23 am to
quote:

Good teams find ways to win and bad teams...don't. At some point in my life, I hope we're the good team that you just have a feeling will crush it in the last 4-5 minutes of a game.




I get what you're saying, but we've gutted out a few close wins this season. Mizzou was a little closer than the final indicated, Kansas St, UGA, and one other I'm forgetting. We do need to do it more consistently, but those are games we most likely would have lost in recent previous seasons.

The flip side is we've lost a couple of close games. The Florida and Tennessee games were just inexplicable and games good teams don't lose. Auburn was a close loss, but I also don't feel like we ever had a legitimate shot at winning that game. We never lead, and expended so much energy fighting back we didn't enough left in the tank to make it happen in OT.
Posted by BamaFan107
Madison
Member since Dec 2019
893 posts
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:27 am to
quote:

Good game and all but duck you guys. Didn't need another heart attack game midweek + lose our best player.

I've been saying for awhile OatzNhoez seems like a good coach and a Ricky Bobby mentality 3FG team is both fun + dangerous


Great game!! Hope Okoro is okay, love that kid. Think he will be very special.
Posted by TiderNAL
Member since Nov 2010
8042 posts
Posted on 2/13/20 at 10:33 am to
quote:

And a super random stat - we've been harping on turnovers (rightfully so)............

5 Games with our Lowest Turnover Rate %
1. @ Auburn (9.6%) (Loss)
2. @ Kentucky (10.8%) (Loss)
3. @ LSU (11.9%) (Loss)
4. @ Penn State (12.5%) (Loss)
5. @ Florida (13.0%) (Loss)


The 5 games this year where we've handled the ball the best we've lost

I got nothing


Posted by CrimsonFever
Gump Hard or Go Home
Member since Jul 2012
18095 posts
Posted on 2/13/20 at 11:01 am to
Kira is the 25th pick in SI's latest mock.


quote:

25. Knicks (via Clippers) - Kira Lewis, PG, Alabama
Height: 6’2” | Weight: 160 | Age: 18 | Sophomore

We’ll see whether Lewis can adequately follow up on an eye-opening 37-point performance against Georgia over the weekend, but his extreme youth and blinding end-to-end speed are two factors working in his favor from a long-term perspective. He’s still figuring out how to consistently run a team and lead an offense in the halfcourt, but he’s going to be able to put pressure on defenses in the open court and going downhill, and his turnover woes can be partially excused due to his age and the fact he’s playing 92 percent of available minutes on one of the fastest-paced teams in the country. Lewis has become an increasingly viable option in the 20s, and could conceivably go higher than this.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 2/13/20 at 11:03 am to
Yea, Kira is going to do nothing but keep climbing. And good for him, he's been an absolute workhorse this year.

He's got flaws and things to improve but he's gone to the post every night on a team where, like Oats said post-game, he just kind of has to.
Posted by My2Bits
2500 mi from Tuscaloosa due west
Member since Jun 2012
5649 posts
Posted on 2/13/20 at 11:11 am to
If he stays another year he may be a lottery pick. Smarter,Stronger and more Polished.
Posted by Chadaristic
Member since Jan 2011
41004 posts
Posted on 2/13/20 at 11:20 am to
Posted by Chadaristic
Member since Jan 2011
41004 posts
Posted on 2/13/20 at 11:21 am to
quote:

Kira Lewis Jr. averages 41 minutes per game over @AlabamaMBB's last four games.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 2/13/20 at 11:24 am to
South Carolina is playing good ball. Be interesting to see how they do the next week : vs Tennessee, @ State, vs LSU.
Posted by CrimsonFever
Gump Hard or Go Home
Member since Jul 2012
18095 posts
Posted on 2/13/20 at 11:37 am to
We probably have to go at least 5 and 2 over these next 7 games with a win over either LSU or Miss St. to get in the tourney.

If we do this TeamRankings.com gives us a 88% chance to get in. I think we can do it. We probably end up winning a game or two in the SECT as well.
This post was edited on 2/13/20 at 11:40 am
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