re: UA Basketball (16-15, 8-10)

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ALABAMA IN POSSESSION: The Alabama offense most definitely should have the upper hand on the LSU defense in this matchup. Alabama is currently 36th in the country in offensive efficiency, while LSU nationally comes in at #142 in defensive efficiency.

SHOT SELECTION: There are comparable shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The Alabama offense exhibits a solid preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the LSU defense similarly surrenders significantly more opportunities from the outside. Against the LSU defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Alabama offense will be 51.5% three-pointers (13.8% above the D1 average), 20.7% mid-range jumpers (6.8% below the D1 average), and 27.8% near-proximity twos (7.0% below the D1 average).

SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Alabama has been converting field goals at a solid rate and is rated our #59 team in overall field goal percentage this season. The LSU defense, meanwhile, has been doing a fairly decent job to defend opposing shooters, ranking 97th in the NCAA in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the Alabama offense has a notable advantage in both three-point shooting and near-proximity shooting, while the LSU defense has the edge in mid-range shooting. This site expects Alabama to shoot 38.1% from three (4.7% above the D1 average), 32.0% from the mid-range (4.5% below the D1 average), 60.3% from near-proximity locations (1.4% above the D1 average), and 43.0% overall (0.1% below the D1 average).

REBOUNDING: LSU may very well have a slight rebounding advantage at this end of the floor. Alabama seems to be a bit better than the D1 norm when it comes to offensive rebounding. Conversely, they're actually somewhat below-average at turning second-chance opportunities into points (rated 241st nationally in second-chance conversion percentage). Meanwhile, LSU has the markings of a team that's above-average on the defensive glass, and they've likewise done fairly acceptable work containing foes' conversion rates off of second chances (nationally ranking #100 in that department).

TURNOVERS: Neither team has much of an advantage in this category. On offense, Alabama is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. Meanwhile, the LSU defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and likely wouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 120th in that category).

FREE THROWS: These two squads are matched fairly evenly in this department. Alabama heavily relies on obtaining chances from the charity stripe (22nd in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (70.1%, ranked #185 in Division I). Meanwhile, the LSU D does an exceptional job keeping foes off the foul line and ranks 26th in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate.

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THE X-FACTORS:

PACE: There should be a fairly lively tempo when these two teams meet. Neither of these squads has an issue with running in transition. Alabama is third in the country in game pace, while LSU currently ranks 86th.

AWAY/HOME COURT: Alabama has performed worse away from home this year than they have at home. Luckily for them, they are facing LSU, who has played their most inefficient basketball this season when competing on their home floor.

MOMENTUM: Alabama has the advantage in this department. They've been playing better ball as of late and are currently ranked 14th in the country in positive momentum.

CONSISTENCY: Both of these squads are pretty consistent from an efficiency perspective. Alabama ranks 52nd in the country in consistency, while LSU is presently 93rd in that category.

THE VERDICT: Don't be shocked if this one goes right down to the wire. LSU wins by small margin. LSU 86.68, Alabama 83.29.

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ANALYSIS:

This website places LSU in the top 25% of all NCAA college basketball teams this year. Carrying a record of 15-4, they are currently rated #39 overall (out of 353) in All-Play Percentage this season.

LSU is undoubtedly one of the best in the business on offense. The team is rated seventh in offensive efficiency, scoring more than 115 points every 100 possessions vs. AO. LSU is a very dangerous team when it comes to shooting the rock, ranking in the top-25 in three of our four major field goal categories. They are most proficient from two-point range, making good on 43.4% of their mid-range jumpers (15th in the nation), 67.9% of their near-proximity chances (18th), and 49.2% of their total shots from the field (ninth) vs. AO. LSU also does an outstanding job finishing any scoring chances they obtain from offensive rebounds. Against AO, the team successfully converts 8.1% of all second-chance opportunities (ranked 12th nationally). If LSU does have a weakness offensively, it would have to be the team's penchant for allowing too many easy buckets off of giveaways. The squad has a rating of 13.75 vs. AO in potential points allowed off of steals, which ranks 50th-worst in the college game.

Though they're not quite as efficient defensively as they are offensively, LSU still does OK when the opposition has possession of the ball. The team ranks 142nd nationally in defensive efficiency, allowing about 98 points every 100 trips upcourt vs. AO. LSU does a pretty solid job avoiding careless fouls and minimizing opponents' opportunities from the free throw line. With a defensive free throw attempt rate of 18.97 vs. AO, they are currently rated 26th in the country in that category. LSU has also been fairly decent in preventing teams from draining shots from between the three-point stripe and the low post. They're ranked 72nd in Division I in defensive mid-range field goal percentage, allowing AO to make good on only 32.9% of their attempts from that distance.

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CURIOUS TRENDS:

When facing teams that find ways to get to the free throw line, LSU often performs worse than normal. LSU is more efficient than usual 20% of the time when facing teams that have an offensive free throw attempt rate vs. AO greater than 27.08. In their other contests, LSU performs better than the norm 67% of the time.

LSU does better vs. clubs that have trouble defending the mid-range shot. When playing squads that have a defensive mid-range field goal percentage vs. AO greater than 34.07%, LSU performs above average 67% of the time. Against all other opponents, the team performs better than the norm 20% of the time.

LSU performs better against squads that are more proficient at draining the mid-range shot. When facing teams that have an offensive mid-range field goal percentage vs. AO greater than 36.80%, LSU is more efficient than normal 60% of the time. In their other contests, the team is more efficient 22% of the time.

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ANALYSIS:

Alabama has a fairly solid squad that likely falls within the top quartile of all teams in college basketball this year. They have a record of 12-7 and are ranked 37th overall (out of 353) in the latest Haslametrics ratings. With a strength-of-schedule rating of 0.690 (the 17th-highest in the country), they've also prepared themselves by taking on some of the best teams in the college game.

Alabama has a reasonably potent offensive attack. Occupying the #36 slot in our offensive efficiency rankings and embracing one of the game's most blistering paces (the third-fastest in D1), they will score about 109 points for every 100 trips upcourt vs. AO. Alabama does a super job in their efforts to get to the free throw line. With a free throw attempt rate of 31.20 vs. AO, they are ranked 22nd in the nation at getting to the charity stripe, where the team shoots a rather mediocre 70.1%. Alabama will also make a concerted effort to fire off quite a few three-pointers each game. The team ranks 26th in ratio of three-point attempts to total field goal attempts. If you do allow them to shoot from long, they have the ability to punish you for it, too. Ranked in the top-75 in three-point shooting percentage, they make approximately 36.5% of their three-point attempts vs. AO.

Alabama plays at roughly the same level defensively as they do offensively. The team ranks 55th nationally in defensive efficiency, allowing about 90 points every 100 trips upcourt vs. AO. Alabama is one of the very best in the land in overall defensive field goal percentage. The team ranks #19 nationally in field goal percentage allowed, as AO only makes good on about 37.7% of their total attempts from the floor. Alabama also does exquisite work to shut down the opposition from the inside. They are ranked 23rd in the country in defensive near-proximity percentage, allowing AO to make good on only 50.4% of their attempts from close-up.

Alabama has been playing some of its most efficient basketball of the season recently and is presently ranked 14th in positive momentum.

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CURIOUS TRENDS:

Alabama is typically worse vs. teams that typically allow more than a fair share of breakaway opportunities. Against foes that have a potential point rate allowed off steals vs. AO greater than 10.98, Alabama performs above their norm 13% of the time. Against the remaining opposition, the team performs above average 73% of the time.

When facing teams that prefer the outside shot, Alabama often performs better than normal. Alabama is more efficient than usual 70% of the time when facing teams that have an offensive shooting proximity score vs. AO greater than 2.03. In their other contests, Alabama performs better than the norm 22% of the time.

Alabama does worse vs. clubs that favor a faster tempo. When playing squads that have a pace vs. AO greater than 71.44, Alabama performs above average 25% of the time. Against all other opponents, the team performs better than the norm 64% of the time.

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