re: Too Early 2026 Predictions Topic

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You seem hung-up on the number of “3-and-outs”. I am unclear as to why Total Defense (or even yards-allowed per play) do not interest you more because that gives you a clear picture of whether a defense is allowing teams to maintain drives or not.

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What about looking at Stop Rate?

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What is stop rate? It's a basic measurement of success: the percentage of a defense's drives that end in a punt, turnover or a turnover on downs. Defensive coordinators have the same goal regardless of their scheme, opponent or conference: prevent points and get off the field. Stop rate is a simple metric but can offer a good reflection of a defense's effectiveness on a per-drive basis in today's faster-tempo game.

Stop rate is not an advanced stat and is no substitute for Bill Connelly's SP+, FPI or other more comprehensive metrics. It's merely a different method for evaluating success on defense against FBS opponents.

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Final college football defensive stop rate

It does not take field position into account. Nor does it take into account the accumulation of drives in a given game (it is easier to defend 8 drives bc you have an offense that consistently drives the ball/controls the clock and field position). It lacks context to say the least. Also, look at the mighty Georgia Bulldog defense only 5 spots higher.

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It does not take field position into account. Nor does it take into account the accumulation of drives in a given game (it is easier to defend 8 drives bc you have an offense that consistently drives the ball/controls the clock and field position). It lacks context to say the least.

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Alright man, whatever makes you feel better about our defense!

What do you think the regular season record would have been if the defense was ranked in the mid-20’s in Total Defense?

For context, they were #11 in Scoring and and #10 in Total Defense at the end of the regular season (10-2 record).

My estimate is 4-4 in the SEC (reality: 7-1)
Defense (imo) was the difference in:
1. Georgia: 24-21 (offense shutout in 2nd half)
2. Missouri: 20-17 (offense less than 100 total yards in 2nd half)
3. South Carolina: 28-22 (defense scored 9 points on their own and forced 3 takeaways)
4. LSU: 20-9 (offense had 7 three-and-outs). Defense forced 3 turnovers leading to two FG’s without the offense having to gain a first down)

Bonus: Holding Vandy and Pavia to just 14 points

I understand your sentiment, and I too wish the defense was the way it was in its hay-day with Pruitt from 2016-2017.
I do not love the defense and I wish teams feared them like the old days.

All I’m trying to point out is that in the 28 games that CKW has been the DC, only 13 teams have allowed less points. That includes allowing fewer yards and points than Kirby’s Georgia defense.


With an Offensive HC, the defense could be FAR worse. And it’s not like they have wasted a lot of talent. I would argue that the talent level defensively over the past two seasons has been the lowest since 2007.

What SEC game from this past year can you honestly say the defense didn’t play well enough to win? I don’t mean dominants, and I wish like hell they did completely dominate, but at the end of the day, they did enough to carry this team to Atlanta.