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re: Too Early 2026 Predictions Topic
Posted on 1/20/26 at 5:03 pm to TS1926
Posted on 1/20/26 at 5:03 pm to TS1926
Limiting yards, preventing points, and forcing turnovers are the 3 (consensus) measuring sticks for a defense, and even “yards per play” can break it down even more accurately due to the fact that the number of plays an opponent runs can vary.
Bama rated in the top15 (was top10 prior to the postseason) in all 3 categories.
Bama gave up the 9th fewest points two years ago, but allowed 316ypg (23rd overall). If you want to consider that “bend but not break” then I won’t argue (but they also forced the 3rd most turnovers in the nation).
This year, they surrendered just 296ypg. First time since 2017 they have been under 300ypg.
I don’t know how many “3-and-outs” that equates to, and if you are trying to compare their performance to Saban’s 20111-2017 defenses then I’m sure you are not satisfied.
However, the defense was in the middle of total overhaul when CKW took over and have performed better over the past 2 seasons than any of CNS’s from 2020-2025 (2023 may be the lone exception).
I’m sure we all wish they had more 1st round talents that suffocated offenses into submission, but we have an OFFENSIVE HC, and yet it’s been the defense that has carried the water for his program so far.
I also believe the decision to continue to use their 3-4 Under Front is critical, snd they brought in massive big bodies out of the Portal to reinforce it.
The fact the CKW has been willing to adapt and not be married to a 4-2-5 like I thought he would be, says a lot about him imo. I think next year’s group will be the strongest yet……a decent Punter and a running game would help the defense out as well.
Bama rated in the top15 (was top10 prior to the postseason) in all 3 categories.
Bama gave up the 9th fewest points two years ago, but allowed 316ypg (23rd overall). If you want to consider that “bend but not break” then I won’t argue (but they also forced the 3rd most turnovers in the nation).
This year, they surrendered just 296ypg. First time since 2017 they have been under 300ypg.
I don’t know how many “3-and-outs” that equates to, and if you are trying to compare their performance to Saban’s 20111-2017 defenses then I’m sure you are not satisfied.
However, the defense was in the middle of total overhaul when CKW took over and have performed better over the past 2 seasons than any of CNS’s from 2020-2025 (2023 may be the lone exception).
I’m sure we all wish they had more 1st round talents that suffocated offenses into submission, but we have an OFFENSIVE HC, and yet it’s been the defense that has carried the water for his program so far.
I also believe the decision to continue to use their 3-4 Under Front is critical, snd they brought in massive big bodies out of the Portal to reinforce it.
The fact the CKW has been willing to adapt and not be married to a 4-2-5 like I thought he would be, says a lot about him imo. I think next year’s group will be the strongest yet……a decent Punter and a running game would help the defense out as well.
Posted on 1/20/26 at 5:36 pm to Caesar74
09/05: East Carolina - win
09/12: @Kentucky - win
09/19: Florida State - win
09/26: South Carolina - win
10/03: @Mississippi State - win
10/10: Georgia - loss
10/17: @Tennessee - loss
10/24: Texas A&M - toss up
11/07: @Louisiana State - toss up
11/14: @Vanderbilt - win
11/21: Chattanooga - win
11/28: Auburn - win
8-4 or 10-2
09/12: @Kentucky - win
09/19: Florida State - win
09/26: South Carolina - win
10/03: @Mississippi State - win
10/10: Georgia - loss
10/17: @Tennessee - loss
10/24: Texas A&M - toss up
11/07: @Louisiana State - toss up
11/14: @Vanderbilt - win
11/21: Chattanooga - win
11/28: Auburn - win
8-4 or 10-2
Posted on 1/20/26 at 6:03 pm to TS1926
quote:
Will Stockton be back?
Yes, and he’s better than the garbage UT is about to trot out
Posted on 1/20/26 at 6:22 pm to Diego Ricardo
Win
Win
Win or Crap the bed
Win or crap the bed
Win or crap the bed
Loss
Toss up
Toss up
Toss up
Win or crap the bed
Win
Win or crap the bed
Current gut feeling is that we go 9-3. Georgia loss, plus one of the toss ups vs UT LSU or TAMU and 1 annual DeBoer traditional crap the bed loss.
FWIW I thought we'd go 9-3 in 25 so maybe we do one better and get back into the playoffs.
Win
Win or Crap the bed
Win or crap the bed
Win or crap the bed
Loss
Toss up
Toss up
Toss up
Win or crap the bed
Win
Win or crap the bed
Current gut feeling is that we go 9-3. Georgia loss, plus one of the toss ups vs UT LSU or TAMU and 1 annual DeBoer traditional crap the bed loss.
FWIW I thought we'd go 9-3 in 25 so maybe we do one better and get back into the playoffs.
Posted on 1/20/26 at 7:32 pm to TS1926
They allowed under 300ypg (including all postseason games), for the first time since 2017.
Bama allowed the fewest yards except for OU in the SEC (including Georgia).
Imagine if they had an offense that could run the ball and consistently run the ball and stay in the field (a decent Punter would help too).
- Secondary is the best in the SEC
- Y. Pierre will have 10+ sacks
- DL now has the massive size for the
3-4 Under Front CKW has slowly transitioned too.
- I expect Xavier Griffin will start at LB as a TF just like CNS had 8 Freshman start at LB and became studs
Bama allowed the fewest yards except for OU in the SEC (including Georgia).
Imagine if they had an offense that could run the ball and consistently run the ball and stay in the field (a decent Punter would help too).
- Secondary is the best in the SEC
- Y. Pierre will have 10+ sacks
- DL now has the massive size for the
3-4 Under Front CKW has slowly transitioned too.
- I expect Xavier Griffin will start at LB as a TF just like CNS had 8 Freshman start at LB and became studs
This post was edited on 1/21/26 at 7:04 am
Posted on 1/20/26 at 7:34 pm to TS1926
You mean the 4th and 1 stop at the
10-yard line that won the game in Athens?
10-yard line that won the game in Athens?
This post was edited on 1/21/26 at 7:52 am
Posted on 1/20/26 at 7:47 pm to TS1926
Who “drove the field and scored points” outside of IU? Bama held UGA to 2.3ypc, and was 2nd in the conference in fewest yards allowed. Was also #10 in scoring defense nationally prior to the start of the postseason. Defense held UGA to 282 yards in the SECCG and 14 of the 28 points allowed came off a blocked punt and a turnover on downs inside the 8 yard line. They also recovered a fumble and had a pick-6 to turn the OU game around.
This post was edited on 1/21/26 at 7:58 am
Posted on 1/20/26 at 9:26 pm to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:
Yes, and he’s better than the garbage UT is about to trot out
I agree.
Posted on 1/20/26 at 9:29 pm to Cover1Key
quote:
You mean the 4th and 1 stop at the 10-yard line the win the game in Athens?
Right but that was more stupidity on Kirby’s part than great defense.
Posted on 1/20/26 at 9:32 pm to TS1926
quote:
Right but that was more stupidity on Kirby’s part than great defense.

Posted on 1/21/26 at 7:02 am to TS1926
You have to understand that now as an Alabama fan we have an Offensive-minded HC.
CNS’s defenses had their flaws (primarily Golding was the only true flaw), but most years it was amongst the best in the nation and was always filled with 1st rounders even when it wasn’t.
CKD is an Offensive-minded Coach, however I do believe he gives more attention to all 3 phases compared to most “offensive gurus”.
So, for the defense to finish Top10 in Scoring Defense in Year 1, and 2nd in the conference in Total Defense Year 2 (including having forced the 5th most turnovers in all of CFB during that time span), the fans need to learn to appreciate that.
When CKD was hired, I’m sure many were like myself, and thought we would be winning games with a high powered// high scoring offense and a defense that did just enough to hang on.
Reality, has been the complete opposite. The defense over the past 2 years for better or for worse, has played well enough to win every game except for Vandy in Year 1, and FSU/IU in year 2.
The defense has had to suffer with an offense that cannot run the ball, drive the ball consistently, nor flip the field, and typically are good for just around 20 points or so vs solid competition.
On top of having to endure the most disgraceful Punter/Punt Team in the nation this past year.
Without the defense, Bama would have been 4-4 in the SEC instead of 7-1, and never sniffed Atlanta nor the Playoffs.
Im not saying CKW is the best in the business, but he has 100% done his job, and I believe this next years unit will be his very best.
CNS’s defenses had their flaws (primarily Golding was the only true flaw), but most years it was amongst the best in the nation and was always filled with 1st rounders even when it wasn’t.
CKD is an Offensive-minded Coach, however I do believe he gives more attention to all 3 phases compared to most “offensive gurus”.
So, for the defense to finish Top10 in Scoring Defense in Year 1, and 2nd in the conference in Total Defense Year 2 (including having forced the 5th most turnovers in all of CFB during that time span), the fans need to learn to appreciate that.
When CKD was hired, I’m sure many were like myself, and thought we would be winning games with a high powered// high scoring offense and a defense that did just enough to hang on.
Reality, has been the complete opposite. The defense over the past 2 years for better or for worse, has played well enough to win every game except for Vandy in Year 1, and FSU/IU in year 2.
The defense has had to suffer with an offense that cannot run the ball, drive the ball consistently, nor flip the field, and typically are good for just around 20 points or so vs solid competition.
On top of having to endure the most disgraceful Punter/Punt Team in the nation this past year.
Without the defense, Bama would have been 4-4 in the SEC instead of 7-1, and never sniffed Atlanta nor the Playoffs.
Im not saying CKW is the best in the business, but he has 100% done his job, and I believe this next years unit will be his very best.
Posted on 1/21/26 at 8:10 am to TS1926
So, UGA throwing a perimeter screen straight into man-coverage (not an ideal call) and Red Morgan taking a poor angle allowing the ball carrier to cut the ball back inside the kickout by the #2 WR is a poor job by CKW, but Bama stopping them on 4th and 1 from the 10-yard line to win the game is just “Georgia being stupid”?
That does not seem like a fair assessment imo.
Some people will never be satisfied.
It would do a great deal of good for a large contingent of fans to take a break from watching Alabama highlight videos from 2011-2017.
What they are currently doing defensively is more than enough to win most games in spite of the offense.
That does not seem like a fair assessment imo.
Some people will never be satisfied.
It would do a great deal of good for a large contingent of fans to take a break from watching Alabama highlight videos from 2011-2017.
What they are currently doing defensively is more than enough to win most games in spite of the offense.
This post was edited on 1/21/26 at 8:15 am
Posted on 1/21/26 at 9:24 am to Diego Ricardo
quote:
09/05: East Carolina - W
09/12: @Kentucky - 90% W
09/19: Florida State - 80% W
09/26: South Carolina - 70% W
10/03: @Mississippi State - 80% W
10/10: Georgia 50%
10/17: @Tennessee 50% W
10/24: Texas A&M 50%
11/07: @Louisiana State 50%
11/14: @Vanderbilt 85% W
11/21: Chattanooga W
11/28: Auburn W
Mack wins job and has exceptional(1st round pick) season 11-1
Mack wins and has above expectations season 10-2
Mack with expected season 9-3
Mack wins but loses job due to injury/bad play 8-4
KR with exceptional season 10-2
KR with above expectations 9-3
KR with expected 8-4
KR/Mack neither able to fully win job 8-4
I expect a transition year. New QB will make new QB mistakes much like Ty did this year at times. Hopefully there is a huge emphasis on a running game.
This post was edited on 1/21/26 at 9:25 am
Posted on 1/21/26 at 9:29 am to Diego Ricardo
09/05: East Carolina W
09/12: @Kentucky. W
09/19: Florida State W
09/26: South Carolina L
10/03: @Mississippi State W
10/10: Georgia L
10/17: @Tennessee L
10/24: Texas A&M W
11/07: @Louisiana State L
11/14: @Vanderbilt W
11/21: Chattanooga W
11/28: Auburn W
09/12: @Kentucky. W
09/19: Florida State W
09/26: South Carolina L
10/03: @Mississippi State W
10/10: Georgia L
10/17: @Tennessee L
10/24: Texas A&M W
11/07: @Louisiana State L
11/14: @Vanderbilt W
11/21: Chattanooga W
11/28: Auburn W
Posted on 1/21/26 at 9:58 am to Diego Ricardo
09/05: East Carolina- W
09/12: @Kentucky- W
09/19: Florida State- W
09/26: South Carolina- Toss up
10/03: @Mississippi State- W
10/10: Georgia- L
10/17: @Tennessee- toss up
10/24: Texas A&M- L
11/07: @Louisiana State-L
11/14: @Vanderbilt-W
11/21: Chattanooga-W
11/28: Auburn-W
I could see us going 9-3 or 7-5. I don't think we win 10 regular season games next season.
09/12: @Kentucky- W
09/19: Florida State- W
09/26: South Carolina- Toss up
10/03: @Mississippi State- W
10/10: Georgia- L
10/17: @Tennessee- toss up
10/24: Texas A&M- L
11/07: @Louisiana State-L
11/14: @Vanderbilt-W
11/21: Chattanooga-W
11/28: Auburn-W
I could see us going 9-3 or 7-5. I don't think we win 10 regular season games next season.
This post was edited on 1/21/26 at 9:59 am
Posted on 1/21/26 at 10:45 am to Cover1Key
quote:
It would do a great deal of good for a large contingent of fans to take a break from watching Alabama highlight videos from 2011-2017.
What they are currently doing defensively is more than enough to win most games in spite of the offense.
I watched Indiana and Miami. Both of those teams have much better defenses than Alabama. They don't make as many stupid mistakes. They don't miss tackles, take poor angles to tackles, poor gap control, blown coverages, dropped ints, that doesn't happen like it does with this squad.
Throw in this team can't force three and outs, they just 'manage' the opponent's offense as it moves down the field.
I'm not arguing Alabama had a good defense, but it was not elite.
When they finally faced a really good offense in Indiana, they got it pushed in.
Posted on 1/21/26 at 11:49 am to TS1926
quote:
I watched Indiana and Miami. Both of those teams have much better defenses than Alabama. They don't make as many stupid mistakes. They don't miss tackles, take poor angles to tackles, poor gap control, blown coverages, dropped ints, that doesn't happen like it does with this squad.
Throw in this team can't force three and outs, they just 'manage' the opponent's offense as it moves down the field.
I'm not arguing Alabama had a good defense, but it was not elite.
When they finally faced a really good offense in Indiana, they got it pushed in.
Yeah, I noticed the same thing. I think we got a false sense of security of how good the defense was by playing in an SEC that honestly, was way down. On both Indiana's and Miami's rosters, I saw more explosive players than what I see on our defense. I also saw a lot more disciplined play without the boneheaded bad angles, missed run fits and other undisciplined play.
The program has taken a sizeable step backwards with regards to level of play. I haven't seen one aspect of our team have an elite aspect about it in several years.
Posted on 1/21/26 at 12:21 pm to TS1926
You seem hung-up on the number of “3-and-outs”. I am unclear as to why Total Defense (or even yards-allowed per play) do not interest you more because that gives you a clear picture of whether a defense is allowing teams to maintain drives or not.
The question I would like to pose to you would be this:
- Would you “feel” better about how the defense limitied opponents to just 19ppg and only 296ypg if they would’ve forced a “3-and-out” on 8 of the 11 drives (on average), but on the 3 drives they did allow a first down to occur, the opponent proceeded to score on each of those drives, which resulted in the same number of points and yards?
Also, why are you dismissive of turnovers? Only two CNS defenses (2011 and 2016) forced more takeaways than Bama did last year (2024).
I guess I’m just failing to grasp your infatuation (for lack of a better term) with “3-and-outs”. Again, I would point to the fact that they have allowed the 10th fewest points and 13th fewest yards over the past 2 seasons (cumulatively) while also producing the FIFTH most turnovers during that same span…..they are also doing things to WIN football games while the offense and special teams continue to vomit on itself:
- 4th and 1 stop in Athens to beat UGA 24-21
- Scoring 9 points defensively (pick-6 and a Safety) in a 28-21 comeback win vs USCe
- Recovering a fumble inside the 10 then scoring on a pick-6 to spark a Playoff comeback victory over OU
- limiting Pavia and Vandy to his 3 year career low in points (14) and forcing 3 takeaways
I can understand the final game leaving a bad taste in your mouth as it did for me as well, but I’m not going to let one poor performance against one of the teams CFB has seen in a long while (IU) take away from what the defense has accomplished over the past two seasons, and the fact that they would’ve been 4-4 in SEC play instead of playing in Atlanta and the Rose Bowl if not for the defense.
Also, you see the staff bringing in massive bodies up-front to allow them to play their (much more effective) 3-4 Under Front on early/run downs compared to a 4-2-5.
Trust me, I miss the 2016 Rebuen Foster-led defenses that put fear into opponents. But I also am realistic to understand that CNS could not even come close to fielding those types of defenses anymore (he allowed 40 points and 500+ yards in 4 games in 2020 alone).
I also understand that our HC is an OFFENSIVE HC and that the offense is supposed to be doing the heavy lifting.
That is why I am so defensive and grateful for this defense bc most all Offensive HC’s (Riley, Kiffin, Kelly, etc)
have below average defenses at best. If anyone had told me when CKD was hired that Bama would surrender the 2nd fewest yards and 3rd fewest points in the SEC over the first two seasons, then I would’ve been astonished and assumed Bama competed for a National Championship due to the offense being the reason CKD was hired and the reason for his past successes.
The question I would like to pose to you would be this:
- Would you “feel” better about how the defense limitied opponents to just 19ppg and only 296ypg if they would’ve forced a “3-and-out” on 8 of the 11 drives (on average), but on the 3 drives they did allow a first down to occur, the opponent proceeded to score on each of those drives, which resulted in the same number of points and yards?
Also, why are you dismissive of turnovers? Only two CNS defenses (2011 and 2016) forced more takeaways than Bama did last year (2024).
I guess I’m just failing to grasp your infatuation (for lack of a better term) with “3-and-outs”. Again, I would point to the fact that they have allowed the 10th fewest points and 13th fewest yards over the past 2 seasons (cumulatively) while also producing the FIFTH most turnovers during that same span…..they are also doing things to WIN football games while the offense and special teams continue to vomit on itself:
- 4th and 1 stop in Athens to beat UGA 24-21
- Scoring 9 points defensively (pick-6 and a Safety) in a 28-21 comeback win vs USCe
- Recovering a fumble inside the 10 then scoring on a pick-6 to spark a Playoff comeback victory over OU
- limiting Pavia and Vandy to his 3 year career low in points (14) and forcing 3 takeaways
I can understand the final game leaving a bad taste in your mouth as it did for me as well, but I’m not going to let one poor performance against one of the teams CFB has seen in a long while (IU) take away from what the defense has accomplished over the past two seasons, and the fact that they would’ve been 4-4 in SEC play instead of playing in Atlanta and the Rose Bowl if not for the defense.
Also, you see the staff bringing in massive bodies up-front to allow them to play their (much more effective) 3-4 Under Front on early/run downs compared to a 4-2-5.
Trust me, I miss the 2016 Rebuen Foster-led defenses that put fear into opponents. But I also am realistic to understand that CNS could not even come close to fielding those types of defenses anymore (he allowed 40 points and 500+ yards in 4 games in 2020 alone).
I also understand that our HC is an OFFENSIVE HC and that the offense is supposed to be doing the heavy lifting.
That is why I am so defensive and grateful for this defense bc most all Offensive HC’s (Riley, Kiffin, Kelly, etc)
have below average defenses at best. If anyone had told me when CKD was hired that Bama would surrender the 2nd fewest yards and 3rd fewest points in the SEC over the first two seasons, then I would’ve been astonished and assumed Bama competed for a National Championship due to the offense being the reason CKD was hired and the reason for his past successes.
Posted on 1/21/26 at 6:10 pm to NWLA_Bama
Indiana made Dan Lanning and Oregon’s #4 rated defense look like garbage….654 yards in just 3 quarters and 56 points
Posted on 1/21/26 at 7:04 pm to Cover1Key
quote:
Again, I would point to the fact that they have allowed the 10th fewest points and 13th fewest yards over the past 2 seasons (cumulatively) while also producing the FIFTH most turnovers during that same span…..they are also doing things to WIN football games
What you continue to fail to acknowledge in any of your posts regarding the Year 1 and Year 2 defenses, is the fact that nearly all of the dudes who were major contributors to the success of those defenses have graduated, gone to the NFL, or will be on other teams this upcoming season. And I am VERY skeptical that we upgraded the front seven during this recent portal cycle. I hope I’m wrong.
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