re: Tide Hoops | Recruiting

A general overview of the Win Share Metric. Keep in mind, nowhere in this metric does it look and see who won a game. It comes to a final number for each player in terms of how many "wins" they contributed over a season based on stats. As noted at the bottom, you can pretty easily do a check and see if the stat makes any sense because it will spit out numbers that can be summed into "Total Wins" and then compared to the actual total wins. More on that in the next post.

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Win Shares Metric (SR Ref)

Because this metric is designed to estimate a player's contribution in terms of wins, it makes sense to see if the sum of player Win Shares for a particular team closely matches the team win total. For the 2008-09 Cavaliers the sum of player Win Shares is 67.9, while the team win total is 66, an error of 66 - 67.9 = -1.9 wins. For the 1964-65 Royals the sum of player Win Shares is 43.5, while the team total is 48, an error of 48 - 43.5 = 4.5 wins. These errors are actually close to the "typical" error; looking at all NBA teams since the 1962-63 season (the last season we have complete player splits), the average absolute error is 2.74 wins and the root mean squared error is 3.41 wins.

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Calculate points produced for each player. In 2008-09, James had an estimated 2345.9 points produced.

Calculate offensive possessions for each player. James had an estimated 1928.1 offensive possessions in 2008-09.

Calculate marginal offense for each player. Marginal offense is equal to (points produced) - 0.92 * (league points per possession) * (offensive possessions). For James this is 2345.9 - 0.92 * 1.083 * 1928.1 = 424.8. Note that this formula may produce a negative result for some players.

Calculate marginal points per win. Marginal points per win reduces to 0.32 * (league points per game) * ((team pace) / (league pace)). For the 2008-09 Cavaliers this is 0.32 * 100.0 * (88.7 / 91.7) = 30.95.

Credit Offensive Win Shares to the players. Offensive Win Shares are credited using the following formula: (marginal offense) / (marginal points per win). James gets credit for 424.8 / 30.95 = 13.73 Offensive Win Shares.

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Calculate the Defensive Rating for each player. James's Defensive Rating in 2008-09 was 99.1.

Calculate marginal defense for each player. Marginal defense is equal to (player minutes played / team minutes played) * (team defensive possessions) * (1.08 * (league points per possession) - ((Defensive Rating) / 100)). For James this is (3054 / 19780) * 7341 * ((1.08 * 1.083) - (99.1 / 100)) = 202.5. Note that this formula may produce a negative result for some players.

Calculate marginal points per win. Marginal points per win reduces to 0.32 * (league points per game) * ((team pace) / (league pace)). For the 2008-09 Cavaliers this is 0.32 * 100.0 * (88.7 / 91.7) = 30.95.

Credit Defensive Win Shares to the players. Defensive Win Shares are credited using the following formula: (marginal defense) / (marginal points per win). James gets credit for 202.5 / 30.95 = 6.54 Defensive Win Shares.

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Does This Work?

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Because this metric is designed to estimate a player's contribution in terms of wins, it makes sense to see if the sum of player Win Shares for a particular team closely matches the team win total. For the 2008-09 Cavaliers the sum of player Win Shares is 67.9, while the team win total is 66, an error of 66 - 67.9 = -1.9 wins. For the 1964-65 Royals the sum of player Win Shares is 43.5, while the team total is 48, an error of 48 - 43.5 = 4.5 wins. These errors are actually close to the "typical" error; looking at all NBA teams since the 1962-63 season (the last season we have complete player splits), the average absolute error is 2.74 wins and the root mean squared error is 3.41 wins.

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The points both Robot and Summer make about matador defense may be more germane to improving the defense than lack of size at the guard positions.

JQ was just as guilty as JD of waving bye to guys that had beat another defender instead of getting in front of them.

For all Shack's issues defending quick guys he at least put in the effort to play help defense, take a charge etc.

In a perfect world, bigger guards would be great but smaller guards that actually use their quickness advantage in help defense would go a long way.

Gurley is actually good and he has a ton of potential to be extremely good in this offense.

Gary is a clean up guy and this past season he tried to be something different which led him to having an up and down year.

Miles is another head case for me like he has the potential to be a top draft pick but it doesn't look like he's worked on his game much from this past season. He needs to take this off season seriously by thinking about his future and if he wants to be in the NBA.
And Stay Out The Dog House!

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Do we think the chances of JQ returning are increasing?

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Yes

He might return but I don't know if he will play next season.

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I'm not worried about how he looked at times this season.

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It's basically how he looked the whole season he played against good competition. So, basing your views of him on anything else is just hoping/wishing he were better than he is.

That's the last I'm going to say about it for now. He seems like a good guy, I just don't think he's got what it takes to excel at this level.

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Gurley is basically Reese 2.0 to me

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Honestly, I prefer Reese. He lacked ability, but he was a competitor.

SEC Play Only (out of 121 players with > 20% mins played)

eFG%
3. Charles Bediako (67.1%)
10. Noah Gurley (58.6%)
38. Keon Ellis (53.5%)
57. James Rojas (50.0%)
62. JD Davison (49.2%)
87. Jaden Shackelford (46.4%)
89. Jahvon Quinerly (45.8%)
93. Juwan Gary (44.8%)
103. Darius Miles (41.8%)

104. Wendell Green Jr (41.5%)


True Shooting % (eFG% + Free Throws)
1. Charles Bediako (68.8%)
16. Noah Gurley (60.0%)
23. Keon Ellis (58.8%)
29. James Rojas (57.5%)
62. JD Davison (53.2%)
82. Jaden Shackelford (51.3%)
87. Darius Miles (50.8%)
92. Jahvon Quinerly (49.4%)
99. Juwan Gary (47.9%)


3PT% (with at least 5 attempts) (out of 103)
23. Keon Ellis (37.1%)
42. Jaden Shackelford (32.7%)
52. Noah Gurley (30.8%)
68. JD Davison (27.5%)
72. Jahvon Quinerly (27.0%)
76. Darius Miles (26.2%)
79. James Rojas (25.0%)
103. Juwan Gary (10.5%)

Yes, that is correct, Juwan Gary was the worst 3PT% shooter in the conference. 2 for 19.

86 players took at least 15 3's during conference play. The 10 worst.

77. Walker Kessler (Auburn) (22.7%)
78. Tyrin Lawrence (Vanderbilt) (22.2%)
79. Iverson Molinar (Miss St) (20.5%)
80. Kobe Brown (Missouri) (20.0%)
80. Marcus Williams (Texas A&M) (20.0%)
82. Jacobi Wright (South Carolina) (18.8%)
83. Hassan Diarra (Texas A&M) (17.9%)
84. Xavier Pinson (LSU) (15.0%)
85. Devan Cambridge (Auburn) (13.9%)
86. Juwan Gary (Alabama) (10.5%)

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Bediako needs 15 pounds of muscle and the ability to defend without fouling and he will be a force.

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Cutting down on the fouls is certainly something that is a reasonable expectation.

Bediako FR - 5.9 FC/40

Fouls per 40

Walker Kessler (AUB) (vs Top 100)
FR - 5.6
SO - 4.6

Marcus Bigham (Michigan St) (vs Top 100)
FR - 7.4
SO - 4.1
JR - 6.2
SR - 5.3

Ike Obiagu (Seton Hall) (vs Top 100)
FR - 6.4
SO - 6.8
JR - 4.1
SR - 4.3

Christian Koloko (Arizona) (vs Top 100)
FR - 6.7
SO - 7.1
JR - 4.9

Armando Bacot (UNC) (vs Top 100)
FR - 4.6
SO - 4.0
JR - 3.8

Colin Castleton (Florida) (vs Top 100)
FR - 6.2
SO - 4.4
JR - 3.2
SR - 2.8

Jaylin Williams (Arkansas) (vs Top 100)
FR - 5.2
SO - 3.3

Sam Waardenburg (Miami) (vs Top 100)
FR - 4.6
SO - 3.9
JR - 2.8
SR - 2.8

It's definitely a learned skill to use your big body to get blocks but avoid actual contact and implied contact that results in fouls. But most shot blocking bigs seem to figure it out after a year or two.

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Bediako needs 15 pounds of muscle

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He needs more like 40. His legs look like literal sticks.