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SOG Predictive Scoring Model : #1 Alabama at Tennessee
Posted on 10/16/18 at 9:43 am
Posted on 10/16/18 at 9:43 am
#1 Alabama (7-0) at Tennessee (3-3)
2:30 PM CST, CBS
Vegas Stats
Alabama -28.5
O/U 57.0
Expected Vegas Score per Odds : 43-14 Alabama
Magic SOG Prediction Machine
Alabama - 52.8
Tennessee - 14.6
Alabama
Rushing Offense : 219 yards on 5.46 YPA (40 rushes)
Passing Offense : 383 yards on 14.18 YPA (27 passes)
Total Offense : 601 yards on 8.98 YPP (67 plays)
Tennessee
Rushing Offense : 59 yards on 1.53 YPA (39 rushes)
Passing Offense : 193 yards on 7.38 YPA (26 passes)
Total Offense : 252 yards on 3.88 YPP (65 plays)
2:30 PM CST, CBS
Vegas Stats
Alabama -28.5
O/U 57.0
Expected Vegas Score per Odds : 43-14 Alabama
Magic SOG Prediction Machine
Alabama - 52.8
Tennessee - 14.6
Alabama
Rushing Offense : 219 yards on 5.46 YPA (40 rushes)
Passing Offense : 383 yards on 14.18 YPA (27 passes)
Total Offense : 601 yards on 8.98 YPP (67 plays)
Tennessee
Rushing Offense : 59 yards on 1.53 YPA (39 rushes)
Passing Offense : 193 yards on 7.38 YPA (26 passes)
Total Offense : 252 yards on 3.88 YPP (65 plays)
This post was edited on 10/16/18 at 9:44 am
3
Posted on 10/16/18 at 9:43 am to SummerOfGeorge
Is this with Tua running the offense or Jalen?
Posted on 10/16/18 at 9:45 am to TideSaint
quote:
Is this with Tua running the offense or Jalen?
Mostly Tua, but the stats include Jalen's time as well.
It'd be possible to break it out and extrapolate to see what Jalen's time looks like, but I don't have that kind of time and effort available
. Also, a lot of Jalen's time has been heavily geared towards run first. So it wouldn't be entirely accurate.Posted on 10/16/18 at 9:45 am to SummerOfGeorge
Prior Week Results
Magic SOG Prediction Machine
Alabama - 51.8
Missouri - 24.8
Actual Result
Alabama - 39
Missouri - 10
Both scores were down but the margin was on. The biggest difference was
(1) Turnovers
(2) Us resorting to field goals in the red zone so often (which greatly lowered our Points per Yard compared to expectation)
(3) Our defense played really well
Stats : Predicted vs Actual
Alabama Offense
Rushing : 163 yds, 3.99 YPA, 41 rushes vs 184 yds, 4.09 YPA, 45 rushes
Passing : 410 yards, 14.8 YPA, 28 passes vs 380 yards, 12.7 YPA, 30 passes
Total : 573 yds, 8.36 YPP, 69 plays vs 564 yds, 7.52 YPP, 75 plays
Missouri Offense
Rushing : 188 yds, 4.89 YPA, 38 rushes vs 70 yds, 2.00 YPA, 35 rushes
Passing : 208 yards, 5.2 YPA, 38 passes vs 142 yards, 5.5 YPA, 26 passes
Total : 395 yds, 5.21 YPP, 76 plays vs 212 yds, 3.48 YPP, 61 plays
Outside of a few lapses in setting the edge the rush defense was very good. Our offense played about to expectation in terms of moving the ball.
Magic SOG Prediction Machine
Alabama - 51.8
Missouri - 24.8
Actual Result
Alabama - 39
Missouri - 10
Both scores were down but the margin was on. The biggest difference was
(1) Turnovers
(2) Us resorting to field goals in the red zone so often (which greatly lowered our Points per Yard compared to expectation)
(3) Our defense played really well
Stats : Predicted vs Actual
Alabama Offense
Rushing : 163 yds, 3.99 YPA, 41 rushes vs 184 yds, 4.09 YPA, 45 rushes
Passing : 410 yards, 14.8 YPA, 28 passes vs 380 yards, 12.7 YPA, 30 passes
Total : 573 yds, 8.36 YPP, 69 plays vs 564 yds, 7.52 YPP, 75 plays
Missouri Offense
Rushing : 188 yds, 4.89 YPA, 38 rushes vs 70 yds, 2.00 YPA, 35 rushes
Passing : 208 yards, 5.2 YPA, 38 passes vs 142 yards, 5.5 YPA, 26 passes
Total : 395 yds, 5.21 YPP, 76 plays vs 212 yds, 3.48 YPP, 61 plays
Outside of a few lapses in setting the edge the rush defense was very good. Our offense played about to expectation in terms of moving the ball.
This post was edited on 10/16/18 at 9:46 am
Posted on 10/16/18 at 9:49 am to SummerOfGeorge
You gonna do one for the LSU-MSU and Auburn-OM games?
Posted on 10/16/18 at 9:50 am to TideSaint
quote:
You gonna do one for the LSU-MSU and Auburn-OM games?
At some point
Posted on 10/16/18 at 9:52 am to SummerOfGeorge
Good.
I want to see them.
I want to see them.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 9:53 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I don't have that kind of time
Posted on 10/16/18 at 9:54 am to SummerOfGeorge
I don't see how Tennessee scores more than 10 on us.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 9:55 am to elposter
quote:
elposter
Sometimes I have to use my excel spreadsheet for actual work.
Though nobody thinks twice when they walk by my office and see number filled excel spreadsheets, so it's a good cover.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 9:55 am to alabamabuckeye
quote:
I don't see how Tennessee scores more than 10 on us.
I probably would have said the same about Arkansas.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 9:59 am to alabamabuckeye
quote:
I don't see how Tennessee scores more than 10 on us.
Louisville - 14
A&M - 23
LA-L - 14
Arkansas - 31
This Bama defense is good, not great. 10+ points is not much in today's college game.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 11:36 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Sometimes I have to use my excel spreadsheet for actual work. Though nobody thinks twice when they walk by my office and see number filled excel spreadsheets, so it's a good cover.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 3:17 pm to alabamabuckeye
quote:
I don't see how Tennessee scores more than 10 on us.
If we keep getting 30+ point leads so early we're playing the 3s and deeper, it is pretty much a guarantee there will be a bust or two somewhere.
May look bad on the stat sheet, but in the end the value of playing those guys vastly outweighs any negatives.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 3:37 pm to JustGetItRight
Tennessee has a confident qb and talented wr's too. Don't expect 30 but it wouldn't surprise me if they scored 20
Posted on 10/16/18 at 3:48 pm to JustGetItRight
I dont think we will play 3s going forward.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 4:35 pm to TideSaint
quote:
You gonna do one for the LSU-MSU and Auburn-OM games?
I threw it up on the Rant.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 5:18 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I’m always the skeptic so my take is this game will be closer than we think. Tua’s knee is fine but it isn’t 100%. I also believe we are banged up elsewhere and are becoming a tired football team that’s ready for the offweek. Meanwhile UT has a little wind in their sails.
Not saying UT wins or comes close to winning. Just saying the game becomes a little grittier than we would like and our game plan will be to run down the clock as much as possible in the second half.
Not saying UT wins or comes close to winning. Just saying the game becomes a little grittier than we would like and our game plan will be to run down the clock as much as possible in the second half.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 5:33 pm to FairhopeTider
I agree. My hope is we hit a few big plays quick, take the wind out of their sails and pound away for 4 qtrs.
My brain tells me something like 34-10
My brain tells me something like 34-10
Posted on 10/16/18 at 6:42 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I like it George any W is fine by me.
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