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re: SOG Prediction Model Fantasyland - Bama vs OSU, Oklahoma, Michigan, Oregon, Wake and Bonus

Posted on 10/29/21 at 2:36 pm to
Posted by TidalSurge1
Ft Walton Beach
Member since Sep 2016
36467 posts
Posted on 10/29/21 at 2:36 pm to
What if:

Cincy is 13-0/AAC champ
MSU or UM is 13-0 or 12-1/B1G champ
Okla is 13-0 or 12-1/B12 champ
Bama is 12-1/SEC champ, UGA is 12-1
Pitt is 12-1/ACC champ, WF is 12-1
Oregon is 12-1/PAC champ

Final 4?
This post was edited on 10/29/21 at 11:08 pm
Posted by Che Boludo
Member since May 2009
20297 posts
Posted on 10/29/21 at 3:13 pm to
Big, Bama, OU, and ACC/PAC (likely Oregon with tOSU win)

Where the CFP committee places Cincy in 1st rankings could make it interesting, but their SoS drops significantly going forward. They need ND to win out and SMU to still be top 25 when they play to have a shot to edge out a P5. It could come down to how "bad" the 1 Loss teams losses were.
This post was edited on 10/29/21 at 3:14 pm
Posted by TidalSurge1
Ft Walton Beach
Member since Sep 2016
36467 posts
Posted on 10/29/21 at 3:59 pm to
Pitt lost to WMU 44-41. Oregon lost to Stanford 31-24. In the scenario I posted, Oregon's W at tOSU is devalued some by tOSU's MSU/UM L(s).
This post was edited on 10/29/21 at 7:52 pm
Posted by Glorious
Mobile
Member since Aug 2014
25596 posts
Posted on 10/29/21 at 4:57 pm to
quote:

Cincy is 13-0/AAC champ
MSU or UM is 13-0 or 12-1/B1G champ
Okla is 13-0 or 12-1/B12 champ
Bama is 12-1/SEC champ, UGA is 12-1
Pitt is 12-1/ACC champ, WF is 12-1
Oregon is 12-1 PAC champ


These guys are in

Now 12-1 OSU as champion/12-1 runner up Georgia/undefeated cincy is interesting. What if Ohio State and Oregon win out? Can they really justify putting in OSU over an Oregon team with the same record that beat them in tShoe?

Oklahoma has a tough road coming up and most of the good B1G teams have played yet. This season could go full chaos in the coming weeks
This post was edited on 10/29/21 at 5:00 pm
Posted by Che Boludo
Member since May 2009
20297 posts
Posted on 10/29/21 at 5:11 pm to
In that scenario with ACC being overall weak, I think Oregon gets the nod.

Not that is should be a factor (and definitely not a spoken one), but it is probably more important to get the PAC fans/conf back in the CFPs if they can if choosing between Pitt and Oregon

I just really think they'd have a hard time putting Cincy in over a 1 loss P5 Champ when considering overall SoS. But, who knows. Maybe this is the year. Again, I think how the initial CFPs ranks Cincy will be telling
This post was edited on 10/29/21 at 5:14 pm
Posted by Remiden
Member since Jan 2018
1322 posts
Posted on 10/29/21 at 5:20 pm to
They would have a hard time one year, but this would be Cincys serving straight undefeated regular season, and they beat a top ten ND. There is no way they pass them up a second time.
Posted by TidalSurge1
Ft Walton Beach
Member since Sep 2016
36467 posts
Posted on 10/29/21 at 7:43 pm to
Cincy's only remaining ranked opponent, #19 SMU, just might lose to UH tomorrow. It'd help Cincy a lot if ND wins out.
This post was edited on 10/29/21 at 7:47 pm
Posted by TidalSurge1
Ft Walton Beach
Member since Sep 2016
36467 posts
Posted on 10/29/21 at 7:55 pm to
quote:

Oklahoma has a tough road coming up and most of the good B1G teams have played yet. This season could go full chaos in the coming weeks.


Yep. OU still has to play ISU, Baylor & OSU before the Big12 CG. Decent chance OSU or no Big12 team at all gets in the CFP.
This post was edited on 10/29/21 at 8:25 pm
Posted by phil4bama
Emerald Coast of PCB
Member since Jul 2011
11629 posts
Posted on 10/31/21 at 10:59 am to
All due respect, SOG, I love your models and they are usually pretty good but if you're thinking that Auburn model is accurate, you're full of shite. Somehow, that team that was left for dead earlier in the season has put something together that is rather formidable. And that doesn't even factor in the voodoo magic and bullshite calls they will get in that snakepit stadium.
This post was edited on 10/31/21 at 11:02 am
Posted by TidalSurge1
Ft Walton Beach
Member since Sep 2016
36467 posts
Posted on 10/31/21 at 11:42 am to
College Football Playoff: Projecting selection committee's first rankings (247)


quote:

1. GEORGIA (8-0)
2. ALABAMA (7-1)
3. MICHIGAN STATE (8-0)
4. OKLAHOMA (9-0)
5. OREGON (7-1)
6. OHIO STATE (7-1)
7. CINCINNATI (8-0)
8. NOTRE DAME (7-1)
9. WAKE FOREST (8-0)
10. OKLAHOMA STATE (7-1)

Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105102 posts
Posted on 10/31/21 at 2:07 pm to
quote:

All due respect, SOG, I love your models and they are usually pretty good but if you're thinking that Auburn model is accurate, you're full of shite. Somehow, that team that was left for dead earlier in the season has put something together that is rather formidable. And that doesn't even factor in the voodoo magic and bull shite calls they will get in that snakepit stadium.


No doubt. Also, this was before yesterday.
Posted by CrimsonBoz
Member since Sep 2014
18555 posts
Posted on 10/31/21 at 3:49 pm to
Keep in mind, Auburn completely relies on the run. We have been pretty good at stopping it. Their defense is good in some areas, I wouldn’t say elite. I like our chances but we need to not turn it over. Don’t give the crowd a single inch of hope.
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