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re: OT: Alabama Coronavirus Thread (see link in OP for case numbers and death totals in AL)
Posted on 4/1/20 at 8:48 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 4/1/20 at 8:48 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Still at 999 cases in AL. Surely we will cross the 1,000 mark this morning.
17 confirmed deaths now, with 24 reported deaths.
Only time will tell if the pattern holds, but for the last week Alabama's new infections curve has been pretty danged flat.
Starting with 3/12 and ending yesterday
0
6
6
10
7
10
12
27
28
25
26
39
46
198
91
108
81
110
117
52
Everybody talks about total infections, but that's not the meaningful measure. We're several weeks in and some of those early infections have run their course. The important number is how many new cases are coming in every day. Here's hoping that flat trend holds up or even better turns downward.
2
Posted on 4/1/20 at 8:49 am to TidalSurge1
quote:
Has the doc got you on chloroquine
Started on it then moved to hydrochloroquine and that's when my vitals started improving.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 8:52 am to Commander Data
Hey CD,
Keep posting updates. I don't know you, but come here everyday to check on you.
keep getting better man.
Keep posting updates. I don't know you, but come here everyday to check on you.
keep getting better man.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 8:54 am to JustGetItRight
But how much of that has to do with a shortage of tests? I still dont think we're testing enough to really know.
This post was edited on 4/1/20 at 8:55 am
Posted on 4/1/20 at 9:01 am to pvilleguru
quote:
But how much of that has to do with a shortage of tests? I still dont think we're testing enough to really know.
I don't think it matters much. I've got no doubt there are a lot more people with it, but it is an exponential thing. Let's say the numbers are tripled - the growth rate is still flat. They're still testing people and at a higher rate than they were two weeks ago but the number of positive results haven't gone up at a higher rate.
I'm not for one second predicting the pattern will hold - a week isn't enough data - but it is an interesting and hopeful observation.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 9:16 am to Commander Data
quote:
He is Filipino. How did you know?
A Nobel Prize winner in biochemistry is studying the data impact in detail. Seems to hit male Asian and male Italian genome types the quickest (with shortest exposure). 70% of cases world wide are hitting those two male people groups hardest. 80% of those being hospitalized (outside of older with pre-existing issues) also seem to be in those two male geno types. Females and other male geno types appear to require longer exposure.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 9:23 am to JustGetItRight
quote:
They're still testing people and at a higher rate than they were two weeks ago but the number of positive results haven't gone up at a higher rate.
I'm not for one second predicting the pattern will hold - a week isn't enough data - but it is an interesting and hopeful observation.
And test results are still taking a week or more in several areas, so the results are lagging a bit. 2 weeks ago this week is when social distancing efforts really ramped up.
It is a somewhat encouraging trend, but as you said we don't have enough data to infer any conclusions.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 9:28 am to JustGetItRight
quote:
The important number is how many new cases are coming in every day.
Hmm. That is a good point.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 9:32 am to Tw1st3d
quote:
A Nobel Prize winner in biochemistry is studying the data impact in detail. Seems to hit male Asian and male Italian genome types the quickest (with shortest exposure). 70% of cases world wide are hitting those two male people groups hardest. 80% of those being hospitalized (outside of older with pre-existing issues) also seem to be in those two male geno types. Females and other male geno types appear to require longer exposure
Do you have a link? I'm curious to see how they arrived at that conclusion in light of the fact that the 3 hardest hit areas in the world are Asia, Italy, and New York City (where people of Asian and Italian ancestry make up a huge chunk of the population). Seems like a chicken vs. egg kind of thing.
This post was edited on 4/1/20 at 9:33 am
Posted on 4/1/20 at 9:32 am to JustGetItRight
I don't think they are testing at the same rate, though. There have been a ton of anecdotal accounts of people under 50/60 and without any other health conditions simply being sent home without testing. I think the overall # of cases is grossly underestimated. However, the flipside of this is that I think the mortality rate has been exaggerated.
Right now, we're at 999 cases from 7,249 tests. Not sure if anyone was tracking the # of tests as this went along, but that would be interesting to see.
Right now, we're at 999 cases from 7,249 tests. Not sure if anyone was tracking the # of tests as this went along, but that would be interesting to see.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 9:35 am to mre
quote:Private companies have to report their positive tests but not their negative tests. So we really have no idea of how many people have been tested. We just know a minimum.
Right now, we're at 999 cases from 7,249 tests. Not sure if anyone was tracking the # of tests as this went along, but that would be interesting to see.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 9:36 am to pvilleguru
And we just hit 1000 cases. 24 reported deaths, 17 confirmed deaths from COVID-19.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 9:40 am to mre
quote:
There have been a ton of anecdotal accounts of people under 50/60 and without any other health conditions simply being sent home without testing. I think the overall # of cases is grossly underestimated. However, the flipside of this is that I think the mortality rate has been exaggerated.
All of this is absolutely true. The best guide would be the number of people presenting to all providers with flu-like symptoms whether tested or not. The same measures being used to prevent the spread of covid will also prevent the spread of the flu. Unfortunately I don't think there's any way to collect and report those numbers.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 9:42 am to pvilleguru
What is interesting is when I see companies like Labcorp say they can test up to 20000 a day and other places even more then but yet testing numbers in most states are no where near that. Combine that now with many states only testing people with severe symptoms, over 60, and underlying conditions we will never know true numbers.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 9:49 am to JustGetItRight
quote:
All of this is absolutely true. The best guide would be the number of people presenting to all providers with flu-like symptoms whether tested or not. The same measures being used to prevent the spread of covid will also prevent the spread of the flu. Unfortunately I don't think there's any way to collect and report those numbers.
I think way down the road the real measure is going to be comparing the number of flu tests administered in 2020 to the number administered in each of the 5 previous years. I personally know of a couple of people who were experiencing mild symptoms, were given a flu test before a COVID-19 test, and when it came back negative were told they are considered a "presumed positive" fir COVID-19 and instructed to self-isolate for 2 weeks and come back for a test if symptoms got worse. I am assuming those situations are not being officially recorded.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 9:50 am to Robot Santa
I do not have time to retrace what I have been reading the past several days. Dr Michael Levitt at Stanford is the guy.
May be chicken/egg but the information is interesting. Levitt also thinks the bell curve of new cases here in the US is close to starting the downward slope and the worst part will be over in 2/3 weeks. I think he said that by mid May to early June life should return to more normal and could be earlier if social distancing efforts prevent a second wave.
May be chicken/egg but the information is interesting. Levitt also thinks the bell curve of new cases here in the US is close to starting the downward slope and the worst part will be over in 2/3 weeks. I think he said that by mid May to early June life should return to more normal and could be earlier if social distancing efforts prevent a second wave.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 10:15 am to Tw1st3d
God I hope so
This post was edited on 4/1/20 at 10:17 am
Posted on 4/1/20 at 10:20 am to Tw1st3d
With the advent of antibody tests for COVID-19, has anyone seen any widespread studies that would indicate how many positive results we've seen thus far?
I would be curious as to how this correlates with the theory that this virus has been circulating here for some time - that is, if we see a significant number of the population with antibodies, could that mean that many have already had it (perhaps asymptomatically or mildly) and recovered?
I would be curious as to how this correlates with the theory that this virus has been circulating here for some time - that is, if we see a significant number of the population with antibodies, could that mean that many have already had it (perhaps asymptomatically or mildly) and recovered?
Posted on 4/1/20 at 10:28 am to paperwasp
From the OT:
Projecting 7-8K deaths by August for Alabama
quote:
You can click on where it says "United States of America" to get a slide down menu to any state you want to look at for graphs. Alabama now projecting more than twice the number of deaths per day at the peak than states like California and Florida, yet states like Georgia, Tennessee and Mississippi all around them remain the same - much lower. Where do you project the hotbed in Alabama to be located? I haven't seen that info - yet.
Projecting 7-8K deaths by August for Alabama
Posted on 4/1/20 at 10:37 am to 1BamaRTR
Saw that but with comparisons it has to be a mistake
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