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re: OT: Alabama Coronavirus Thread (see link in OP for case numbers and death totals in AL)
Posted on 4/17/20 at 8:03 am to TideWarrior
Posted on 4/17/20 at 8:03 am to TideWarrior
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A new report from the U.N. Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) says that the continent of around 1.3 billion people could see as many as 300,000 deaths from the coronavirus in the best-case scenario.
It says in the worst-case scenario, where there is no intervention against the outbreak, as many as 3.3 million people could die, with 1.2 billion — the vast majority of Africa's population — contracting the disease, The Associated Press reports.
Even with “intense social distancing," according to the report, Africa could still see 122 million cases of the virus that has killed over 146,000 people worldwide.
This is where the real concern is for long term. They do not have the resources to contain this. So it will take a lot longer to cure there which means it could become the epicenter for the planet and cause more waves to come in the future.
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Posted on 4/17/20 at 8:07 am to JustGetItRight
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On the other hand, a friend’s wife has a custom clothing and embroidery shop in our little downtown area. It draws in a whopping tens of people a day and there are rarely more than a couple in the store at any time. SHUT THAT ‘RONA SPREADING CESSPOOL DOWN RIGHT NOW!
I get this, but it would be an impossible task for officials to pick and choose which businesses can remain open based on foot traffic. A whole lot more efficient to just deem businesses either essential or non-essential. Of course, everyone's definition of what is essential is different. Wife and I have been arguing for 2 weeks about going to Home Depot to get flowers to plant. She thinks it's essential, while I do not. Granted some of my thinking is influenced by how crowded Home Depot has been the handful of times I've driven past it. Beer, wine, and food are really the only things I find essential right now. Certainly if I had an emergency repair needed at the house, I'd be thankful Home Depot was still open.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 8:28 am to The Spleen
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I get this, but it would be an impossible task for officials to pick and choose which businesses can remain open based on foot traffic.
I'm saying they shouldn't even try. It's too hard because so many stores are multi-discipline. Ivey's order specifically closed "department stores." Wal-mart, K-mart, Dollar General, and Target are literally the textbook definition of a department store - but they cannot be closed because in many places they're the primary retailer for life essentials.
A much better approach would have been (and still would be) to implement the reduced store capacity limits on all retailers and let them keep their people working. The larger box stores where they've got a higher level of staffing can accurately monitor their customer count. The small mom and pops don't have enough customers at one time to matter.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 8:30 am to The Spleen
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California isn't in dire circumstances because Newsom acted quickly.
Actually there are growing concerns in CA right now especially in the undocumented population which includes members of their family who are documented that all afraid to go get tested or go to the hospital.
The other issue in the state of CA is lack of testing overall. The state has close to 40 million people and only 230,000 people have been tested. So when only .005 of the population has been tested it is hard to see how well their measures or quick reaction has actually helped any.
Now in their defense they may have the greatest issue for containing the epidemic due to the major logistical issues the state. Newsome just said they do not expect the peak until middle or end of May there. But no one can tell with their limited testing and other underlying demographic issues if their early reactions have help.
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Washington was the first epicenter in the country, but it has stabilized there because Inslee acted quickly.
They were mainly because the nursing home that it ran through quickly sounded the first major alarm in the country. But confused how Gov Inslee reacted quickly. He did not issue state wide stay at home order until March 23rd, which is around the same time over a dozen other states did as well. CA was the the first and the only one the week before to issue a state wide order.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 8:39 am to JustGetItRight
quote:
I'm saying they shouldn't even try. It's too hard because so many stores are multi-discipline. Ivey's order specifically closed "department stores." Wal-mart, K-mart, Dollar General, and Target are literally the textbook definition of a department store - but they cannot be closed because in many places they're the primary retailer for life essentials.
A much better approach would have been (and still would be) to implement the reduced store capacity limits on all retailers and let them keep their people working. The larger box stores where they've got a higher level of staffing can accurately monitor their customer count. The small mom and pops don't have enough customers at one time to matter.
Where I have an issue is how alcohol is an essential need. In NC the state runs all liquor stores called ABC stores. They only sell alcohol are considered essential. Which I believe it is considered that because it is state controled for revenue.
Now a mattress store is allowed to stay open because they sell beds they people can get through prescription that is covered by their insurance. One store was warned they could be fined because they did tape off and prevent customers from looking at other mattresses.
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A much better approach would have been (and still would be) to implement the reduced store capacity limits on all retailers and let them keep their people working.
This is a now a requirement in NC for every store including Walmart. 5 customers allowed in store per 1000 sq ft or 20% of fire capacity. Plastic shields are also required at all registers. Every morning from 7-8am is special shopping hours only for seniors and people with disabilities.
Form the start though I believe they should have just shut down for these essentials stores like grocery stores and the Walmarts for inside shopping. They are already setup for curbside pickup via online ordering. Place your order roll up have it loaded and go home. Keeps the store employees safer, limit contact for everyone, also prevents the hoarding, while allowing the stores to stock and limit what people actually need. These employees are not getting paid enough to deal with possible exposures and customers who want to fight over how much toilet paper they allowed to buy.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 8:41 am
Posted on 4/17/20 at 8:51 am to JustGetItRight
I agree with you about current and potential damage to small businesses. Maybe I'm too cynical but I also imagine 95% of the supposed government help for "small businesses" end up in the bank accounts of a lot bigger businesses than your friends.
I personally own a record shop in Brooklyn and have no idea when I'll reopen.
Sweden provides some model for re-opening. However, they Sweden has some major differences and also advantages over the US:
The Swedish version of Fauci gave an interview in which he said the differences in Sweden have been overblown and misunderstood.
1. Swedes like to follow directions for the common good:
He said Swedes "trusted the advice of their government and have complied in extreme numbers" and "They choose to do the right thing without the need to forced to do it". Some of that bragging but there's a lot of truth to it. The US, unfortunately, is more like Italy in this regard: you tell people that NYC will be under strict lockdown and 1/3 of the city just thinks about themselves. They immediately fly to their beach home in Florida or back to their small towns all over the US and make the situation even worse.
2. Paid Sick Leave: The importance of this can not be understated when you want the model to work where people quarantine voluntarily and not spread it around. Every in the nation employee has paid sick leave. Swedish waitresses, supermarket checkout girls and bus drivers will not lose paychecks if they stay at home with mild symptoms.
I personally own a record shop in Brooklyn and have no idea when I'll reopen.
quote:
Sweden
Sweden provides some model for re-opening. However, they Sweden has some major differences and also advantages over the US:
The Swedish version of Fauci gave an interview in which he said the differences in Sweden have been overblown and misunderstood.
1. Swedes like to follow directions for the common good:
He said Swedes "trusted the advice of their government and have complied in extreme numbers" and "They choose to do the right thing without the need to forced to do it". Some of that bragging but there's a lot of truth to it. The US, unfortunately, is more like Italy in this regard: you tell people that NYC will be under strict lockdown and 1/3 of the city just thinks about themselves. They immediately fly to their beach home in Florida or back to their small towns all over the US and make the situation even worse.
2. Paid Sick Leave: The importance of this can not be understated when you want the model to work where people quarantine voluntarily and not spread it around. Every in the nation employee has paid sick leave. Swedish waitresses, supermarket checkout girls and bus drivers will not lose paychecks if they stay at home with mild symptoms.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 8:58 am to wm72
quote:
Maybe I'm too cynical but I also imagine 95% of the supposed government help for "small businesses" end up in the bank accounts of a lot bigger businesses than your friends.
I actually don't think this is happening (actually I know it isn't happening). My non-profit and small business clients (some of which are very small, others are pretty big) have almost all gotten money from PPP in the last week since we recommended they apply as soon as the window opened. Although my cynical side had the same apprehension as you when it was announced.
The bigger issue is that they've already run out of money because they are giving it out so liberally to all small businesses (which was the point). It was a bit of a shite show early on, but for something thrown together so last minute and that relied on banks on the front line to do a lot of the grunt work it actually worked surprisingly well logistically.
But again, the bigger issue is the piggy bank is already picked clean.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 8:59 am
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:32 am to TideWarrior
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This is a now a requirement in NC for every store including Walmart. 5 customers allowed in store per 1000 sq ft or 20% of fire capacity. Plastic shields are also required at all registers. Every morning from 7-8am is special shopping hours only for seniors and people with disabilities.
Alabama has a 50% capacity based on fire rating. As I type this, I can't remember if the shields and special hours are actually required but everybody has the shields and many have special hours.
A Wal-Mart superstore runs 180-190,000 square feet so even with the 20% fire rating capacity you're talking about allowing several hundred customers in the store at once.
I couldn't disagree more on shutting down for all but pickup. That would have done even further damage to the economy and even more importantly people's psychological state.
I don't think you can overestimate how helpful keeping the stores open at reduced capacity would benefit us. For starters, the obvious result would be more people would be at work - but just as important would be how much and how long they'd be willing and able to tolerate restrictions. They aren't going to accept what's happening now for very much longer and then you're going to see large scale civil disobedience. If, on the other hand, all these places were able to keep the doors open at a lower capacity you'd see people willing to accept that for months.
Note - again, this is situational and speaking most specifically about the situation as it exists here in Alabama. Places like New York where there is a much larger problem and a much more difficult people management problem (namely population density) would have to react accordingly.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 9:43 am
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:41 am to JustGetItRight
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If, on the other hand, all these places were able to keep the doors open at a lower capacity you'd see people willing to accept that for months.
I'm fairly confident this will be the next step taken in May and will probably be the norm until a vaccine is finalized in most of the country.
Open things back up but with distancing and smaller "capacity" limits. Some will more difficult to figure out than others (restaurants, for one, though the individual choice to walk in and pick up food rather than have a sit-down meal may make that choice for them).
Certain businesses are built on close contact (hair cuts, for example). Not sure how that will play out.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 9:42 am
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:41 am to SummerOfGeorge
I really hope most places don't wait until May.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:43 am to JustGetItRight
quote:
I really hope most places don't wait until May.
Some places may do some basic forms of re-opening, but my guess is the real full scale "new normal" in most of the country full-scale will start in May.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:46 am to SummerOfGeorge
Also, and I'm guessing most here have read between the lines on this, almost EVERYONE who has any knowledge of this whole thing has made it clear that on the scale of 1 being "we can go ahead and do it now" and 10 being the "gotta wait for a vaccine" that packing people together in giant groups is absolutely without a doubt a 10. MOST of the economy is somewhere between 1-5 and can go back to some level of normal, but it just happens that the thing we all really enjoy is cleary basically the worst thing that you can do in a virus situation.
It's stupid to make proclamations in an ever-changing situation like this, but it is really, really, really hard to see any sort of packed stadium situation occurring at any point before a vaccine is distributed.
It's stupid to make proclamations in an ever-changing situation like this, but it is really, really, really hard to see any sort of packed stadium situation occurring at any point before a vaccine is distributed.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 9:47 am
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:47 am to SummerOfGeorge
I think the issues with the PPP were more with the banks processing them, but that is anecdotal from things I've heard and read. I know of 2 people that applied the first day through Regions that did not get any funding, and I know another that applied late last week with a smaller, local bank that got funding yesterday. Money board has a few similar stories. Seems like the bigger banks had some efficiency issues the smaller banks did not.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:48 am to SummerOfGeorge
Yeah, I'd agree that widespread will probably be May - particularly the urban areas.
I think restaurants will be really easy. Just take out half the seats so that you create space, go to printed single use menus, and really enforce sanitizing tables/booths between customers.
I also think the hair cut/beauty shop problem is pretty straightforward too. Those plastic face shields you see all the doctors and nurses wearing work just as well to protect a barber and customer from infecting each other.
The biggest challenge that may not be solvable are places like bars and nightclubs where the entire reason the business exists is so people DON'T social distance.
quote:
Open things back up but with distancing and smaller "capacity" limits. Some will more difficult to figure out than others (restaurants, for one, though the individual choice to walk in and pick up food rather than have a sit-down meal may make that choice for them).
Certain businesses are built on close contact (hair cuts, for example). Not sure how that will play out.
I think restaurants will be really easy. Just take out half the seats so that you create space, go to printed single use menus, and really enforce sanitizing tables/booths between customers.
I also think the hair cut/beauty shop problem is pretty straightforward too. Those plastic face shields you see all the doctors and nurses wearing work just as well to protect a barber and customer from infecting each other.
The biggest challenge that may not be solvable are places like bars and nightclubs where the entire reason the business exists is so people DON'T social distance.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:49 am to The Spleen
quote:
I think the issues with the PPP were more with the banks processing them, but that is anecdotal from things I've heard and read. I know of 2 people that applied the first day through Regions that did not get any funding, and I know another that applied late last week with a smaller, local bank that got funding yesterday. Money board has a few similar stories. Seems like the bigger banks had some efficiency issues the smaller banks did not.
Yep - most of our quick success cases were with folks who went to their regional or local bank that they had a relationship with. Most of our issues were either (a) the first few days where the rules/guidelines were literally changing hourly and (b) those who went to national/international banks (Wells, BOA).
A lot of those regional/local banks are clients, too, and there is definite concern there about whether they make any money at all with this whole thing (most are expecting a loss). However, it's nice for them to "win" a battle with the conglomerate banks for a change.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:51 am to JustGetItRight
quote:
The biggest challenge that may not be solvable are places like bars and nightclubs where the entire reason the business exists is so people DON'T social distance.
Yep - agree. It'll all be interesting. I enjoy human behavior and social science and while something like this is awful it's fascinating to watch humans (and especially Americans) forced to find ways to solve problems, because normally they do.
Things like this basically take that sort of stuff and compact 10 years worth of slow progress into a 3-month window. It will be really interesting to see the things folks come up with.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 10:05 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Things like this basically take that sort of stuff and compact 10 years worth of slow progress into a 3-month window. It will be really interesting to see the things folks come up with.
I believe the "work from home" phenomenon will continue to some degree from here on out. We've certainly had the technology, but many businesses were slow to adapt. I can't imagine certain sectors ever returning to business as usual, and this event could be the impetus for many such changes, IMO.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 10:09 am to paperwasp
quote:
I believe the "work from home" phenomenon will continue to some degree from here on out. We've certainly had the technology, but many businesses were slow to adapt. I can't imagine certain sectors ever returning to business as usual, and this event could be the impetus for many such changes, IMO.
Yep - our firm had really accepted it from a partner level in the last 2-3 years, but this has finalized it for some of the stragglers I think.
More interestingly is that we've been trying to push some clients to do more virtual stuff (sharing documents, less of the stringent "2-3 weeks in the field" stuff) and a lot of them are realizing that they have all the tech they need to do that...........and that it is a little nicer not having us sitting 2 offices down breathing down theirs necks for a month
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 10:12 am
Posted on 4/17/20 at 10:12 am to SummerOfGeorge
I think there are some types of high capacity events that will start back pretty soon too.
Disney's already announced that when they reopen they're going to add temp checks as part of the entry process. That's a good idea that would be worth keeping forever. In their case, it won't even add a significant delay to park entry since they already check bags.
In the case of college and pro sports or any other ticketed event (particularly with assigned seating), you do the same thing on the front side. On the back side, if someone develops the virus you contact trace.
It isn't as far fetched as it sounds. For example, as I've said in this thread I'm an EMT (working a shift right now). When this first started, if we had a possible exposure to COVID you went into 14 day self quarantine. Now, if you're wearing your mask and eye protection there's no quarantine and you self monitor. If the patient is wearing a mask, even if you're not wearing eye protection you still just self monitor.
Over time, the fear is easing up as folks realize this is manageable.
Edited to add - big events returning require a fast test so that everyone sitting within x seats of Section J Row 16, seat 23 can take 15 minutes and get cleared.
Disney's already announced that when they reopen they're going to add temp checks as part of the entry process. That's a good idea that would be worth keeping forever. In their case, it won't even add a significant delay to park entry since they already check bags.
In the case of college and pro sports or any other ticketed event (particularly with assigned seating), you do the same thing on the front side. On the back side, if someone develops the virus you contact trace.
It isn't as far fetched as it sounds. For example, as I've said in this thread I'm an EMT (working a shift right now). When this first started, if we had a possible exposure to COVID you went into 14 day self quarantine. Now, if you're wearing your mask and eye protection there's no quarantine and you self monitor. If the patient is wearing a mask, even if you're not wearing eye protection you still just self monitor.
Over time, the fear is easing up as folks realize this is manageable.
Edited to add - big events returning require a fast test so that everyone sitting within x seats of Section J Row 16, seat 23 can take 15 minutes and get cleared.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 10:15 am
Posted on 4/17/20 at 10:16 am to JustGetItRight
quote:
Disney's already announced that when they reopen they're going to add temp checks as part of the entry process. That's a good idea that would be worth keeping forever. In their case, it won't even add a significant delay to park entry since they already check bags.
In the case of college and pro sports or any other ticketed event (particularly with assigned seating), you do the same thing on the front side. On the back side, if someone develops the virus you contact trace.
Good points - the whole preventative/constant check thing is one of the changes I'm most interested in, especially in how it impacts some of our other viral diseases. If more spacing/constant temperature checks just became a part of normal American life, how might that affect the cold, flu, etc? Really interested to see that over the next few years.
quote:
Edited to add - big events returning require a fast test so that everyone sitting within x seats of Section J Row 16, seat 23 can take 15 minutes and get cleared.
Yep - the fast test thing is definitely a gamechanger IF it is readily available. With it, we can really do a lot more "normal" stuff.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 10:18 am
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